NGI’s Hub & Flow

Dive into the balance of winter price forecast as NGI’s Kevin Dobbs, senior markets editor, interviews Paragon Global Markets LLC’s Steve Blair, managing director of institutional energy sales. The two discuss the winter ahead in natural gas markets and explore the potential price catalysts.  Blair covers the strengthening production and stout storage situation, as well as domestic weather in LNG demand. He also addresses potential wild cards for 2025, including the ongoing buildout of the U.S. export complex and the incoming Trump administration’s plans for steep new tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico.

Natural gas demand continues to defy forecasts calling for renewables to halt the fuel's growth in the Lower 48. That’s no surprise to one clean energy investor, Prithvi Ventures’ Rakesh Radhakrishnan, who spoke with NGI’s senior markets editor Chris Newman about how lifecycle costs and other factors would continue to play a huge role in decision making for power resources.

Mexico is the United States’ largest trading partner, with about 75% of the country’s natural gas originating from the Lower 48 states. Cross-border energy trade in 2023 reached $66.5 billion, and imports of U.S. natural gas have increased for years as Mexico’s domestic production has decreased.  With Mexico President Sheinbaum’s recent inauguration, however, the role of state-owned energy companies has been put in question. Now, with former President Trump’s re-election, NGI’s Andrew Baker, senior editor, sits down with Christopher Lenton, senior editor for Mexico and Latin America, to discuss how the cross-border energy trade may evolve. Baker and Lenton dive into the implications for Mexico’s export projects should Trump reverse the Biden administration’s LNG permit pause, as well as the outlook for natural gas demand in both Mexico and the United States as nearshoring and power generation needs evolve.

Spark Commodities CEO Tim Mendelssohn joins NGI's managing editor of LNG, Jamison Cocklin, to discuss how bearish market fundamentals have been driving down freight rates for LNG cargoes. A “massive vessel oversupply,” combined with delays in U.S. LNG export projects, has pushed freight rates well below market expectations.  Mendelssohn explains why these rates could remain low for the foreseeable future and explores the potential implications for the LNG shipping market as new export facilities come online in the years to come.

NGI LNG editors Jamison Cocklin and Jacob Dick discuss the upcoming election and what a Harris or Trump presidency could mean for the U.S. LNG sector. They explore how either candidate may approach new export projects after a lengthy pause on authorizations that was imposed by the Biden administration. The conversation also focuses on Trump's tariff proposals and a potential trade war with China, as well as how down-ballot races could impact U.S. exports.

An "impressive" 500 million tons/year of capacity for carbon capture utilization and sequestration (CCUS) projects in the United States are on the drawing board, designed to trap emissions from natural gas and oil projects. Those ambitions, though, have been tempered by uncertainties that include permitting challenges and public opposition. NGI's Carolyn Davis, managing editor of news, discussed the status of the domestic CCUS sector with Enverus Intelligence Research's CCUS expert Graham Bain, who leads the subsurface group for the energy transition team. The supermajors – including ExxonMobil, Chevron Corp., Equinor SA and TotalEnergies SE – are bankrolling several big projects, mostly in Louisiana and Texas. As Bain explained, if all the U.S. projects now in the queue were to be sanctioned, it would require an overall investment of $73 billion, with nearly one-half poured into carbon technologies and nearly one-third into carbon dioxide pipelines. The challenges are big, but the opportunities are too, he explains.

NGI senior markets editor Jodi Shafto interviews Andy Huenefeld, managing partner at Pinebrook Energy Advisors and contributor to The Energy Buyers Guide report. Huenefeld discusses key factors for the Lower 48 winter heating season that begins on Nov. 1.

NGI’s Christopher Lenton, senior editor for Mexico & Latin America, sits down with one of the leading voices in Mexico's energy sector and the former head of Comisión Reguladora de Energía, Guillermo García Alcocer. The two discuss what could be on the horizon as Claudia Sheinbaum takes the presidential office in Mexico on Oct. 1, including potential shifts in Mexico’s energy regulatory bodies. In addition, with the Sheinbaum administration’s plans for transitioning Mexico’s electric generation mix coming to a head with rising energy demand, García Alcocer explains what could be required of both domestic natural gas supplies as well as U.S. imports. How could Mexico’s electricity, exploration and production, and LNG sectors be impacted by nearshoring? How could Mexico’s relationship with the United States be impacted as the two work to build their economies?

With natural gas prices having hovered around $2/MMBtu through much of 2024, NGI’s Pat Rau, senior vice president for Research & Analysis, delves into what may happen with producer activity moving into next year. Publicly traded producers have been on a tight leash the last five years in terms of production growth, he notes. With new LNG export capacity around the corner, however, publicly traded Lower 48 exploration and production (E&P) firms may push annual gas production above 5% year/year growth in 2025. Rau highlights other key developments at the end of 2024, particularly for Permian Basin E&Ps.  Meanwhile, as discussions on artificial intelligence-driven data centers turned the tide on estimates for peak natural gas-fired generation earlier this year, Rau covers the latest prognostications for the emerging demand source.

From rising costs, construction delays and an increasing number of regulatory hurdles, U.S. LNG projects have seen a bevy of challenges this year, but how impactful really are the new obstacles? Baker Botts' Jason Bennett, department chair of global projects and co-chair of energy, discusses the near-term global natural gas market dynamics and domestic policies shaping the development of U.S. liquefied natural gas export capacity with NGI's Senior LNG Editor Jacob Dick.    Despite rising complications, there is still strong demand for LNG, according to Bennett. One way or another, buyers will seek to fill LNG demand – and the U.S. natural gas market remains a strong supplier.

Susan Sakmar, a visiting law professor at the University of Houston Law Center and board member at Flex LNG Ltd., joins NGI’s LNG Managing Editor Jamison Cocklin to discuss the state of the global natural gas market as summer nears an end.    The two review geopolitical tensions and supply security issues that are likely to factor heavily into the liquefied natural gas market this winter heating season. The conversation covers the recent court decision impacting Rio Grande and Texas LNG projects that could have far-reaching impacts for other export terminals under development. Sakmar and Cocklin also discuss some of the key events that have shaped the market in recent years, and how they are likely to influence its future.

Halfway through the summer, U.S. natural gas prices have struggled to gain momentum. NGI's team of markets reporters discuss the supply and demand factors at play in the market, and where natural gas prices may be heading into the winter and beyond.

Poten & Partners LNG industry analyst Sergio Chapa sits down with NGI’s Christopher Lenton, senior editor for Mexico & Latin America, to survey the current North American liquefied natural gas industry scene. They talk through the impacts of former Hurricane Beryl on Gulf Coast infrastructure. Chapa and Lenton also discuss the state of the Biden administration’s pause on U.S.-based LNG export projects and the implications for international competitors. Has the pause given impetus to other projects? How are Mexico LNG projects advancing in the wake of the regulatory back-and-forth?

CEO Amy Andryszak of the Interstate Natural Gas Association of America sits down with NGI's Carolyn Davis, managing editor of News, to share the opportunities and the concerns ahead for natural gas operators. Natural gas consumption is tracking higher, with industrial, commercial and residential use growing. Data centers are on the radar, as are expanded LNG exports. The question is, can natural gas pipeline capacity keep pace in light of the regulatory hurdles operators have to jump?

Join NGI's Patrick Rau, senior vice president of Research & Analysis, for his quarterly review of North American natural gas earnings calls as he discusses the possibility of EQT Corp. reversing output cuts. Other factors are expected to influence markets at the start of summer, including a slowdown in merger and acquisition approvals. Plus, the latest on data center opportunities and updates on Canada and Mexico.

Mexicans head to the polls this weekend in the biggest election in the country's history, with over 20,000 positions up for grabs and the near certainty that citizens will elect Mexico’s first female president. Claudia Sheinbaum of the establishment Morena party is the favorite against opposition candidate Xóchitl Gálvez. Each offers a distinct vision for the country's future. In this episode of Hub & Flow, NGI’s senior editor for Mexico and Latin America, Christopher Lenton, chats with natural gas expert Eduardo Prud'homme on both candidates' main policy positions. They also get into the energy deficits in Mexico, U.S.-Mexico natural gas trade, and what the country’s gas market could look like under the potential future administrations, along with a lot more.

In this episode of NGI’s Hub and Flow, NGI’s Carolyn Davis, managing editor, is joined by Carson Kearl, the lead analyst for Enverus Intelligence Research about data centers and advanced energy technologies. Power generation for the energy-intensive centers is expected to grow across the Lower 48 by double-digits in the next few years, and Kearl shares recent Enverus research on the implications for the domestic natural gas market.

Neil Chatterjee, a former FERC chairman and commissioner, joins NGI’s Jamison Cocklin, managing editor of LNG, to discuss the political and regulatory aspects of President Biden’s pause on authorizing new liquefied natural gas export projects.   Chatterjee, currently an environmental and energy attorney at Hogan Lovells in Washington, DC, discusses the legality of the pause, the U.S. LNG review process and the deadlock at FERC that’s slowing down projects like Venture Global LNG Inc.’s CP2 facility.

Energy and environmental policy expert Chris Treanor, executive director of the Partnership to Address Global Emissions (PAGE), joins NGI Senior Editor of LNG Jacob Dick to recap some of the highlights from CERAWeek by S&P Global in Houston and what could be ahead for the natural gas industry during this election year. Treanor and Dick discuss the need for constructive policies around LNG and natural gas generally, in order to meet climate goals while protecting energy security for the United States and its allies. Treanor shares his reaction to comments made by Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm at the conference, as well as his thoughts on the Biden administration’s pause of LNG export approvals.

In the latest episode of NGI’s Hub & Flow, NGI Senior Markets Editor Kevin Dobbs interviews Paragon Global Markets LLC’s Steve Blair, managing director of institutional energy sales.   Blair addresses production and supplies in storage, domestic weather and LNG demand, and sets the stage for the summer ahead in natural gas markets.    Blair noted that, while prices are currently suppressed following a mild winter and record production during the heating season, natural gas output in recent weeks has come off record highs. Major producers such as Chesapeake Energy and EQT Corp. have publicly announced efforts to scale back production to align supply/demand. Forecasts, meanwhile, point to another hot summer. Longer term, LNG export facilities are poised to open soon on the Gulf Coast to meet growing global gas needs. Should demand rise in parallel with lower production, markets could rally.   Blair and Dobbs delve into the state of natural gas markets.