Statistically Speaking

Statistically Speaking

Statistically Speaking is the Office for National Statistics' podcast, offering in-depth interviews on the latest hot topics in the world of data, taking a peek behind the scenes of the UK’s largest independent producer of official statistics and exploring the stories behind the numbers. read less
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Green Data: Measuring the Environment
02-08-2024
Green Data: Measuring the Environment
In this episode we explore how the ONS measures our natural environment and the green economy.        Relevant datasets: ONS Environmental Accounts    Transcript     MILES FLETCHER   Welcome again to Statistically Speaking, the official podcast of the UK’s Office for National Statistics. I'm Miles Fletcher and this time we're getting back to nature as we explore the work of the ONS in measuring the economic and social value of the natural environment.   Is classical economic growth - as measured by gross domestic product or GDP - always achieved at the expense of the environment? What price can we put on the amenities our environment provides? What is the green economy and what are green jobs? And what are the key data to watch as policymakers strive for net zero carbon emissions, while also seeking to improve national prosperity?   Our guides through the rich and perhaps under explored landscape of environmental data are ONS’s Deputy Director for Environmental Statistics Analysis, Ian Townsend; Head of Natural Capital Accounts, Gemma Thomas; and Sophie Barrand, Monetary Accounts lead in the Environmental Accounts team.   Welcome to you all.  Ian to come to you first. The ONS is mainly known for measuring the economy and the population of the UK. So, what exactly is its role when it comes to the environment? What are we seeking to achieve?  What do we do? What do we publish?   IAN TOWNSEND So the environment is quite a broad topic that links with a lot of other issues and a lot of different national and devolved government departments and other related bodies producing statistics on the environment. And with all that range of statistics, we tend to focus at the ONS on the intersections between our environment and both the economy and society. This includes measuring what we call the Low Carbon and renewable energy economy, how many green jobs there are, the greenhouse gas emissions produced by different economic sectors, and valuing the services that nature provides to us, as well as providing rapid insights into what people and business think about climate change in the environment and their actions or indeed otherwise.    MF And what are the major publications that come out of the ONS that people ought to be looking at to get a sense of what we're saying about the environment and its value?   IT So I mentioned a couple in the introduction there - things like low carbon and renewable energy economy, green jobs, etc... and our emissions figures. But perhaps one that is quite worth bringing to the fore is our natural capital accounts. So, it's something we've done for several years, which basically looks at the value that ecosystems provide to nature and ecosystems provide to us, and the services that provides. So, we bring this out as a report every year - have done so for several years - and that looks beyond the economy, beyond gross domestic product, to look at all those natural resources and we found that in 2021, the total value of all those natural assets was around one and a half trillion pounds. It’s such a big figure, I think it can be quite hard for people to grasp. But a useful comparison might be that it's not that far off the 1.7 trillion pounds that homes in the UK were valued at in 2021 as well.   MF It's very difficult to arrive at a financial figure or value like that. Can you just give us a brief explanation of how it’s calculated?    IT Sure. So, there are internationally agreed guidelines that we follow around how to measure or indeed account for the current value of what natural capital could provide for us and our current and future generations. And all that process, all those guidelines are aligned with how we measure the GDP in the economy. It's really quite a complex exercise and includes things like the value of trees, rivers, peatlands, and many other habitats and natural resources in them. We've been developing and improving these approaches for probably at least 10 years, and probably have some of the most developed accounts in this form globally. Our estimates have improved over the years. But there are some things that we don't cover. So, in a way, this is probably best seen as a kind of partial and minimum value, even though it's already very large. And it's also part of a wider mission that the ONS has to capture the value of what's called missing capital, things that we don't currently measure so well in gross domestic product. So that's including social capital as well as natural capital. So that's called ‘inclusive wealth’ and that's another publication the ONS produces that people might be interested to have a look at.   MF And it's important, I guess, to have this economic value of the environment so that can be compared against the traditional measure of economic progress and prosperity, which of course is GDP. And it's sometimes – and we've heard this in other podcasts - because GDP is like the big beast of the economic statistical world. It's very important, it's very influential, but of course it does have significant weaknesses and omissions, and notably its lack of account for environmental factors being notoriously one of those.   IT Sure. And actually, there's a process going on right now internationally that would bring some of that into the way that we measure some of the key economic indicators. But I think one of the key things you say is putting out there is a measure of how our natural capital assets are doing. But I think the other real benefit of these statistics, and particularly the natural capital accounts, is that it helps literally to account for nature to give an estimate of some of the benefits that the environment does provide. So, when people make decisions, they can take that into account. We're not exactly saying that nature has this given value. It's more that that's the value that we've estimated so far that provides those. It helps people to make sure that when they're taking their decisions, they take into account what would happen if we reduced or depleted that natural capital, and indeed, the benefits we might get in the future if we were to increase that natural capital as well.   MF Because – and this is the other side of the question – high per capita GDP often goes with high carbon emissions in an economy, doesn't it? This way, we can look at the other side of the balance sheet and say, well, yes, you might be achieving this high economic performance in traditional terms, but look at the cost on the other side and, as you say, this is part of a big international movement to recognize that called ‘beyond GDP’, which is a topic we've covered in previous podcasts already.     IT Sure.  I think, just getting back to your point around GDP and emissions one of the things that we produce in the ONS is a piece around a different emissions measurements there are, and actually if you look at those, you'll see that over time, all those measures have been reducing. So there is an element to which whilst the economy is expanding, we are actually reducing emissions on all three different measures that are available.    MF And we say the environment is - we're putting it at 1.5 trillion pounds – that's the capital value of the natural environment, broadly equivalent to the value of all the houses in the UK. Some people might say that's a low figure perhaps you can think we measure human capital being much, much greater than that but that's a debate for another time. But explain for us who is using this number, how does it inform decision making at the moment at national and local level? How might it influence policymakers in future do you think?    IT Sure, I think it's not necessarily about the big number at the top although that is one that will get a lot of interest from people and as you say, it might be an underestimate. I mentioned that there are some aspects of nature that we don't currently measure. But in terms of how it's used lots and lots of detail that's available underneath that key figure in the natural capital accounts we publish every year, at kind of macro level. The figures we use are important considerations for decision making by UK and devolved governments. So Defra published a policy paper, for example, on the accounts, I think, a couple of years back, which looked at what the key takeaways for policy there were from there, and we think that some of the figures were used in some of the bids that departments put in for the 2021 Spending Review. I think at the micro level figures are
AI: The Future of Data
20-05-2024
AI: The Future of Data
With the public release of large language models like Chat GPT putting Artificial Intelligence (AI) firmly on our radar, this episode explores what benefits this technology might hold for statistics and analysis, as well as policymaking and public services.  Joining host, Miles Fletcher, to discuss the groundbreaking work being done in this area by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) and across the wider UK Government scene are: Osama Rahman, Director of the ONS Data Science Campus; Richard Campbell, Head of Reproducible Data Science and Analysis; and Sam Rose, Deputy Director of Advanced Analytics and Head of Data Science and AI at the Department for Transport.  Transcript MILES FLETCHER Welcome again to Statistically Speaking, the official podcast of the UK’s Office for National Statistics. I'm Miles Fletcher and, if you've been a regular listener to these podcasts, you'll have heard plenty of the natural intelligence displayed by my ONS colleagues. This time though, we're looking into the artificial stuff. We'll discuss the work being done by the ONS to take advantage of this great technological leap forward; what's going on with AI across the wider UK Government scene; and also talk about the importance of making sure every use of AI is carried out safely and responsibly. Guiding us through that are my ONS colleagues - with some of the most impressive job titles we've had to date - Osama Rahman is Director of the Data Science Campus. Richard Campbell is Head of Reproducible Data Science and Analysis. And completing our lineup, Sam Rose, Deputy Director of Advanced Analytics and head of data science and AI at the Department for Transport. Welcome to you all. Osama let's kick off then with some clarity on this AI thing. It's become the big phrase of our time now of course but when it comes to artificial intelligence and public data, what precisely are we talking about? OSAMA RAHMANSo artificial intelligence quite simply is the simulation of human intelligence processes by computing systems, and the simulation is the important bit, I think. Actually, people talk about data science, and they talk about machine learning - there's no clear-cut boundaries between these things, and there's a lot of overlap. So, you think about data science. It's the study of data to extract meaningful insights. It's multidisciplinary – maths, stats, computer programming, domain expertise, and you analyse large amounts of data to ask and answer questions. And then you think about machine learning. So that focuses on the development of computer algorithms that improve automatically through experience and by the use of data. So, in other words, machine learning enables computers to learn from data and make decisions or predictions without explicitly being programmed to do so. So, if you think about some of the stuff we do at the ONS, it's very important to be able to take a job and match it to an industrial classification - so that was a manually intensive process and now we use a lot of machine learning to guide that. So, machine learning is essentially a form of AI. MILES FLETCHERSo is it fair to say then that the reason, or one of the main reasons, people are talking so much about AI now is because of the public release of these large language models? The chat bots if you like, to simpletons like me, the ChatGPT’s and so forth. You know, they seem like glorified search engines or Oracles - you ask them a question and they tell you everything you need to know.  OSAMA RAHMANSo that's a form of AI and the one everyone's interested in. But it's not the only form – like I said machine learning, some other applications in data science, where we try in government, you know, in trying to detect fraud and error. So, it's all interlinked.   MILES FLETCHERWhen the ONS asked people recently for one of its own surveys, about how aware the public are about artificial intelligence, 42% of people said they used it in their home recently. What sort of things would people be using it for in the home? What are these everyday applications of AI and I mean, is this artificial intelligence strictly speaking?  OSAMA RAHMANIf you use Spotify, or Amazon music or YouTube music, they get data on what music you listen to, and they match that with people who've been listening to similar music, and they make recommendations for you. And that's one of the ways people find out about new music or new movies if you use Netflix, so that's one pretty basic application, that I think a lot of people are using in the home.  MILES FLETCHERAnd when asked about what areas of AI they'd like to know more about, more than four in 10 adults reported that they'd like to know better how to judge the accuracy of information. I guess this is where the ONS might come in. Rich then, if I could just ask you to explain what we've been up to, what the Data Science Campus has been up to, to actually bring the power of artificial intelligence to our statistics. RICHARD CAMPBELLThanks Miles. Yeah, a few things that ONS has been doing in this very broad sphere of artificial intelligence, and it's really in that overlap area that Osama mentioned with data science, so I'd pick out a few sorts of general areas there. So, one is automation. You know, we're always keen to look at how we can automate processes and make them more efficient. It frees up the time of our analysts to conduct more work. It means that we are more cost effective. It means that our statistics have better quality. It's something we've done for years but AI offers some new opportunities do that. The other area which Osama touched on is the use of large language models, you know, we can get into the complexities of data. We can get much more out of data; we can complete tasks that would have been too complex or too time consuming for real data scientists. And this is good news, actually, because it frees up the data scientists to add real valuable human insights. Some of the places we've been using this. So, my team for example, which is called reproducible data science and analysis, and we use data science and engineering skills to develop computer systems to produce statistics where the data is a bit big, or what I tend to call a bit messy or a bit complex for our traditional computer systems. We use AI here through automation, as I mentioned, you know, really making sure that we're making systems as efficient and high quality as possible. Another thing we're interested in doing here is quite often we’re doing something called re-platforming systems. So, this is where we take a system that's been used to produce our statistics for years and years and look to move it on to new technology. Now we're exploring with Osama's team the potential for AI to do a lot of the grunt work for us there to sort of go in and say, right, what is going on in this system? How is it working, how we can improve it? One other thing I'll mention, if Osama doesn't mind me treading on the territory of his team, is the Stats Chat function that we've used on the ONS website. So, this is using AI to enable a far more intelligent interrogation of the vast range of statistics that we've got, so it no longer requires people to be really knowledgeable about our statistics. It enables them to ask quite open questions and to be guided to the most relevant data.  MILES FLETCHERBecause at the moment, if you want to really explore a topic by getting into the depths of the data, into the granular data, you’ve really got to know what you're looking for haven’t you? This again is an oracle that will come up with the answers for you and just present them all ready for your digestion.  RICHARD CAMPBELLThat's right. And I tend to think of these things as a starting point, rather than the whole answer. So, what it’s enabling you to do is to get to the meat of the issue a lot quicker. And then you can focus your energy as a user of our statistics in doing the analysis that you want rather than thinking “how do I find the right information in the first place?” MILES FLETCHEROsama, that sounds like an intriguing tool. Tell us precisely how it works then, what data does it capture, what's in scope? OSAMA RAHMANSo the scope is publicly available documents on the ONS website. And there's a specific reason for that. So, these AI tools, you can have it look at the whole internet, you can have it look at subsets of data, you can point it to specific bits of data, right? And what's important for us is actually the work of the ONS, that statistics we produce are quality assured and relevant. And by providing these guardrails where you know, Stats Chat only looks at ONS published data, we have a degree of assurance that the data coming back to the user is likely to be of good quality and not based on who knows what information. MILES FLETCHERBecause when you use, to name one example, ChatGPT for example, the little warning comes back saying “ChatGPT can make mistakes, consider checking important information.” And I guess that's fundamental to all this isn't it. These tools, as intelligent as they might be, they're only as good - like any system - as the information that's going in the front end.  OSAMA RAHMANThat's absolutely correct, which is why we have these guardrails where, you know, the functionality on Stats Chat is focused on published ONS information.  MILES FLETCHERThat does mean that something that's offered by an organisation like the ONS does have that sort of inbuilt potential to be trustworthy and widely used. But of course, you might say, to have a really good tool it's got to be drawing on masses of information from right across the world. And it's interesting how, and you mentioned that it's open-source data, of course, that's most available for these tools at the moment, but you're seeing proprietary data coming in as well. And this week, as we're recording this, the Financial Times, for example, has announced that it's done a deal with one of the big AI firms to put all of its content into their database. Do you think there's scope for organisations like the ONS around the world to collaborate on this and to provide you know, really powerful tools for the world to exchange knowledge and data this way? OSAMA RAHMANSo there is collaboration going on. There's collaboration, both within government - we're not the only department looking at these sorts of tools; there's also collaboration internationally. I think the difference you know... our information on our website is already publicly available. That's why it's on the net, it is a publication. But there's a difference in situation with the FT where, you know, a lot of the FT information is behind a paywall. MILES FLETCHERYeah, it has a sort of democratising tendency that this publicly available information is being fed into these kinds of sources and these kinds of tools. That's big picture stuff. It's all very exciting work that's going on. But I'll come back to you Rich just for a second. What examples practically, because I think that the Stats Chat project is still a little way off actually being available publicly, isn't it? RICHARD CAMPBELLYeah, I think it is still a little way off. So, I think the key thing that we're doing at the moment and something we've done for years, but AI is helping is the use of automation principles. Just making things quicker. Now in a data science context, this might be going through very, very large data sets, looking for patterns that it would take an analyst a huge amount of time and probably far too much patience than they would have to find. MILES FLETCHERSo for example, in future then we might find that - and this is one issue that recurs in these podcasts - obviously about the limitations of official statistics is they tend to lag.  This is another way of making sure that data gets processed faster. And therefore, the statistics are more timely, and therefore the insights they provide are really much more actionable than perhaps they might be at the moment.  RICHARD CAMPBELLYeah, that's spot on. There's potential in there for pace of getting the statistics from the point that the data exists to getting it into published statistics. There's potential there for us to be able to combine and bring more sources together. There's also some behind the scenes stuff that helps as well. So, for example, quite often we are coding up the systems to produce new or improved versions of official statistics. And we're looking at the possibility of AI speeding up and supporting that process, perhaps for example, by giving us an initial draft of the code. Now, why does that matter for people in the public, you know, does anybody actually care? Well, what it means is that we can do things quicker and more to the point we can focus the time of our expert data scientists and other analysts in really helping people understand the data and the analysis that we're producing.  MILES FLETCHEROkay, so lots of interesting stuff in the pipeline there. But I’d like to bring in Sam now to talk about how AI is actually being used in government right now. Because in your work Sam at the Department for Transport, you've actually been working on some practical projects that have been gaining results in the real world. SAM ROSEWe have - we've been doing loads actually, and my poor team probably haven't had any time to sit still for the last 18 months or so. And I think like most ministerial departments, we're doing lots and lots of work to automate existing processes, so much like Rich has alluded to in your space, we're looking at the things that take up most of the time for our policy colleagues and looking at how we can automate those. So, for example, drafting correspondence, or automating policy consultation processes, or all of that kind of corporate memory type stuff. Can we mine big banks of data be it text or otherwise and summarise that information or generate new insights that we wouldn't have been able to do previously? But I think slightly more relevant maybe for you guys, is the stuff we're doing on creating new datasets or improving datasets. So, a few things. We're training a machine learning model to identify heavy goods vehicles from Earth observation data. And that's because we don't have a single nationally representative data set that tells us where these heavy goods vehicles park or stop outside of existing kind of service stations, and what we want to understand is where are those big areas of tarmac or concrete where they're all parking up as part of their routine journeys, so that we can look at when we're rolling out the green infrastructure for heavy goods vehicles, we're looking at where the important places that we need to put that infrastructure are. And that data doesn't exist at the moment. So we're using machine learning to generate a new dataset that we wouldn't otherwise have. MILES FLETCHERAnd how widespread are these kinds of projects across government in the UK now? SAM ROSESo I think that there are loads of different things and I wouldn't be able to speak on behalf of everybody but I know lots of different areas of government are looking at similar kind of automation and productivity projects like our kind of drafting all of the knowledge management area. I think there's things like Osama alluded to where DEFRA for example, I think they're using Earth observation data to assess biodiversity for example. So, there's lots of stuff that's common between lots of government departments, and then there's lots of stuff that's very specific to individual departments. But all along the way there's lots of collaboration and working together to make sure we're all learning continuously and where we can collaborate on a single solution that we are. MILES FLETCHERI guess one of the central public concerns about the spread of AI once again that it will cost jobs, that it will do people out of the means of making a living that they've become used to. And I guess from government's point of view, it's all about doing much, much more with the resources that we have and making government much more effective.  SAM ROSEYes, absolutely. And it's not necessarily - and I think Rich mentioned this earlier - it's not necessarily about doing our jobs for us. It's about improving how we can do our jobs and being able to do more with less, I think, so freeing up the human to do the bit that the human really needs to do and enabling the technology to do their very repeatable very automatable parts of the job. And indeed, in some instances, this technology can actually do the work better than humans. So be it identifying really complex patterns and datasets, for example. Or a good example from us in transport is we've trained machine learning model to be able to look at images of electric vehicle charge point installations and be able to identify that similar or the same image that has been submitted more than once. Now that's estimated to have saved over 130 man years of time, you know, that's not a task that we would have been able to do with just humans. MILES FLETCHERAnd you would have to be pretty alert as a human and have a very high boredom threshold to process all that material yourself and spot the fraudsters. SAM ROSEYeah, well, quite. And that's, I think, a really nice example of where again, it's not taking our jobs, but it's enabling us to do something that we wouldn't have been able to do previously and improve the service that we're providing. MILES FLETCHERNow, our ability collectively, whatever sort of organisation we're involved in, our ability to make the most of AI depends on of course having the right skills, and Osama I guess this is where the Data Science Campus comes in as the government's Centre of Excellence for data science, principally, but I guess also in this context, artificial intelligence as well. What work have you been involved in to make sure that the supply of those skills and knowledge is on tap for government? OSAMA RAHMANSo firstly, I would say we are a (one) centre of excellence within government. I think you know, what's been brilliant to see since the campus was set up has been that actually more and more government departments have excellent data science, AI teams. Sam leads one at DfT. There is, of course, 10DS (or 10 Data Science) at number 10 [Downing Street]. There's a Cabinet Office team. So, there's lots of teams that now work in this area. Some of the stuff we've been doing is we have various training programmes that we have run. We have senior data masterclasses so that actually, senior leaders within government can understand better the power of data. 10DS, Sam's area, have all been running hackathons, which actually improve skills as well. So, it's no longer just us who are building capability. I think it's great to see that across government and across departments there are teams improving skills within their departments, bringing in others from outside to work with them. So, there's a lot going on there. SAM ROSEJust really quickly, it's important to think that skills are not just skills of data scientists, but skills of everybody's ability to use this kind of technology. There's a lot of work going on at the moment looking at what we need to do both internally to government, but also out there in all of our sectors to make sure that our workforce has the skills it needs to be able to more rapidly kind of adopt and be able to take advantage of all the benefits that this technology brings to us. I mean from a very personal point of view, and I don't really know all of the answers to this, but you know, I'm thinking about what actually, if large language models can help us to generate efficient code, then actually, what skills do I need in my data scientists? If it's not writing code, is it actually the analytical thinking and being able to understand how to apply these kinds of technologies? So, I think it changes what we need in the workforce that we have.  MILES FLETCHERInevitably, though, if we're talking about this kind of technology being rolled out across government and thereby increasing the power of government to know more about more people, then concerns obviously, about the ethical use of data come in...
Communicating Uncertainty: How to better understand an estimate.
25-03-2024
Communicating Uncertainty: How to better understand an estimate.
The ONS podcast returns, this time looking at the importance of communicating uncertainty in statistics. Joining host Miles Fletcher to discuss is Sir Robert Chote, Chair of the UKSA; Dr Craig McLaren, of the ONS; and Professor Mairi Spowage, director of the Fraser of Allander Institute.    Transcript  MILES FLETCHER  Welcome back to Statistically Speaking, the official podcast of the UK’s Office for National Statistics. I'm Miles Fletcher and to kick off this brand new season we're going to venture boldly into the world of uncertainty. Now, it is of course the case that nearly all important statistics are in fact estimates. They may be based on huge datasets calculated with the most robust methodologies, but at the end of the day they are statistical judgments subject to some degree of uncertainty. So, how should statisticians best communicate that uncertainty while still maintaining trust in the statistics themselves? It's a hot topic right now and to help us understand it, we have another cast of key players. I'm joined by the chair of the UK Statistics Authority Sir Robert Chote, Dr. Craig McLaren, head of national accounts and GDP here at the ONS, and from Scotland by Professor Mairi Spowage, director of the renowned Fraser of Allander Institute at the University of Strathclyde. Welcome to you all.   Well, Sir Robert, somebody once famously said that decimal points in GDP is an economist’s way of showing they've got a sense of humour. And well, that's quite amusing - particularly if you're not an economist - there's an important truth in there isn't there? When we say GDP has gone up by 0.6%. We really mean that's our best estimate.    SIR ROBERT CHOTE It is. I mean, I've come at this having been a consumer of economic statistics for 30 years in different ways. I started out as a journalist on the Independent and the Financial Times writing about the new numbers as they were published each day, and then I had 10 years using them as an economic and fiscal forecaster. So I come at this very much from the spirit of a consumer and am now obviously delighted to be working with producers as well. And you're always I think, conscious in those roles of the uncertainty that lies around particular economic estimates. Now, there are some numbers that are published, they are published once, and you are conscious that that's the number that stays there. But there is uncertainty about how accurately that is reflecting the real world position and that's naturally the case. You then have the world of in particular, the national accounts, which are numbers, where you have initial estimates that the producer returns to and updates as the information sets that you have available to draw your conclusions develops over time. And it's very important to remember on the national accounts that that's not a bug, that's a feature of the system. And what you're trying to do is to measure a very complicated set of transactions you're trying to do in three ways, measuring what the economy produces, measuring incomes, measuring expenditure. You do that in different ways with information that flows in at different times. So it's a complex task and necessarily the picture evolves. So I think from the perspective of a user, it's important to be aware of the uncertainty and it's important when you're presenting and publishing statistics to help people engage with that, because if you are making decisions based on statistics, if you're simply trying to gain an understanding of what's going on in the economy or society, generally speaking you shouldn't be betting the farm on the assumption that any particular number is, as you say, going to be right to decimal places. And the more that producers can do to help people engage with that in an informed and intelligent way, and therefore mean that decisions that people take on the basis of this more informed the better.     MF  So it needs to be near enough to be reliable, but at the same time we need to know about the uncertainty. So how near is the system at the moment as far as these important indicators are concerned to getting that right?   SRC  Well, I think there's an awful lot of effort that goes into ensuring that you are presenting on the basis of the information set that you have the best available estimates that you can, and I think there's an awful lot of effort that goes into thinking about quality, that thinks about quality assurance when these are put together, that thinks about the communication how they mesh in with the rest of the, for example, the economic picture that you have, so you can reasonably assure yourself that you're providing people with the best possible estimate that you can at any given moment. But at the same time, you want to try to guide people by saying, well, this is an estimate, there's no guarantee that this is going to exactly reflect the real world, the more that you can do to put some sort of numerical context around that the more the reliable basis you have for people who are using those numbers, and thinking about as I say, particularly in the case of those statistics that may be revised in future as you get more information. You can learn things, obviously from the direction, the size of revisions to numbers that have happened in the past, in order to give people a sense of how much confidence they should place in any given number produced at any given point in that cycle of evolution as the numbers get firmer over time.   MF  If you're looking to use the statistics to make some decision with your business or personal life, where do you look for the small print? Where do you look for the guidance on how reliable this number is going to be?   SRC  Well, there's plenty of guidance published in different ways. It depends, obviously on the specific statistics in question, but I think it's very important for producers to ensure that when people come for example to websites or to releases that have the headline numbers that are going to be reported, that it's reasonably straightforward to get to a discussion of where do these numbers come from? How are they calculated? What's the degree of uncertainty that lies around that arising from these things? And so not everybody is obviously going to have an appetite for the technical discussion there. But providing that in a reasonably accessible, reasonably findable way, is important and I think a key principle is that if you're upfront about explaining how numbers are generated, explaining about the uncertainty that lies around them in as quantified way as you can, that actually increases and enhances trust in the underlying production and communication process and in the numbers rather than undermining it. I think you have to give the consumers of these numbers by and large the credit for understanding that these things are only estimates and that if you're upfront about that, and you talk as intelligently and clearly as you can about the uncertainties - potential for revision, for example - then that enhances people's confidence. It doesn't undermine it.   MF  You mentioned there about enhancing trust and that's the crux of all this. At a time we're told of growing public mistrust in national institutions and so forth, isn't there a risk that the downside of talking more about uncertainty in statistics is the more aware people will become of it and the less those statistics are going to be trusted?   SRC  I think in general, if you are clear with people about how a number is calculated, the uncertainty that lies around it, the potential for revision, how things have evolved in the past - that’s not for everybody, but for most people - is likely to enhance their trust and crucially, their understanding of the numbers that you're presenting and the context that you're putting around those. So making that available - as I say, you have to recognise that different people will have different appetites for the technical detail around this - then there are different ways of presenting the uncertainty not only about, you know, outturn statistics, but in my old gig around forecasts of where things are going in the future and doing that and testing it out with your users as to what they find helpful and what they don't is a valuable thing to be doing.   MF  You've been the stats regulator for a little while now. Do you think policymakers, perhaps under pressure to achieve certain outcomes, put too much reliance on statistics when it suits them, in order to show progress against some policy objective? I mean, do the limitations of statistics sometimes go out of the window when it's convenient. What's your view of how well certainty is being treated by those in government and elsewhere?    SRC  Well, I think certainly in my time as a forecaster, you were constantly reminding users of forecasters and consumers of that, that again, they're based on the best available information set that you have at the time. You explain where the judgements have come from but in particular, if you're trying to set policy in order to achieve a target for a particular statistic at some point in the future, for example, a measure of the budget deficit, then having an understanding of the uncertainty, the nature of it, the potential size of it in that context, helps you avoid making promises that it's not really in your power to keep with the best will in the world, given those uncertainties. And sometimes that message is taken closer to heart than at other times.   MF  Time I think to bring in Craig now at this point, as head of national accounts and the team that produces GDP at the ONS to talk about uncertainty in the real world of statistical production. With this specific example, Craig, you're trying to produce a single number, one single number that sums up progress or lack of it in the economy as a whole. What do you do to make the users of the statistics and the wider public aware of the fact that you're producing in GDP one very broad estimate with a lot of uncertainty built in?   CRAIG MCLAREN  Thanks, Miles. I mean, firstly, the UK economy - incredibly complex isn't it? The last set of numbers, we've got 2.7 trillion pounds worth of value. So if you think about how we bring all of those numbers together, then absolutely what we're doing is providing the best estimate at the time and then we start to think about this trade off between timeliness and accuracy. So even when we bring all of those data sources together, we often balance between what can we understand at the point of time, and then equally as we get more information from our businesses and our data suppliers, we evolve our estimates to understand more about the complex nature of the UK economy. So where we do that and how we do that it's looking quite
ONS: Year in Review 2023
21-12-2023
ONS: Year in Review 2023
In this episode Miles is joined by the National Statistician, Sir Ian Diamond, to reflect on what has been a busy and transformative year at the Office for National Statistics.    Transcript    MILES FLETCHER  This is “Statistically Speaking”, the official podcast of the UK Office for National Statistics, I’m Miles Fletcher. This is our 20th episode, in fact, a milestone of sorts, though not a statistically significant one. What is significant is that we're joined, once again, to look back at the highlights from another 12 months here at the ONS by none other than the National Statistician himself, Professor Sir Ian Diamond. Ian, thanks for joining us again. The year started for you with being reappointed as the national statistician. As 2023 developed, how glad did you feel to be back?   SIR IAN DIAMOND  Of course, you know, I was hugely privileged to be invited to continue. It's one of the most exciting things you could ever do and I will continue to do everything in my power to bring great statistics to the service of our nation.   MF  To business then, and this time last year, we sat in this very room talking about the results of Census 2021, which were coming in quite fresh then. And we've seen the fastest growth of the population, you told us, since the baby boom of the early 1960s. Over the course of the year much more data has become available from that census and this time, we've been able to make it available for people in much richer ways, including interactive maps, create your own data set tools. What does that say about the population data generally and the way that people can access and use it now? How significant is that there's that sort of development?   SID  Well I think we need to recognise that the sorts of things that we can do now, with the use of brilliant technology, brilliant data science and brilliant computing is enabling us to understand our population more, to be able to make our data more accessible. 50, 60, 70 years ago, 150 years ago, we would have just produced in about six or seven years after the census, a report with many, many tables and people would have just been able to look at those tables. Now, we're able to produce data which enables people to build their own tables, to ask questions of data. It’s too easy to say, tell me something interesting, you know, the population of Dorset is this. Okay, that's fine, but actually he wants to know much more about whether that's high or low. You want to know much more about the structure of the population, what its needs for services are, I could go on and on. And each individual will have different questions to ask of the data, and enabling each individual to ask those questions which are important to them, and therefore for the census to be more used, is I think, an incredibly beautiful thing.   MF  And you can go onto the website there and create a picture...   SID  Anyone can go onto the website, anyone can start to ask whatever questions they want of the data. And to get very clearly, properly statistically disclosed answers which enable them to use those data in whatever way they wish to.   MF  And it's a demonstration of obviously the richness of data that's available now from all kinds of sources, and behind that has been a discussion of, that's gone on here in the ONS and beyond this year, about what the future holds for population statistics and how we can develop those and bring those on. There's been a big consultation going on at the moment. What's the engagement with that consultation been like?   SID  Well the engagement's been great, we’ve had around 700 responses, and it addresses some fundamental questions. So the census is a really beautiful thing. But at the same time, the census, the last one done the 21st of March 2021, was out of date by the 22nd of March 2021, and more and more out of date as you go on and many of our users say to us, that they want more timely data. Also by its very nature a census is a pretty constrained data set. We in our country have never been prepared to ask for example, income on the census yet this is one of the most demanded questions. We don't ask it because it is believed that it is too sensitive. And so there are many, many, many questions that we simply can't ask because of space. There are many more questions that we simply cannot ask in the granularity that we want to. We've been doing some work recently to reconcile the differences between estimates in the number of Welsh speakers from surveys with estimates on the number of people in the census who report they speak Welsh. Frankly, it would be better if we were able to ask them to get information in a more granular way. And so while the census is an incredibly beautiful thing, we also need to recognise that as time goes on, the technology and the availability of data allowing us to link data becomes much more of a great opportunity that we have been undertaking a lot of research, a lot of research which was asked for by the government in 2013, following the report by Chris Skinner, the late Chris Skinner, Joe Hollis, and Mike Murphy, which is a brilliant report. We said at the moment we need to do another census in 2021. That's what we have done and I believe it to be one of the best coverages there has ever been. And yet we need to assess whether administrative data could be used in future to provide more timely, more flexible and more accessible data and that's what the consultation is about. I will be making a recommendation to the UKSA (UK Statistics Authority) board in the future. In the near future we have to say, and I think it is worth saying that what the consultation says to us is that people are very, very, very much in favour of the direction of travel but at the same time as yet accepting our prototype, unconvinced about the data flows and the sustainability of those data flows to enable us to do it and so, we are looking at how to respond to other very important analyses and we will do so in the near future.   MF  When can the people who contributed to that consultation, roughly when should they expect to hear from us? SID  I think the expectation is we'll publish something by the end of quarter one in 2024.   MF  Surveys have continued to be a very important part of what the ONS does, these very large national surveys, and yet one of the biggest challenges of the has been maintaining coverage and particularly response rates and obviously, particularly with the Labour Force Survey recently that has been a particular issue for the ONS hasn’t it. Where do things stand now as we move into modernising the traditional Labour Force Survey and moving to a new model because it's an issue statistics bodies around the world have been dealing with, it's harder to get people to complete surveys like they used to.     SID  I think it's a fair point that response rates globally are a challenge and response rates globally, not only in national statistics issues, but in the private sector organisations that also collect data, are a challenge. So we need to recognise that. A part of that is that historically, one could find people at home, knock on doors, have that conversation with people, and perhaps post pandemic people are less willing to have a conversation at the house. Also, people are very busy. They work in multiple occupations. They are not always in, they live in housing accommodation which is more and more difficult to access. This there is no kind of single magic bullet here that we could press all we would have. The first thing to say Miles is that we recognise that and that's why we worked with our colleagues at His Majesty's Treasury to provide a project to go to what we call a transformed Labour Force Survey. And I think that that's a hugely exciting project for a number of reasons. One, the labour force survey which has been around for a long time, the questionnaire had become a little bit unwieldy. And also we wanted to enable people to have much more flexibility at the time of which they answered the question. We are in the field with the pilots for that service. We've been pretty good. There are good response rates. There are also some challenges around getting the questions right. These aren’t challenges that stress me, that's why you do a pilot, but at the end of the day we're hoping to be able to transform into that new Labour Force Survey early in 2024, in the first half of 2024. We're working very closely in doing that with our major stakeholders and the Bank of England, His Majesty's Treasury and the Office for Budgetry Responsibility (OBR), is you take a joint decision on when people feel comfortable that we have had enough dual running to enable us to move forward. The other question that I'd have to raise around surveys more generally, is on inflation, which we have all been subjected to in many, many areas in the last couple of years, inflation in survey collection has increased massively and so in the last year we've
Health: Preparing for the next global pandemic
20-11-2023
Health: Preparing for the next global pandemic
The ONS led the way informing the UK response to the Coronavirus pandemic. But what lessons can be learned and how can we best prepare not only ourselves, but the rest of the world, for the next pandemic?     Transcript  MILES FLETCHER  This is Statistically Speaking, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) Podcast. I'm Miles Fletcher, and as we approach the darkest months of winter, we're revisiting COVID-19.   Now the ONS doesn't do predictions, and we're certainly not forecasting a resurgence of the virus, either here in the UK or anywhere else. But pandemic preparedness has been the driving force behind two important pieces of work that we're going to be talking about this time. Looking beyond our shores, how well equipped now is the world in general to spot and monitor emerging infections? We'll hear from Josie Golding of the Wellcome Trust on that, including how even weather events like El Nino could affect the spread of viruses. We'll also talk to my ONS colleague, Joy Preece about the pandemic preparedness toolkit, a five-year project backed by Wellcome to create and develop resources that will help countries with health surveillance in the event of future pandemics.   But first, and closer to home, a new UK winter surveillance study to gather vital data on COVID-19 is now well underway. Jo Evans is its head of operations. Jo, this is a brand new COVID-19 survey the ONS is running in partnership with the UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA). What is the new survey and what's it going to be monitoring over the winter?  JO EVANS  So this is now the winter COVID infection study. And we're going to be going out to, I think we've got 145,000 people signed up, and we're going to ask them to take a lateral flow test to see if they are testing positive for COVID-19. Then we'll ask them to tell us a little bit about how they're feeling, what symptoms they have and some other household information - what work do they do? Do they have caring responsibilities? And so on.   MF  So we're gonna be getting people to take a test and everyone's familiar of course now with administering their own lateral flow test, that wasn't the case back in the early days of the pandemic, when it was a new thing for the vast majority of us. So they'll take a test that'll tell us whether they are positive or negative for COVID-19. And on top of that, we're going to be gathering data in the form of a questionnaire.   JE  That's right. And then this is a collaboration this time, so we'll be working with the UKHSA. I mean, we've worked with them on the COVID infection study before, but this time what we'll be doing is looking at those responses of how many people are telling us that they have COVID-19 And we'll be trying to understand that by where people live or their age group and so on, but we'll be sharing that information with UKHSA and they will then be looking at what the impact is on hospitals. So what they call the infection hospitalisation rate, how many people are going into hospital because they have COVID, so it'll really help us understand what pressures there are on the NHS over this winter period.  MF  And that will give us some inkling, once again, about how many people are infected but not actually displaying any symptoms?  JE  Absolutely. And we do ask people about their symptoms and if they tell us they test positive, we'll then be sending them a second questionnaire, a follow up, asking them to keep testing until they get two consecutive negative tests so that we can see how long they are testing positive, but we'll also ask them how long did their symptoms last and did they need to go and see a doctor, did they take any medication, so really trying to understand how they're experiencing that period of illness.  MF  So during those critical winter months, that'll give us some insight into what's really going on on-the- ground and in communities.   JE  That's right and we're running this study from November right through to March so that we can understand that, because COVID, unlike flu, it's not a seasonal virus, but we know that the NHS really suffers through the winter with those increased pressures, with more people needing their services. And this is about understanding what's happening out there. In the community, and what impact that is having on our healthcare services.  MF  Another very important aspect of that is we're going to be monitoring for people who say they're suffering the symptoms of what is popularly known as long-COVID, ongoing impacts of the virus, and that will fill a very important evidence gap won’t it.  JE  Absolutely. We will in a follow up questionnaire be asking people how long they've had COVID for and whether they have long-COVID. And interestingly, in some research we did when we were designing the questionnaire, long-COVID sufferers told us that they know precisely what date their symptoms started and how long they've had it because of the impact it's been having on their lives. So we are hopeful that this study will provide some really useful information.  MF  So 145,000 people taking part. Has it been difficult to get as many people as that involved?  JE  Do you know what, we got halfway there within the first 48 hours, people were so keen to take part in this study. We've really been surprised about that.  MF  It's probably a reflection of the success of the profile that the original study had.  JE  I think so, people are really keen to do their bit here and get involved in this study. And we've had a lot of participants, particularly in the older age groups, who have signed up so we will have to do something that we call ‘weighting of the data’ across the different age groups, but we do this all the time and we are also going out to those under 16s, right up to the over 70s.  MF  And as well as taking part in a very important public study, people get a COVID test for free and can see for themselves whether they've been affected.  JE Yeah, think that's one of the things people are keen to do, particularly over the winter periods when we're going to be mingling and visiting family, that reassurance really that you're going to test every month and find out whether or not you have COVID, I think we all want to make sure that we are virus free before we go and see our loved ones over Christmas, for example.  MF  Well, we're meeting to discuss this in mid-November. The first results are still a few weeks away but how are things going, we've got enough people? Are the tests out in the field yet?  JE
Communicating Statistics: Crossing the minefields of misinformation.
05-10-2023
Communicating Statistics: Crossing the minefields of misinformation.
In this episode we talk about the growth of data use in the media and the potential impact of misinformation on the public’s trust in official statistics.   Navigating podcast host Miles Fletcher through this minefield is Prof Sir David Spiegelhalter, from the University of Cambridge; Ed Humpherson, Head of the Office for Statistics Regulation; and award-winning data journalist Simon Rogers.    Transcript    MILES FLETCHER  Welcome again to Statistically Speaking, the official podcast of the UK’s Office for National Statistics, I'm Miles Fletcher. Now we've talked many times before in these podcasts about the rise of data and its impact on our everyday lives. It's all around us of course, and not least in the media we consume every day. But ‘what’ or ‘who’ to trust: mainstream media, public figures and national institutions like the ONS, or those random strangers bearing gifts of facts and figures in our social media feeds?  To help us step carefully through the minefields of misinformation and on, we hope, to the terra firma of reliable statistical communication, we have three interesting and distinguished voices, each with a different perspective. Professor Sir David Spiegelhalter is a well-known voice to UK listeners. He's chair of the Winton Centre for Risk Evidence Communication at the University of Cambridge and was a very prominent voice on the interpretation of public health data here during the COVID pandemic. Also, we have Ed Humpherson, Director General of regulation and head of the Office for Statistics Regulation (OSR), the official stats watchdog if you like, and later in this podcast, I'll be joined by award winning data journalist and writer Simon Rogers, who now works as data editor at Google.  Professor, you've been one of the most prominent voices these last few years – a fascinating few years, obviously, for statistics in which we were told quite frankly, this was a golden age for statistics and data. I mean, reflecting on your personal experience as a prominent public voice in that debate, when it comes to statistics and data, to be very general, how well informed are we now as a public, or indeed, how ill-informed on statistics?     DAVID SPIEGELHALTER  I think things have improved after COVID. You know, for a couple of years we saw nothing but numbers and graphs on the news and in the newspapers and everywhere, and that went down very well. People didn't object to that. In fact, they wanted more. And I think that has led to an increased profile for data journalism, and there's some brilliant ones out there. I'm just thinking of John Burn-Murdoch on the FT but lots of others as well, who do really good work. Of course, in the mainstream media there is still the problem of non-specialists getting hold of data and getting it wrong, and dreadful clickbait headlines. It is the sub editors that wreck it all just by sticking some headline on what might be a decent story to get the attention and which is quite often misleading. So that's a standard problem. In social media, yeah, during COVID and afterwards, there are people I follow who you might consider as - I wouldn't say amateurs at all, but they're not professional pundits or media people - who just do brilliant stuff, and who I've learned so much from. There are also some terrible people out there, widespread misinformation claims which are based on data and sound convincing because they have got numbers in them. And that, I mean, it's not a new problem, but now it is widespread, and it's really tricky to counter and deal with, but very important indeed.     MF  So the issue aside from - those of us who deal with the media have heard this a hundred times - “I don't write the headlines”, reporters will tell you when you challenge that misleading kind of headline. But would you say it’s the mainstream media then, because they can be called out on what they report, who broadly get things right? And that the challenge is everything else - it's out there in the Wild West of social media?     DS  Yeah, mainstream media is not too bad, partly because, you know, we've got the BBC in this country, we’ve got regulations, and so it's not too bad. And social media, it's the Wild West. You know, there are people who really revel in using numbers and data to make inappropriate and misleading claims.     MF  Is there anything that can be done? Is it the government, or even those of us like the ONS who produce statistics, who should we be wading in more than we do? Should we be getting out there onto the social media platforms and putting people right?     DS  It's difficult I mean, I don't believe in sort of censorship. I don't think you can stop this at source at all. But just because people can say this, it doesn't give them a right for it to be broadcast wide, in a way and to be dumped into people's feeds. And so my main problem is with the recommendation algorithms of social media, where people will see things because it's getting clicks, and the right algorithm thinks persona will like it. And so we just get fed all this stuff. That is my real problem and the obscurity and the lack of accountability of recommendation algorithms right across social media is I think, a really shocking state of affairs. Of course, you know, we come on to this later, but we should be doing something about education, and actually sort of pre-empting some of the misunderstandings is something I feel very strongly about with my colleagues. You’ve got to get in there quick, and rather than being on the backfoot and just reacting to false claims that have been made, you've got to sort of realise how to take the initiative and to realise what misunderstandings, misinterpretations can be made, and get in there quickly to try to pre-empt them. But that of course comes down to the whole business of how ONS and others communicate their data.     MF  Because when you ask the public whether they trust them - and the UK statistics authority does this every two years - you ask the public if they trust ONS statistics, and a large proportion of them say they do. But of course, if they're not being presented with those statistics, then they're still going to end up being misled.     DS  Yeah, I mean, it's nice to get those responses back. But, you know...that's in terms of respondents and just asking a simple question, do you trust something or not? I think it's good to hear but we can't be complacent about that at all. I’m massively influenced by the approach of the philosopher, Baroness Onora O’Neill, who really makes a sharp distinction between organisations wanting to be trusted and revelling in being trusted, and she says that shouldn't be your objective to be trusted. Your objective should be to be trustworthy, to deserve trust, and then it might be offered up to you. And so the crucial thing is trustworthiness of the statistics system and in the communications, and that's what I love talking about, because I think it's a
International Development: Growing a Global Statistical System
29-08-2023
International Development: Growing a Global Statistical System
In this episode, we explore ONS’s work with other countries to raise the world's statistical capabilities.    Transcript  MILES FLETCHER  Hello and welcome again to ‘Statistically Speaking’, the Office for National Statistics’ Podcast. I'm Miles Fletcher, and in this episode we're going international.   Now it hardly needs saying that global issues, climate change, population growth, inflation, to name a few are best understood and addressed with the benefit of good global statistics. So, to that end, the ONS works in partnership with a number of countries worldwide with the ultimate aim of raising the world's statistical capabilities. At the one end of Africa, for example, a continent where it’s deeply involved, that includes embedding state of the art inflation indices and other economic data in Ghana. On the other side of the continent, it's meant using AI and machine learning to track the movement of displaced populations in Somalia. How do you run a census in places where nobody has a permanent address?   It's all fascinating work and here to tell us about it, Emily Poskett, Head of International Development at the ONS; Tim Harris of the ONS Data Science Campus’s international development team; and joining us from Accra, our special guest, Government Statistician of the Republic of Ghana and head of the Ghanaian Statistical Service Professor Samuel Annim.  Emily then, to start give us the big overview if you would, set out for us the scale and the purpose of this international development work that the ONS is doing.    EMILY POSKETT  We work with countries around the developing world to support strong modern statistical systems wherever we see a suitable opportunity to do so.     MF  What form does that work take? Does it mean statisticians going out to these countries?     EP  Yes, it does, when that's the right way to go about things. So our work is usually through the form of medium-term partnerships with a small group of national statistical offices, or NSOs, from the developing world, and those partnerships are medium term over a number of years in order to build up a real understanding of the context in that country, that national statistical office’s vision for modernization and how the ONS can be of most help to achieve their own goals under their own strategy.   That relationship will normally be led by a particular individual who spends time getting to know the context and getting to know the people, getting to know what ONS can do to help. A partnership might cover a range of topic areas from census to data science to leadership training to economic statistics, and the lead point of contact, the strategic advisor in many cases, will bring in the relevant experts from across ONS, and they'll work through virtual collaboration but also through on-site visits, and they will work out the best timing for those and the best delivery modality in order to ensure that the gains are sustained. Our primary focus really is to make sure that changes that we support in the partner organisation are sustainable, and the work that ONS does using the UK’s aid budget is really impactful and leads to long term change.   We don't always work through direct partnerships, for example where we see opportunities to work alongside other organisations, so international institutions like the World Bank or other national statistics offices like Statistics Canada or Statistics Sweden, they might choose to bring us in to deliver small pieces of focussed technical assistance alongside their own programmes. One of our medium-term partnerships is with the United Nations Economic Commission For Africa (UNECA), and they work with all 54 countries of Africa, and they can choose to bring in our expertise alongside their own to target particular needs in particular countries. But I would say that 70% of our effort is through these medium-term partnerships.     MF  So the ONS is providing one part of a large patchwork of work, going on right across the developing world, but what is the ultimate purpose of that? What are all these countries trying to achieve together?     EP  Well, strong statistical systems are essential in all countries to aid effective planning and informed decision making. And this is even more important in developing countries where resources are often scarce and you're trying to use scarce resources to target a wide range of needs across the population. And that resource might include UK aid for example, and aid from other countries. The UK has been statistical capacity building for many, many years through different modalities, working with partners, and the ONS is just one implementing partner who can be called upon to provide that technical expertise. We're really proud to be a partner of choice for a number of developing countries and the ONS is seen worldwide as being a leader. We're really proud that countries like Ghana would choose to work with us, and that we want to do our bit to help them to achieve their own strategy and their own goals.     MF  Well, this seems like an excellent moment to bring in Professor Samuel Annim. Our great pleasure, great honour, to have you with us professor. From your perspective, and what you're looking to achieve in the Ghana Statistical Service, how important how useful is the work with ONS been for you?     PROFESSOR SAMUEL ANNIM  From the perspective of how it has been important for us, I mean, I look at it from several aspects. I got into office in 2019,  a year after the ONS and GSS collaboration had been established. And when I joined obviously, I had a sense of what I wanted to contribute to the office. Partnership that we've seen between National Statistical Offices over the years have always taken the dimension of statistical production partnerships, and what I simply mean by that is that they’re going in to help the service deliver on its core mandate. So for example, if price statistics are the priority, then that is the area you want to focus on, but our partnership with ONS took a different dimension. In addition to focusing on the traditional mandate of the Institute, which is the production of statistics, we really have over the period achieved some milestones from the perspective of transformation, which is of high priority to me, and secondly, from the perspective of injecting technology or contemporary ways of dispensing our duty as a National Statistical Office. So from an individual point of view, it has it has been beneficial to the mission that I have, and since then we have kept on working in the area of transformation.     MF  Listening to what you have to say there, it does sound as though some of the big challenges you face at the moment are not too dissimilar from the ones faced by ONS, all about modernising statistics, particularly using big data and new technology.     SA  Indeed, and I must say that it is a wave across all national statistical offices, because we are now trying to complement traditional surveys and censuses with non-traditional data sources i.e. Big Data, administrative data, citizens generated data and other geospatial resources. So collaborating is the key thing here, because this is new to the statistical community. So it's important we collaborate to learn how you are dealing with issues that are
In The Field: Surveying the nation
31-07-2023
In The Field: Surveying the nation
In this episode we chat to members of the ONS Social Survey Collection Division about the importance, and challenges, of getting the general public to take part in crucial surveys that help paint a picture of what life is like across Britain.   Transcript  MILES FLETCHER  Welcome again to ‘Statistically Speaking’, the official podcast of the UK’s Office for National Statistics. I’m Miles Fletcher.   Now I don’t know about you - but it seems hardly a moment passes these days when we are not being asked to feed back. How was our service today? Are you satisfied with this product?  Please fill in this short survey. Your responses matter.  Well, forgive the natural bias, but today we’re talking about surveys that really do matter.   ONS surveys – some of which are the very largest conducted regularly in the UK – don’t just inform economic and social policy, though they are hugely important to it. The data they gathered also represent a public resource of immense and unique value.   But persuading people – some unaware, some sceptical and even hostile, others just very busy – to take part in them is a growing challenge for statistical institutions worldwide.       In this episode then we’ll be discussing how the ONS gathers often personal data from members of the public right up and down the country.   Taking time out of their day to answer my questions, and to explain why it’s absolutely crucial that you participate in our surveys if you get the opportunity to do so, are Emma Pendre and Beth Ferguson, who head up the ONS’s face-to-face Field Operations;   and sharing their own personal experiences of life on other people’s doorsteps we have two of the ONS’s top Field Interviewers, Tammy Fullelove and Benjamin Land.  Welcome to you all.  Emma, if I come to you first – give us an idea of what exactly the field community in ONS is. Who are you and what do you do?   EMMA PENDRE  The Social Survey Collection Division is the largest division in ONS. We primarily collect data from households either online, face to face or by telephone using computer assisted interviewing, and also work at air, sea and rail ports collecting data from passengers. All the data collected is used to produce quite a number of our key ONS publications which help to paint a picture of what life is like in the UK. And these can include things like estimates of employment and unemployment, how we measure inflation, how we measure migration, and a key topic of interest at the moment is the cost of living. So while most of ONS relies on the data that we collect for our outputs and statistical bulletins, the statistics that we particularly generate also support research, policy development and decision making across government and other private sector businesses as well.   MF  Now Beth, bringing you in here, when it comes to household surveys, presumably someone's deciding which households are going to be approached to take part. Who makes those decisions and how is it done?   BETH FERGUSON So I'm not going to pretend to understand the clever people in the statistics team who work out how we get the right people to cover a broad spectrum of society. But yes, that's done by the sampling team and they choose a random sample for the surveys.   MF  And that's generated presumably from using the electoral roll.   BF  It's generated from something called PAF which is the Post Office Address Finder. I'll have to confirm exactly what that stands for. Yes, but essentially, it's a list of addresses across England, Scotland and Wales.   MF  And when it comes to the passenger survey, it's a question of stopping what we hope will be a representative random sample of people as they pass through those ports.   BF  Yes, it is. Yeah. But at the moment we're currently working on departures and arrivals. So yes, it's a random sample of individuals stopped and asked questions.   MF  But to make the data really representative and really valid, of course, we've got to be covering the whole of the country. The country in this case being Great Britain.  How do we ensure that that coverage is working day in day out?   BF  That's our role as the kind of management of the face-to-face field interviewers. Different surveys are done over different frequencies. So we've got the Labour Force Survey and the transformed Labour Force Survey which addresses are issued for on a weekly basis and those surveys are delivered on a weekly basis. And then we've also got our other longer, more detailed financial surveys that we’re issued with a quota for on a monthly basis. So our job is to make sure we've got the right people, in the right places, to knock on the right doors, to get hold of those members of the public and, you know, encourage them to agree to complete surveys for us.   MF  And luckily for us we’re joined by two of those “right people” here today. Tammy and Benjamin, welcome to our humble podcast. Now you are both at the sharp end of our survey data collection, working as field interviewers.  I'm obviously really interested in what you do day to day, but first off tell us how you got into this line of work. What was the attraction for you Tammy, how did you become a field interviewer?   TAMMY FULLELOVE  So prior to working for the ONS - I've never worked in public sector before, I've always worked in the private sector - and I've actually got a finance background. But then after being on maternity leave, having a young family, seeing the job advertised and the flexibility working with people in a very, varied job sort of pulled me to it to apply to be honest. And that was seven years ago, and I can honestly say I enjoy every single day I'm out in the field. It's great.   MF  And Benjamin how about you, what was your background?
New Data: Transforming how we count the population
21-06-2023
New Data: Transforming how we count the population
In this episode we discuss how the ONS has been working to transform the way we count the population, using new datasets to give more accurate, timely, and detailed measurements.  On 29 June 2023, the ONS will be launching a public consultation on its proposals for a transformed population and migration statistics system. Understanding user needs will be essential evidence in making its recommendations to Government on the future of population statistics.    More detail available at: www.ons.gov.uk   To explain more about the public consultation, and answer your questions, the ONS is holding a series of free events in July 2023:   National Statistician’s launch event, London, 4 July 2023. (Online attendance also available)   National Statistician’s launch event, Cardiff, 6 July 2023. (Online attendance also available)   Launch webinar, 13 July 2023. (Online only)  You can also watch our transformation journey video, which is also available with British Sign Language (BSL), and in Welsh, with BSL.    TRANSCRIPT    MILES FLETCHER  Welcome again to ‘Statistically Speaking’, the official podcast of the UK’s Office for National Statistics. I’m Miles Fletcher and this time we're looking at the future of our population statistics. How best to count all of the people, all of the time, and provide the most valuable information on changing characteristics that can drive excellent research and sound public policy. All of that is the subject of a major consultation exercise that's running during the summer of 2023. It's all about the Office for National Statistics proposals to create what's described as a sustainable and future proof system for producing essential statistics on the population.   Joining me to unpack all that and explain how you can get involved in the consultation process is Jen Woolford, Director of population statistics here at the ONS. And we're joined once again by Pete Benton, Deputy National Statistician.   Pete in a previous episode, you described how the once in a decade census has been the bedrock of our population statistics for a very long time, but now it looks like some pretty fundamental change could be on the way?   PETE BENTON Well, that's the question. What's the future hold? We've been doing a census for over 200 years now once a decade, and it paints a beautiful, rich picture of our population that's fundamental to planning all of our services that we use: health care, education, transport, they all depend on the number and type of people living in a given area. But the question is, can we get more detail from other data sources every year, and might that mean that we don't need a census in 2031? Because we've got enough and that's the question that we are now talking about.   MF Okay, so before we go into the detail of how we might achieve that, then paint a picture for our listeners. When we talk about population statistics, what are they exactly? And why are they so important and to whom?   PB Well in between a census, we estimate the total population, by age and by sex and we do it nationally and we do it for local authorities. We estimate migration, how many people have moved into the country and how many people have moved out and also how people move around the country because that affects the population at any given area. And of course, we also do surveys that give us top level national level statistics about all kinds of things whether it's the labour market, or our health, things that the census asks and gives us detailed information for small areas, surveys, kind of paint a top level picture in between times.   MF So to date, how have we gone about getting those numbers, and how good has that information been?   PB So the census gives us the baseline once every 10 years. And we take that and we add births, we subtract deaths, we make an estimate of international migration. And we use that to adjust the data and we make an estimate of migration around the country, and that gives us those population estimates and those migration statistics.   MF So to do that you need, or you’d have had to have drawn on something like the census, that universal survey of the whole population.   PB That's right. The census is the benchmark by which we reset the system once a decade. But of course, after nine years, that information is getting more out of date and we do a census again, 10 years on to reset those statistics. And again, give us that rich picture. The question we're looking at now is how much can we get in between times? And how much do we then still need all the detail that a census would give us once a decade?   MF So Jen, the world has moved on in those decades since the census in its present form has been going. You would think there's an opportunity out there to transform how we go about counting the nation. Give us the background to that.   JEN WOOLFORD So we've been looking over decades to bring more and more data together to improve our population statistics. So Pete talked about how we look at the movement of people between censuses both in and out of the country and between different areas. And for some time now, we've been using what we call administrative data to understand those movements in the population. But now we have access to lots more data than we have in the past, and it gives us lots of opportunities to change how we're producing population statistics. So back in 2014, government first set out its ambition for us to build a population and migration Statistics System with administrative data at its heart. In 2018, we published a white paper, which set out our plans for a digital first census in 2021. But also that we should be making a recommendation to government about what the future of Population Statistics looks like, and that that recommendation should be based on a public consultation. And that's the consultation that we are going to be launching at the end of June.   MF The challenge therefore, is to come up with something as least as good if not, preferably better, but without using a census.   JW Absolutely. And people's needs are changing. So whatever we do has to respond to whatever the user needs are of the day. So in the past, where maybe populations didn't change so much at a local level so quickly, then having a census once a decade that gave you that detail, that detail would still be quite relevant 10 years later. But the population is changing so rapidly now that that decade old data can quite quickly become out of date. And an example of where this could be a problem for us and for policymakers is if we look at the COVID pandemic. During the pandemic, we saw really localised outbreaks of COVID infections, and we really wanted to understand what was going on in those areas and what the characteristics of people in those areas was to try and understand what might be leading to those outbreaks. But we didn't have census data, the 2021 census data then, we were having to go back to what those areas look like in 2011. So by transforming what we do, and having more up to date information about those local populations, it would have given us a much better idea of what might have been driving those local outbreaks.   MF And there was another example perhaps during the pandemic when the government was trying to work out what proportion of the population had been vaccinated at local level relying on population statistics that because they were backed up by the census was subject to quite significant margins of error.
Local data: How new data sources are helping to calibrate communities
09-05-2023
Local data: How new data sources are helping to calibrate communities
In this episode of Statistically Speaking we shine the spotlight on local data and look at how good statistics for small areas make for better targeted policy interventions, and more effective use of valuable public resources.     Transcript    MILES FLETCHER  Welcome again to Statistically Speaking, the Office for National Statistics podcast. I'm Miles Fletcher and in this episode we're talking about local data for local people - How good statistics for small areas make for better targeted policy interventions, and more effective use of valuable public resources.   We're going to explore, for example, how new data sources are helping to precisely calibrate economic circumstances and local communities. How we may even be able to calculate the GDP of your street or village. Now many economic forces are of course global. Some of the solutions to issues like competitiveness, productivity and inequality might begin on our doorsteps.   As ever, we have the cream of ONS expertise here on hand, this time in the shape of Emma Hickman, Deputy Director of the ONS sub national stats division, and Libby Richards, Deputy Director for UK wide coherence and head of an important new initiative called ONS Local, which we'll be hearing about in full. Also joining us is Stephen Jones, Director of Core Cities UK. Its aim is to promote the role of our great cities in creating a stronger fairer economy and society.   So Emma, to set the scene for us first then please explain precisely if you would, the value of really good local stats.   EMMA HICKMAN So the needs are multiple, really. I think the most important thing is that we are seeing a huge increase in locally targeted policymaking and that’s at a range of different levels across government. So in central government, we see near the department for levelling up Housing and Communities kind of really wanting to think about how do they target policies that are going to help to level up the country but equally what we're also seeing is an increase in devolution which is giving more power to local areas and local policymakers. And so it's really also important that they have the statistics and the data that they need and the evidence that they need to make really, really good decisions for their local areas. And they can do that in a really powerful way because they also have knowledge of their local areas. And then finally, you know, actually for citizen kind of uses of our data and statistics really one of the inclusive data principles that people are able to see themselves in the data and that they feel that the data and the statistics that we're producing as an office represent them. And so having statistics and data available at really geographies that are very meaningful to people is hugely helpful in making sure that as a country, right across the UK that we are kind of reflective of the experiences of really kind of a wide range of people and you know, local economies and end users and understand kind of how they're experiencing that as well.   MF  I guess one of the fundamental principles here is that it's it's local knowledge. It's all very well and everybody thinks they know that local area, but to understand all local areas, we need comparable statistics and data produced to consistent standards.   EH Yes, absolutely. And that's, I mean, that's one of the key challenges. I think we'll probably kind of come to talk about a little bit later, but you know, absolutely. And that's really about understanding you know, where are the where are the inequalities within regions, as well as between regions? I think we have a lot of information available about, you know, kind of regions, but actually, we also know that some of the inequalities that people really feel are much greater actually within regions and between them and kind of being able to draw that out of data and statistics in a comparable way I think is really important for helping sort of policymakers and decision makers to understand where best to target resources.    MF Stephen, from a policy perspective, describe the demand for local data at the moment, what sorts of policy solutions are policy makers coming up with and how are those best informed by really good data?    STEPHEN JONES I think it covers all branches really of policymaking. I think as Emma was saying, the kind of need for really understanding and having a kind of quantitative basis for what's happening in a place is, is actually absolutely crucial for designing policy, whether that's policy about trying to make the economy grow, whether that's policies aimed at trying to reduce disadvantage and challenge facing individuals, whether that's policy about delivering the most effective and efficient public services in the right places at the right times, all of those things, whether that's done in public or private sector need to be built on a good evidence base, good understanding. I think the other thing I would add to the richness of local data can do you can kind of contextualise and understand, you know, a number on its own doesn't mean a huge amount, but if you know that you are 10% higher or 20% lower than your neighbouring place. Or the city of the same size. It's those kinds of contextual dimensions that really help nuance and finesse your policymaking.   MF And it does come back to that question of trust in data than to make those comparisons in a really reliable and meaningful way. Which I guess is where the ONS, the Office for National Statistics, where we come in. Now Libby tell us about ONS Local. This is an initiative which is all about making sure that that really high quality data is available for the policy makers   LIBBY RICHARDS ONS Local is our advisory service that is staffed by ONS analysts who are based in every nation of the UK and every region of England. And the idea is that we are here to help local policy makers, regional observatories, and lots and lots of different users of sub national data to really understand the enormous offer from ONS in terms of local data. Having said that, it's also very much about those working relationships as well. Stephen’s talked a lot about context and understanding the nuances and so understanding the situations and challenges that are happening locally is absolutely key to ONS Local helping local areas understand that context better.   MF The big ONS surveys of course have long carried, many of them are typically think about the Labour Force Survey over a very long period of time, carried a great wealth and local data that obviously gets lost in the national headlines that these data releases generate. But is it a question of getting better value out of what the ONS is already creating or actually about sourcing new data from different sources?   LR It's a bit of both, very much, in being able to take people through what we already have when understanding their questions, particularly when multiple local areas are asking the same question that's really maximising what ONS already do. However, Emma's side of the house in particular, less so in the regionally and nationally distributed ONS Local is really about developing those new statistics getting into how do we get down to hyper localised sort of 400 to 1200 household building block data that then allow people to build those areas that means something to them. Emma, I don't know if you want to chip in?   EH Yeah, very happy to. There's two strands I think to that Miles. I think there's one which is about, you know, how do we make the most of survey data and kind of new administrative data sources together to enable that level of granularity? And then the second part is actually when we talk about administrative data probably, that might not really mean things to lots of people. That's data that is collected for a different purpose, but collected on a on a very, very routine basis. And there are actually a fair number of new sources of that kind of data that we're able to get into the ONS.   MF That's interesting. Can you give us an example of that?   EH So, I say relatively new. I mean, I think ONS have had this data for quite some time now. But in order to get the level of granularity that we need on Gross Value Added statistics, for example, which is a measure of productivity, we use HMRC’s VAT data for businesses and then we can link that to kind of our survey data and think about how can we then apportion estimates down to the level of geography that we need, knowing that the survey is the place where we've been able to ask the question that we really want to know the answer to and then we can use the other data to model sort of some of the other granularity that we need. The other thing is we've been really successful and using card payments data throughout the pandemic to inform the government's response. And we've recently successfully acquired a really exciting new data source from Visa, it's aggregated, so there's absolutely no way of identifying people in the data, but they've aggregated it at a really granular level of geography for us. So again, it would be in the region of probably hundreds of households, but actually that's granular enough for us to get some really, really good insights into kind of how you know, consumer spending is kind of playing out in the local economy. And there are all sorts of applications for that, that we're really excited to be to be able to start taking forwards now that we've got that data in the office.   MF So just with those three very important data sources, suddenly we're creating right down to that very micro level, as you say, 400 to 1200 households really quite a full picture of local economic activity.
Disability: When the numbers alone are simply not enough.
31-03-2023
Disability: When the numbers alone are simply not enough.
In this episode, we focus on a powerful example of when the numbers alone are simply not enough. The most recent Census has told us how many people have some form of disability but to really understand the nature of those disabilities and the needs of people reporting them we need to do a lot more work.   Guiding us through this work, is Helen Colvin, joint lead for Census and Disability Analysis at the ONS; Shona Horter, Head of Qualitative Research at the ONS Centre for Equalities and Inclusion; David Ainslie, Principal Analyst in the Analytical Hub of ONS and Matt Mayhew, Senior Statistical Officer in the Policy Evidence and Analysis Team.    Transcript  MILES FLETCHER  Hello and welcome again to another edition of Statistically Speaking, the Office for National Statistics podcast.   In this series, we've spent a lot of time explaining how statistics can brilliantly illuminate important issues, and this time we're focusing on a powerful example of when the numbers alone are simply not enough.   The most recent census has told us how many people have some form of disability and where they live. It's a good place to start of course, but to really understand the nature of those disabilities, and the needs of the people reporting them, we need to do a lot more work and that work is the subject of today's discussion.   Here to guide us through it we have Helen Colvin, joint lead for Census disability analysis at the ONS; Shona Horter, head of qualitative research at the ONS Centre for equalities and inclusion; David Ainslie, Principal Analyst at the analytical hub of ONS; and Matt Mayhew, senior statistical officer in the policy evidence and analysis team.   Helen to start with you, I mentioned the census there and those numbers showing us the scale of disability as defined by Census. Is it fair to say that census remains the sort of statistical bedrock of our understanding of disability - the single most important source?    HELEN COLVIN  Yes that’s right. I'd agree with that. So it's the main source that covers the whole of our population. So it's the best truth that you have, if you like, of what our population is like, and the proportion of disabled people within our population.   MF  And these were people, responding in their households, to the question which said what precisely?   HC  It said: Do you have any physical or mental health conditions or illnesses lasting or expected to last 12 months or more? And if people answered yes to that, they were asked: Do any of your conditions or illnesses reduce your ability to carry out day to day activities? A lot, a little, or not at all.   MF  What did you have to answer to that to be classified as disabled?   HC  To be classified as disabled - If you answered that you had a long term condition which affects your day to day activities a lot or a little then we regarded that as somebody as disabled. And the reason for that is that at ONS we measure disability against the Equality Act definition of disability and that really identifies somebody as disabled if they have a long term condition, and if it limits their day to day activities. And we do that so that we're able to report against the progress on the Equality Act in the UK.   MF  And the key element it would seem that - obviously we're talking about disability - is your ability to do day to day tasks and a sustained limitation.   HC  That's right, that needs to be... to be disabled under the Equality Act there needs to be a long term thing which affects you for up to 12 months or more. And it needs to be something which does impact you on your ability to carry out day to day activities. And that's really something that is arguably focusing on the medical model of disability, so focuses on how you can't do things because of your impairment because of the environment around you.   MF  Now that question is slightly different from the one asked in 2011. Why was that changed?   HC  So in 2011, we asked a very similar question, but we did remove a prompt which asked people to include problems specifically related to old age and this really was about bringing it more in line with the Equality Act, which doesn't have that emphasis. Problems related to older ages still classified as disability, but it wasn't making it the same kind of focus of the question, and another part that we changed was to remove the word disability because of course, disabled means different things to different people. And we tried to measure it slightly more objectively by using our own definition rather than asking about people's own opinions if they were disabled. And this time we also included mental health within the question, and we think that that could have influenced the raises that we saw among younger people.    MF  But how big an influence do we think that?   HC  So in census 2021, we did see an increase among younger people being classified as disabled compared to 2011. And this did stand out particularly for females slightly more than males. We think there was also possibly a real change in population at that time down to the pandemic, with more people showing signs around depression and mental health problems, particularly at the period that the census was conducted.   MF  And there remains of course, underlying all this. This is census data. This is people's own assessment of their ability. How is that benchmarked perhaps against other sources?   HC  So it's obviously a different measure from other sources. Other data might be more medically based, so GP records, that kind of thing, which is more based on actual conditions as opposed to disability.   MF  And do we think that some people perhaps consider themselves disabled who might not be defined as disabled under other circumstances?   HC  Absolutely. I think disability means different things to different people and some people who might be regarded as disabled under the Equality Act specifically wouldn't want themselves to be looked at that way. And conversely, some people which may not be captured by that definition, may want themselves to be, so there are many different ways you can conceptualise and define disability. So this is one way to try and do that and to measure disability in a slightly more objective way.   MF  And being defined as disabled within that census definition that you've set out for us, how does that match against other criteria of disability, perhaps when it comes to gaining access to benefits or services?   HC  So it has a different definition and a different way of being assessed. So for instance, if somebody wanted to access benefits, then there's a completely different threshold and set of criteria that they would need to meet through Work and Pensions.   MF  There's a tension there isn’t there, perhaps between people who answered in the affirmative on this on the Census but then wouldn't qualify as a disabled in the eyes of officialdom for want of a better word.   HC  Possibly, but we don't have that data within the ONS or around the DWP benefits data for this kind of use, to look at the match between our definition and the DWP assessment criteria.   MF  So you’ve shown
The R Word: Decoding ‘recession’ and looking beyond GDP.
20-02-2023
The R Word: Decoding ‘recession’ and looking beyond GDP.
With news headlines proclaiming the UK has ‘narrowly avoided a recession’, we decode the ‘r’ word and explain why this sometimes misleading term is one the ONS is often cautious to avoid. We get the lowdown on GDP (Gross Domestic Product); discuss whether its time as the yardstick for measuring the success or failure of the world’s economies is coming to an end; and hear how the ONS is already looking well ‘Beyond GDP’ and introducing broader measures of social wellbeing and the environment to provide us with a more holistic view of how society is faring.  Joining Miles is ONS Director of Economic Statistics, Darren Morgan, Chief Economist, Grant Fitzner; and Director of Public Policy Analysis, Liz McKeown.  Links Latest GDP dataMeasures of National Well-beingBeyond GDP   Transcript  MILES FLETCHER  Welcome again to Statistically Speaking the official podcast of the UK’s Office for National Statistics. I'm Miles Fletcher, and this time, we're going to talk about a very famous and long running statistic that’s still regarded as the single most important economic indicator of them all. I'm talking of course about GDP (Gross Domestic Product), the expansion or contraction of which is the yardstick against which the success or failure of the world's economies is measured. It's been around a long time, since around the time of the Second World War, in fact, but is its pre-eminence now coming to an end? GDP misses some things out - that which matters, as was once memorably claimed. So we'll be talking about how the ONS has been updating GDP to keep it relevant and developing new complementary measures of economic and social wellbeing that could perhaps, in future, supplant GDP itself. And in the current economic climate, we cannot avoid the “R” word. What exactly is a recession? How much does it actually matter, if it's only a technical one? Is it the difference between economic disaster and salvation? Spoiler alert, it really isn't.   Anyway, we have a panel of top ONS folk to explain it all: Darren Morgan is director of economic statistics production and analysis, Grant Fitzner is Chief Economist and director of macro-economic statistics and analysis, and also with us is Liz McKeown, Director of Public Policy Analysis, who is leading the drive towards these broader measures on social and economic welfare.   Welcome, everyone.   Darren to start with you. You are responsible for the production of the UK’s GDP estimates. So let's start by reminding ourselves what precisely it measures, it's basically seeking to put a value on all economic activity over a given period.     DARREN MORGAN  Yeah, so we look at GDP and we measure the economy in three different ways. First of all, we do it via what you call the output approach, and most simply, that's everything that's produced in the economy, and that can be cars rolling off the production line, that can be a lawyer providing advice as a service, and it can be public services as well. So surgeries, GP appointments and so on. So everything we produce in the economy. We also look at measuring the economy, everything that is spent, so that could be you and I in household, spending money in the shops or on leisure activities. It can be businesses spending money on goods and services. And it can also mean the government spending money, so everything we spend as well. And the third way we measure GDP is the income approach, which is basically everything that's earned in the economy. So for us in terms of households that's wages and salaries, for businesses it’s profit, for example. So we measure everything we produce, everything we spend and everything we earn, and in principle, they should all add up.    MF  And you're boiling it down then, a vast amount of data flowing into the ONS, boiling it all down to one single indicator.   DM  We do, and we do that by approaching thousands and thousands of businesses asking them about their performance. We speak to thousands of households about their behaviour. And we also use a lot of data already available withing government, so what we call administrative data - data that already exists. And we bring all those different data sources into the building, we look at it and we confront it, and we come up with ultimately, as you suggest, a single number on the growth of the economy.   MF What's changed in the in the collection of data now? How timely a process is this?     DM  So in the UK, we've got one of the timeliest measures of the economy in the world. And we only have one of two countries who produce a monthly measure the economy, so we do it much more quickly, and obviously it is completely different to how we did it say, even 10 or 15 years ago. We collect most of our data now from businesses online. Whereas previously we used to send a questionnaire to them, used to write the questionnaire and they would send it back to us, and that could take a week or weeks to do that. Businesses can fill the form in now sat at their desk online, do it very quickly and it reaches us straightaway.   MF  And you mentioned administrative data as well. So that's coming from other parts of government. What are the main sources there? How is that gathered?   DM  So that's correct. So what we try to do is minimise the burden on businesses and households, so some businesses may have to complete a tax return to HMRC for example. So we are able to use that information and bring it in, so that's one example. Pay As You Earn, people who use pay as you earn systems, will be well aware that we use that in our labour market numbers. But we use lots of different sources that are already available across government, and we reuse them for statistical purposes, like I said, to provide better estimates, because that data tends to be very good, but also to minimise the burden, as I said on households and businesses at the same time.   MF  And what is the coverage, in terms of what's included, how has that evolved in recent years?  DM  So in a way, in terms of what we call the boundary, the economic boundary, that has actually stayed very similar over a long period of time. It is very traditional in terms of the boundary we measure. So, like I said, it's sort of business activities, household activity and government activity. But it is along those lines about how much is produced, how much is spent, how much is earned, but the boundary for the economy has been very similar for 50 years.   MF  Nevertheless, there are some things included in GDP which might surprise some people. For example, in the most recent GDP release we talked about the fall in the number of pupils in classrooms in the last quarter of 2022.  DM  The public services was actually a really key indicator for the number that we published for December, and we saw a fall in the number of GP appointments, a fall in the number of operations, less vaccinations being given because the autumn booster campaign tailed off. And we also saw lower attendance in schools, because in the lead up to Christmas not so many pupils will go into school as we normally see. And the reason why we measure that, as you can imagine we measure teacher salaries, doctor salaries, we measure how much is invested in the health service, how much is invested in schools, and obviously those schools and hospitals buy goods and services. So, it's a really important part of the economy. So of course we measure the goods and services that they produce as well. It's a really important part of the economic measurement for GDP.
Integrating Data: Boosting the capabilities of researchers to inform policymaking.
31-01-2023
Integrating Data: Boosting the capabilities of researchers to inform policymaking.
Miles explores how data linking can help tackle cross-cutting issues in an increasingly uncertain world, and how the ONS’ new Integrated Data Service will provide a step-change transformation in how researchers will be able to access public data.  Joining him are ONS colleagues Bill South, Deputy Director of Research Services and Data Access; Jason Yaxley, Director of the Integrated Data Programme; and award-winning researcher Dr Becky Arnold, from the University of Keele.    TRANSCRIPT  MILES FLETCHER  Welcome again to Statistically Speaking - the Office for National Statistics Podcast. I'm Miles Fletcher and in this episode, we're going to step back from the big news making numbers and take a detailed look at an aspect of the ONS which is, less well known, but arguably just as important.   The ONS gather an awful lot of data of course, and much of it remains valuable long after it's been turned into published statistics. It is used by analysts and government, universities and the wider research community. So we're going to explain how that's done and look at some really interesting and valuable examples of how successful that has been to date. And we're also going to hear about a step-change transformation that's now underway in how public data is made available to researchers, and the future potential of that really important, exciting process. Our guides through this subject are Jason Yaxley, Director of the ONS’s integrated data programme, Bill South who is Deputy Director of the Research Services and Data Access Division here at the ONS, and later in the podcast we’ll hear from Dr. Becky Arnold who is an award-winning researcher from Keele University.   Right Bill, set the scene for us to start with then, we are talking here about the ONS Secure Research Service, take it from the top please. What is it? What's it all about? What does it do? What do we get from it?     BILL SOUTH   Hi Miles, thank you. Yes, the Secure Research Service, or the SRS, is the ONS’ trusted research environment. We've been running now for about 15 years, and we provide secure access to unpublished de-identified micro data for research that's in the public good. So in terms of numbers, we hold over 130 datasets, we've got about 5000 Researchers accredited to use the service and about 1500 of those would be working in the system at any given time on about 600 live projects.    MF  So what sort of data, what is stored and what's made available? Is this survey responses?    BS  Traditionally the SRS has held most of our ONS surveys. So that's the labour market, business...all of our surveys really. In the last four years, thanks to funding we've received from Administrative Data Research UK (ADRUK), we've been able to grow the amount of data we hold, so now we've increasingly got data coming from other government departments. And we've got more linked datasets that enable us to offer new insights into the data.    MF  And so these are people's responses to survey questions and people's records, as well as data that are held by other departments?    BS  Indeed, yes, the data coming from other departments is often administrative data, so not from surveys but more admin data.    MF  And a lot of the value in that is in being able to compare and to link this data to achieve different research insights?    BS  Absolutely. I mean, a good example of that is a dataset that's been added in the last year or so where our ONS census data from 2011 was linked to educational attainment data from the Department for Education into a research dataset called Growing up in England (GUiE). And it's hugely important because we have a lot of rich information from the census but you know, linking that with the educational attainment data offers new insights about how kids do at school, and how they're linked to the characteristics of their background.    MF  So you use the underpinning of census to provide a really universal picture of what's going on across that particular population, and therefore gain some insight into how people have achieved educationally in a way that we wouldn't have done before. Of course, all this and the power of it is clear in that example, but a lot of people might think, oh my gosh, they must know an awful lot about me that in that case, tell us about how privacy and anonymity are protected in those circumstances.    BS  Yeah, absolutely. It's a central part of their operation, and clearly the word secure in the name is key there. So we follow a five safes principle which underpins everything we do. The five safes are safe people, so that anyone who uses the SRS has to be trained and go through an assessment to be accredited by us to use the environment. Once they're accredited, they then have to apply to have a project that's running in the system, and that gets independently assessed. There are a number of checks around whether it's ethically sound, whether the use of data is appropriate, but the key thing really is around the public good. So all research projects that happen in the SRS have to be in the public good and there's a commitment to be transparent. So every project that happens in the SRS, there's a record which is published on the UK Statistics Authority website. The third safe is around the settings, so it's a very controlled environment where people access the data. The fourth stage is around the data, so although we've said it's record level data it's already identified. Names and addresses, any identifiers are stripped out of the data before researchers can access it. And the final stage, the final part of the of the researcher journey if you like, is around outputs. What that means is we do checks to ensure that when any analysis leaves the environment that no individual or business can be identified for the published results.    MF  So in essence, you must convince the ONS that you are a Bonafide researcher, and you also have to convince them that what you're doing is definitely for the public benefit.    BS  That's right. And the other thing that's worth noting is that the SRS, like a number of other trusted research environments across the country, has been accredited under the Digital Economy Act to be a data processor, which means we go through a rigorous assessment process around the security, the environment, but also our capability to run it. So that's our processes, our procedures, whether our staff are adequately trained to run the service. That's a key part of that accreditation under the Digital Economy Act.    MF  So, on that point then about anonymity, you can drill right down to individual level, but you'll never know who those individuals actually are or be able to identify them?    BS  That's right. Researchers typically will run their code against the record level data, but when they've got the results of the analysis, there are clear rules that say you won't be allowed to take out very low counts. So that means like our published outputs, there's no way of identifying anyone once the research is published.    MF  And the SRS has built up over the years a good reputation for actually doing this effectively and efficiently.    BS  Yes, I think that's fair to say. We have a good reputation, and the service is growing in terms of the number of datasets and the number of projects and the number of people using it. So, I think that speaks for itself.    MF  Okay, let's pull out another I think powerful example of why this facility is so important and that comes from the recent COVID pandemic. Many listeners will be aware that the ONS ran a very, very large survey involving upwards of 100,000 people providing samples, taking COVID tests, and they were sent off to be analysed creating an awful lot of community level data about COVID infections, and we in the ONS then publish our estimates and continue to do so as we record estimates every week of fluctuating infection levels. But behind all that work, there were expert researchers in institutions around the country who were doing far more with that data. And the SRS was fundamental to delivering the data to them. Tell us about how that operated Bill, and some of the results that we got out of it.    BS  Yeah, sure. I mean, the COVID infection survey that you refer to there, that dataset is available for accredited researchers to apply to use, and they have done, but we've also brought in a number of others, about 20 COVID related datasets are in the SRS, so things around vaccination or the schools infection survey, mortality, etc.   So since the start of the pandemic we've had over 50 projects that have either taken place and completed, or are currently underway, in the environment. Some of those are directly using the COVID related dataset. So looking, if you like, at the health impact, but there's also projects that are are looking at, if you like, non COVID data, economic data or education data, that are projects dedicated to understanding the impact of COVID.    MF  What sort of insights have we seen from those?    BS  In terms of those using the COVID related data there's been analysis to highlight the disproportionate impact of the virus on ethnic minorities, that went on to implement a number of government interventions. Another project assessed the role of schools in the in the Coronavirus transmission. We had another project that was run specifically on behalf of local authorities to inform their response to the pandemic that offered insights into the risks between occupation. Also research into footfall in retail centres and how business sectors were affected by the pandemic. So a really huge range of things. There were other research projects looking at the impact and you know, an example there was a project that looked at learning loss. So, kids not being in school for that sort of 20 to 21 academic year. Similarly, the Bank of England ran a project looking at the financial stability of the UK during the pandemic period. So hopefully those examples give you this sense of the range.    MF  An incredibly impressive array of projects, all underpinned by that big survey, the likes of which the ONS has a unique ability to run, that big survey taking part run across the United Kingdom of people providing and answering questionnaires as well as providing survey samples. And don't take our word for it, I mean, it was reported in the Daily Mirror no less. A researcher who benefited from that data described the COVID Infection Survey as, when it came to the pandemic, one of the most valuable resources on the planet. So that's a powerful example of the research value that can be extracted through the secondary uses of data gathered by the ONS.   Anyway, enough of blowing our own trumpet, the service has been running a very successful award scheme that recognises the achievements of external researchers Bill. Tell us about some of the projects that have been recognised in that.    BS  It’s worth mentioning I think also that we've got case studies on our website, the Secure Research Service website and the ADRUK website, which show in a little bit more detail the impact some of these research projects have had, but like you say, we also hold an annual Research Excellence Awards, which is great. We have different categories of awards where people can submit their project and explain where their research has been published and had an impact. And like I said, we get a lot of nominations and reviewing the applications, which I did last year, it really emphasises the breadth and quality of the research taking place in the SRS.    MF  Check those out then if you're interested in learning more about those projects, some of the examples that Bill mentions and winners of the Research Excellence Awards, of course, one of whom I'm very pleased to say joins us now and that's Dr. Becky Arnold from the University of Keele, who took home the cross-government analysis award for her team's work on controlling the spread of COVID-19 in vulnerable settings in a project undertaken at the UK health security agency.   Becky I guess that's but another example of the kind of secondary uses of the COVID infection data. Welcome to the podcast. Please tell us all about that.    Dr. Becky Arnold  Yeah, very, very glad to. So first thing I want to talk about essentially is what a vulnerable setting is. And that was really key to the sort of cross governmental aspects of this because vulnerable settings are settings like care homes, hospitals, prisons, schools, where you have a lot of quite often vulnerable people in a really dense environment where COVID can sort of spread and get out of control really quickly. And if we want to define a testing policy for that, so our testing policy being perhaps everybody takes like three LFT tests a week, or maybe one monthly PCR test, but also other factors, like what's your isolation policy? So, if somebody is infected with COVID, how many days do they have to be isolated for? Do they need a negative test to be released? What is your outbreak policy in these institutions, if you know that there's an outbreak going on? It's this really, really complicated thing. And you know, for government policy, you need a testing regime to try and keep COVID under control in these settings. But there's a few difficulties with that. The first thing is that the settings are all really different. So, when I just mentioned about the cross governmental thing, it meant interacting with lots of different departments, lots of different data sources to try and understand these particular settings and their particular characteristics. The really, really critical point I want to make is that the whole project was about trying to understand what that testing policy should be. And the best testing policy in one setting may not be the best testing policy in another setting, because when we're trying to give advice to policymakers and policy departments about what testing strategy you should use in an institution, you don't want to just pull that out of the hat. You don't want to just go oh, I think this many LFT tests a week. We want to give data-driven, informed, evidence-based advice. So essentially, what this project was looking at was all of these different settings in a lot of detail, looking at the demographics within them and their particular vulnerabilities. So, care home residents are particularly vulnerable, as are people in prison. They're more clinically vulnerable than people of the same age that are not in prison and a bunch of different aspects, how people interact in these different settings, how infection spreads in these different settings. And from that, essentially, we created a model where you can simulate the spread of COVID in these different settings under different testing strategies. So, you can answer questions like if we use ‘x’ testing strategy versus ‘y’ testing strategy, what is the likely impact going to be on the number of people that died, the number of people that need hospitalisation, how many of those people that go to hospital are going to need intensive care, which often comes with long recovery and sometimes permanent impacts on people's lives. So, there are huge things to consider. And it's actually the point of this project was to study these environments and try and make something which can provide that evidence to inform decision making.    MF  This was data being gathered, presumably then in institutional settings up and down the country and then being collected centrally and made available to you at a single point of contact?    BA  It would have been very nice if that was the case. Because we're looking at so many different settings we were kind of scrambling around quite a lot just to try and identify what datasets were available and to sort of gather them together. And also there were so many different types of data that we needed to drive this. So firstly, like you say, the health outcomes data, in some cases, there were specific datasets available for certain institution types, but we weren't always able to get access to those for various reasons. But there were also considerations like the sort of data that was published every day, there's sort of a nationwide aspect, when we're also looking at another data type is how people interact within these different settings. For that we used an awful lot of literature review. We spoke to people that work in the settings. We spoke to people that work in care homes, we spoke to care homes franchise owners to understand their staffing policies and things related to that. We also spoke to government departments like the Department of Justice. So, it was a lot of different data sources all sort of gathered together for the various aspects of this project.    MF  This model you’ve created, what's its future? Perhaps in different scenarios that might arise in the future.     BA  The model was very, very carefully constructed to be as flexible as possible at the time for potential future COVID variants in mind, but because of that, it means it's very adaptable to different infectious diseases. So if you change just a few input parameters, like the mortality rates, you know, the infection rate, a few factors like that, it's quite easy to transform this model to simulate the spread of other infectious diseases. So, things like flu, which has a big impact on care homes every year and has the potential to be used to better understand how to combat that. But another thing that I think is very useful about this model is it has the ability to help us in game plan for potential future pandemics, because I think it's fair to say that governments around the world when COVID came along, were kind of caught by surprise, or wrong-footed, sort of without a game plan of how to respond. And as we know, the early stages, whether it's a single pandemic or an individual outbreak, it's those early stages which are really, really critical. With this sort of model, we can gameplan you know, what response should we give if we have a future pandemic with these properties? Say we've got this transmissibility, it's got this mortality rate, we have tests that cost this much and they give you this accuracy. In that scenario, what should we do? And to be able to do that research upfront and to have some sort of game plan in mind so that if and when future pandemics come along, we are better prepared and can respond efficiently and quickly to try and have the best outcomes possible. So that's something I think is really exciting for the for the future of this model.    MF   Okay, that's beautifully explained, thank you very much indeed.  Bill, so we've heard from Becky about how the data that she had to access had to come from many different places, but I guess that might have been an impediment to actually producing a model as rapidly in the pressing circumstances of the pandemic as it could potentially have been achieved. Does that suggest then that while the SRS has achieved on its own terms, a great deal, nevertheless, there have been limitations, and perhaps it's time to be doing this kind of data sharing across the public sector in a much bigger and better way?    BS  Yes. When I look at the sort of challenges and limitations around the SRS, I think there's probably three things, one of which is the ability to get the data sharing moving as fast as we need to meet this sort of policy need. The second area would be around the fact that actually the SRS is ageing technology now, and although it's performed really well, and especially during that sort of pandemic response we talked about earlier, it's fair to say it has struggled to cope with some of the really sort of heavy processing requirements that have come out of during that sort of COVID response. Some of the modelling required was much larger than the traditional sort of research projects we might have had in the SRS. And then the final thing is around some of the processes that we described earlier, that sort of five stages framework. All of our processes and rules apply to users, regardless of their sector. What that means is for government analysts who are seeking to access government data, working on government systems to inform government policy, there's a feeling that we could do things faster. Only 25% of our user base is government analysts at the moment, you know, I think that's something we certainly could improve to build that area of the service.    MF  Building the service then for the future is where Jason comes in, Jason Yaxley. As the director of the new Integrated Data Service, we've heard about potential, we've heard about the opportunity to do more in future. Tell us then about the Integrated Data Service, which promises to expand the amount of data available to researchers to speed up the delivery of it and to really produce a huge step-change or transformation in the ability of researchers to do this kind of work in the future. Is that a fair expectation?    Jason Yaxley  Hi Miles, pleased to be here. Yes, I think it's a very fair expectation. So I have the pleasure of being the programme director for the Integrated Data Programme, which will deliver the Integrated Data Service and the ONS is the lead delivery partner for all of government to deliver a transformation both in how government uses data, but also the underpinning technology that enables us to analyse and use that data much more quickly. And so that's a reason why we're one of the key enablers of the government's data strategy and why I view this very much as a transformation rather than just another big data lake where lots of government data goes and we can't really get into it. So, it's a really exciting opportunity. Were in the sort of middle stage of the programme where we have a service that is built and now we have to sort of grow it and expand it and get more data to really enhance its functionality, but it's a really exciting time. A really great job to have.    MF  And in terms of scale, what's the difference between IDS coming in, the Integrated Data Service, compared to the old, if I can put it that way, Secure Research Service?    JY  When it comes to the SRS, it is brilliant at what it does, but it's technology is starting to age and that is causing limitations. And I think what makes the Integrated Data Service sort of a step-change and perhaps unique across government falls into sort of four broad categories. There's the enabling infrastructure itself, which will be state of the art cloud-based, there is the data which will be much more friction free and will be quicker and easier to access data, use data, shar data. It will enable data visualisation in a way that's never been done before. And rather than having to do individual agreements to link one bit of data to a different bit of data, what we will have here is a service for people that will be scalable, repeatable, standardised, which makes it much much easier on a regular basis to link and index and then do research against much larger datasets much more quickly and produce faster results, which is going to be a huge benefit to the public good through the lens of better more informed and evidence-based policy decision making, that has much more statistical and analytical evidence that sits underneath it.   And so we're transforming both the data access itself and the technology that enables that, but also the sort of almost the cultural lens through which we work together. We share information to simplify it.  I really want to stress the IDS is keeping all the really good parts of SRS around the five safes, around the de-identification of data, protecting that data and ensuring that you know, public concerns about how government holds and uses data are entirely met.    MF  That's an obvious question isn't it, if this is happening much more widely on a much bigger scale, and how are those safeguards that were heard about from Bill going to be protected? How are they going to persist, and the same level of protection be provided?    JY   2023 is a big year for the programme, particularly March when we hope and we're aiming to receive our own Digital Economy Act accreditation in the same way that the SRS has. So we will carry forward the same safeguards that SRS has used so successfully, as I say around the five safes around, how users are accredited, but through technology and through the service that we operate, to streamline and simplify that, particularly for government users using government data. So this is about that cultural journey as well as that technological journey. Very central to what we're doing is the security of data, the protection of data, you know, we have to convince all of the Chief Technical Officers and all the data analysts across Whitehall that we are as safe and as secure as we could possibly be. So that they'll be comfortable with us having access to that data.    MF  Other potential areas that most UK government data will be made available will be accessible by researchers.    JY  And that's the end game. Absolutely. As I say, we're on a journey at this point. Again, 2023 is important to us. We've just brought in what we're calling super early adopters, which are strategic experienced government analysts from both Whitehall departments and the devolved administrations, particularly Welsh Government right now, and we have brought census 2021 data into the system very early. And so we're already working with government analysts to start to do early exploratory projects that unlocks the information and the power of the census data against certain government priorities, for example, around the economy or around energy, and particularly, we're working with Welsh Government to look at what is the impact of recent economic situation on the Welsh farming community and how can we analyse the industry against the information that we hold in the census data and other data sources to find outcomes of what's happened in say, the last 10 years between the two census datasets.    MF  So what happens next, what are the next steps on this? And particularly what's the message to researchers who think that they would like to be involved in this project?    JY  2023’s really big steps are, as I've just mentioned, DEA accreditation, we reach the next level of maturity for our functionality also in in March, which means in the rest of 2023, having had these two points in time, we’ll be in position to unlock the full sort of power of ideas, we will be wanting to encourage particularly more government researchers. Our aspiration is that every government professional analyst will be registered on and be able to use the service. We will accelerate our pipeline with Whitehall departments with data that we want to bring in. And over the life of the programme we will want to transition SRS itself, and its data and its users into IDS unlocking for those users as I say, the enabling technology of data visualisation, the speed and the pace, the scale. So, I at the moment feel that what we have is a huge warehouse with one corner that has data in it but the potential to fill it with as much data as we can in a way that is linked and matched and indexed. So that you can do much greater analytical research than hitherto has been possible. Just to illustrate that the way the way I like to think of it is there are a lot of people both in government and in academia that can do point to point linkage between dataset A, dataset B, and then run some research against it. And you can think of that perhaps as a ferry crossing a river from point A to point B on the other side, what helps visualise why IDs will be different is to think of us as a bridge and a road that goes over the river and so we can have multiple streams of traffic. We can have a much greater flow of information and research and all the agreements only have to be done once and then it's just repeatable from there. And that's one of the reasons why I'm so excited to be working with the colleagues on the programme and colleagues across government and academia to deliver the transformation which we aim to complete by March 2025. So we still have some way to go to fully exploit all of the technology and get all the data in, but we're on our way.    MF  In the meantime however, there are a couple of examples already out there that listeners might care to check out for themselves if they haven't already. The first of which is the climate statistics data dashboard, creating a one-stop shop if you like for statistics on climate change related topics, bringing together data from around government, you can see it at climate-change.data.gov.uk and another one is the violence against women and girls data dashboard that's vawg.GSS-data.org.uk, which has been created as an important part of the government's 2021 tackling violence against women and girls strategy. And of course, the very popular and widely used COVID dashboard which continues to be available as well. So real living examples of the Integrated Data Service already serving the public benefit.   Becky, if I could bring you back in again, if we're able to deliver on this and the warehouse as Jason described, it becomes bursting with data from right across government sources, presumably then in the future, the kind of work you told us about your award winning work during the pandemic will become that much faster, much easier to execute.    Dr. Becky Arnold  Yes, it really, really would. And I also can't understate how much the integration value of it of having things in the same place and linked just saves so much time and try to track down what data is available and then trying to combine it all together is such a undertaking. Having that sort of delivered there, sort of knowing what is available in a much more accessible way. Being able to use it much more readily would vastly, vastly speed up the sort of research that I did. But it would also be hugely, hugely valuable.    MF  Perhaps some of those listening to this Becky might be surprised actually at how difficult it has been to access public data like this in the past, and that government departments haven't collaborated in making it available in a single place.    BA  One of the biggest difficulties in doing the research I did was trying to get access. Just trying to find what datasets are out there is also a really, really big time sink and the idea of these all being integrated together and much more findable in a way that they aren't now is really, really exciting because it means that if you know what data there is you can use the most appropriate data for what you're trying to use, rather than trying to cobble together what you know exists and you can get your hands on. So integrating this all together in one place where it's findable. It would be a huge, huge win for the sort of research like what I did - or what my team did a lot more accurately. Another factor on that as well is the linking. It is so difficult if you've got different datasets compiled for completely different purposes by different departments - trying to combine those together is really hard. Even if they are about the same sorts of people, the same sorts of things. So having datasets that are already integrated would be a huge, huge step forward in trying to use that data as effectively as possible for the sort of research to drive evidence-based decision making in policy, which I think is something that is so important, and it's something I'm really passionate about.    MF  Becky, thank you very much for joining us. And thanks also to Jason Yaxley, and to Bill South for taking us through this important topic.   I'm conscious that we've approached it largely through the perspective of researchers. And the whole issue of data ethics and how public good is assessed. It's something we've tackled in a previous podcast - do please listen to that and hear about the work of the data ethics committee as well because obviously, confidence in these kinds of initiatives, public trust in these kind of initiatives, depends very much on people understanding the ethical framework under which this work goes on. That's another big topic we will return to in the future, no doubt, and also track progress in the development, the ongoing development, of the
ONS: The Year in Review
20-12-2022
ONS: The Year in Review
National Statistician, Sir Ian Diamond, joins Miles in a slightly festive episode of Statistically Speaking, to look back on some of the highlights and challenges for the ONS in 2022 while gazing positively, but objectively, towards 2023.    TRANSCRIPT    MILES FLETCHER  Hello, and as another statistical year draws to an end you join us for a slightly festive episode of Statistically Speaking.   I'm Miles Fletcher and with me this time is the national statistician himself, Sir Ian Diamond. We're going to pick out some of the key stats from another momentous year. Talk about some of its highlights and the challenges faced by the Office for National Statistics. We’ll gaze positively, but objectively, into 2023 and Sir Ian will be answering some of the questions that you our listeners wanted us to ask.   Ian, welcome once again to statistically speaking.    IAN DIAMOND  First, thanks very much for that introduction. And can I offer festive greetings to all of your listeners?    MILES  Yes, it's come around again quickly, hasn't it? So much to talk about from the past year, but let's kick off with a very big number in every sense, and that's 59,597,542    IAN  ...is the population of England and Wales according to the census, and one, which I have to say is one of the greatest censuses that has ever been undertaken. And it's just an absolute thrill to commend my colleagues who have worked so hard to deliver it but also to every citizen of England and Wales who filled in those forms in 2021, and of course, those in Northern Ireland as well.    MILES  Now, you had to press the button, both on the decision to have that field operation go out in March 2021, against the backdrop of the pandemic, and then of course, to sign off on the results. How difficult were those decisions?    IAN  Well, I'm not going to say it was difficult Miles, I mean, it was a difficult decision, but if you surround yourself with all the information, so before we took the decision to go with a 2021 census, we looked at all the upsides, all the downsides. We measured the risks. We looked at the cost of delaying and we looked at the chance that we would get a decent count, and whether people were looking like they were now prepared to fill in forms, which have a whole set of risks. Was there an algorithm that told us what to do? I'm afraid there isn't an algorithm at the end of the day, I had to make a decision. I made that decision in collaboration with my colleagues. It was a decision we took together, and I think in every way it was the right decision. And it was a real privilege for me to work with the team in March and April, as we looked at the numbers, and for the first time, and I think it's a really important milestone, that for the very first time we shared our results with the local authorities. I have always believed that you need to involve the people on the ground to sense check the numbers and so for the first time ever, we invited local authorities to be part of the quality assurance process. So we contacted them under a nondisclosure agreement. You have access to the numbers, let's have a conversation and then we can co-create the numbers so that we all feel comfortable and local authorities to their great credit, really embraced this opportunity to co-create what was a great piece of work. We believe that helped, that the numbers that we were able to produce, we felt we had much more traction. And so it really was a national effort to produce those numbers. And I'm very proud of them.    MILES  In hindsight, and of course, it's easy to look at things in hindsight, but did you think it helped that essentially there was a captive audience?     IAN  Not at all. I completely disagree. I think the reason for the high numbers wasn't a captive audience. Let's remember that a very high proportion of the population were not able to lock down, they had to go out to work. The reason I think that we got high numbers was because of three reasons. Number one, engagement. A massive programme of engagement with different communities, which really, really, really meant that people in different communities of our country understood why we were asking, what the reasons were, in a way that perhaps hadn't happened before, and critically to say to people, if you give us your data we're not going away. We'll be back. And there's now a programme of going back and sharing those data for particular communities with them. So that's the first reason. The second reason was, I've always said that censuses are nine tenths logistics and 1/10 statistics and I felt that the logistics here were absolutely right. And moving to an online first model was incredibly important, it made it very easy for people to respond. You could respond on your way to work on your mobile phone. That's an awful lot easier than having someone knock on your door with a big form. And so I think that worked. And then a final piece was after the day having really good management information, which really enabled us to understand where our coverage was higher and lower, and then to target our field workers in a way that we've never been able to before. Historically when I did censuses, for example the 1981 census, every enumerate had a small area, they walked around, they found people within that area. But we were able to say right, we need more people in a particular area, less people in another area, so we were moving them around, maximising the resources and maximising the count.    MILES  Okay, so what do you think are the biggest takeaways on the data we've released so far?    IAN  I think some of the work around the ageing of our country is really important, but not just the ageing of our country because let's be honest, ageing is associated with demand for services. And what we show very clearly is a changing geography of ageing. Now, that's an ongoing situation. So if you look at the proportion of over 65s, it's a very different proportion of over 85s and so there is clearly a new internal migration which gives in some areas, for example, mid Wales and Cambridgeshire, a new demographic to think about for services over time. So here's a really interesting point about the geography of ageing, while noting that some of it is pretty traditional, the south coast of England remains a place with high levels of older people. Seaton in Devon, with the highest proportion of people over 90 in the country is an area which already knows that it has a high demand for services. Other places will be coming along, and I think that’s the first thing to say. The second thing I would note Miles is the changing demographic of where people were born. And certainly we are able to reflect some of that in the work but also again to look at the geography of where different people are living. And that's important. And also, for the first time ever, we have asked questions on veterans, and I think that was a really, really interesting piece of information. I must admit that the age distribution initially looks a little surprising, because for men, almost everybody is a veteran over the age of 80 because of national service, and that goes down, but we now have the ability to identify both the geography and the age distribution of veterans and it was noticeable that the highest proportions of veterans tended to be in places with military bases, Richmond Shire, in Yorkshire, which is near to Catterick or Portsmouth near the Navy areas. That says to us that they are obviously, and I'm not saying it's surprising, but people who have been in the military tend to end up staying around the areas where perhaps they have been based, but actually being able to do that and then following that up with a survey, a survey of veterans to understand their circumstances and the services they need, and also their families, I think is really super important that I have to say that that survey which went out after the results of the census were published, and we were able to launch them on the same day with the Ministry of Veterans Affairs Johnny Mercer has been an incredibly successful survey. Great response. And we're just in the process now of analysing those data. And that's something to look out for in the new year.    MILES  And plenty more census data still to come. Of course,    IAN  Well, yes. And of course, the data will be available now for an analysis by anyone. And that's really exciting,    MILES  Well worth pointing out as well. Okay, here's another big number for you. 11.1%     IAN  Is inflation.     MILES  That was the figure in October, it's recently dropped down to 10.7.    IAN  You don't really understand inflation until you actually get down to what's driving it and what the components are. And so, we spend an enormous amount of time looking at the components to understand them. So this drop to temporary 7% In the most recent data is driven by a reduction in fuel costs, with fuel prices going down, I mean it's still too expensive don't get me wrong but they're going down a bit, and at the same time that has been offset by increases in alcohol prices at hotels, restaurants, and pubs. And so all put together, yes it’s a drop, but not an enormous drop, and still a significant rise compared with the same month last year.    MILES  Now there's been a fascinating and very public debate over the cost of living of course, and particularly over the relevance and validity of headline inflation measures, CPI or CPIH. A preferred measure on the one hand, and on the other hand, the actual experience of people seeing the cost of their weekly shopping shooting up much faster than the official rate, which is just an average of course, would suggest.    IAN  I think it's an important point. I had a very good conversation with a number of influencers in this area. And I think it is important to recognise that what one is asked to do, and we are statutorily responsible for producing an inflation statistic that is an average at the end of the day, and it's based on a basket of goods, and that basket gets changed every year to reflect buying patterns. So with a pandemic, we were more relaxed Miles and you would be sitting opposite me just wearing a jumper instead of a three-piece suit, it means that we took men's suits out of the basket this year, but that's an average. The point that people have asked is does that average reflect what's going up for all groups of society? What about those people who are at the poorer end of society and whose budget only allows them to buy the least priced goods and that's why we put together a least price index and one that's based on what might be called the value goods that Supermarkets sell. And if we look at those we found that the average price there was not unlike the overall inflation, but again, an enormous amount of heterogeneity on the various prices. The highest increase in the most recent products was for vegetable oil, of course, driven by the issues associated with Russia and Ukraine and the difficulties of the Ukrainian farms which drive so much of that area. On the other hand, beef mince and orange juice went down relatively. So there was heterogeneity, inflation was high, but let me be very clear, not unlike the overall inflation in the country as a whole on the average.    MILES  The important point here being that everyone's rate of inflation, of course is slightly different and we have a means now of allowing people to find out exactly what their personal rate is don’t we.    IAN  For those people who want to have a really close look at their budget, the personal inflation calculator which people can use and that personal inflation calculator has been massively used. We had a very good partnership with the media - BBC, The Guardian - for it to be widely available. And indeed, in the first 24 hours or so of it being available on the BBC website, over a million people used it - over a million people accessing ONS data.    MILES  And you can find that out of course by visiting ons.gov.uk and calculate your own personal rate of inflation there.    Of course, when we think about money, we inevitably think about work and that brings us on to the figures around the labour market. And one rather sombre area of the Labour Force Survey that's been the focus of again, a lot of attention this year, is the increasing number of people deemed to be economically inactive, perhaps very often because of long term sickness. Now, what do you make of that?    IAN  Economically inactive is not just people who are on sick, I mean there has been a steady move initially from those over age 50 to inactivity, and that means that they are reporting that they are not in work, nor are they looking for work. We've called it a bit of a flourish, that flight from the labour force of the over 50s is a real trend and a real worry for the economy, given the skills that those people hold, and we've done two surveys of the over 50s to understand why they have left the labour force and what might tempt them back in. 500,000 over 50s leaving the labour force, though it's only a very rough indicator, if you don't replace them somehow, and with every 100,000 people being around 0.1 of GDP full time equivalents, and that's 0.5 on the GDP. It's as simple as that. The other point I would make that I think is important is another real concern for the labour force. Just in the last few weeks we have started to see just a hint of an increase in inactivity amongst the 16 to 24s. That is important because if it were to continue it is normally an indicator of challenges in the labour force and when 16 to 24s are saying I don't have a job and I'm looking for one it tends to be because there isn't one around. And so I do think that there is an issue again for us to keep a laser focus on these numbers as we go into 2023.    MILES  Okay, so we've mentioned GDP and of course, there's been a lot of focus again on the level of GDP and whether the economy is in so called recession or expanding or whatever. Let's not get into that in any great detail now, but it's worth pointing out that alongside GDP, the ONS has been trying for some time now to broaden its focus on what matters in terms of wellbeing, both socially and economically. And to produce a more comprehensive picture of what's going on, aside from that very raw, basic GDP estimate. Can you tell us a little bit about what's developed on that front this year?    IAN  I think that's a really interesting point. We, as other parts of the world’s national statistical institutes have been saying, well, actually, there is much more to our gross domestic product than just what comes strictly from the economy. And so we have been working on the environment and natural capital and building that into our overall estimates. And we're now also working on some things that I have been thinking about for a long time and I'm very excited that we are going to be able to work on that. And that is to look at in many ways at the human capital that we have, and how that is being effectively used. If you are spending six hours a day, shall we say, caring for your elderly parent and perhaps your grandchildren, then are you being productive or not? And of course, the answer is you're being incredibly productive. Or if you are, as a neighbour of mine is, working a couple of evenings or a couple of afternoons a week at a homeless shelter in Somerset, then are you being productive in that volunteering? 100% yes. And so I think it is important that we build these extra pieces in now. Is this point about human capital, is this new? Well, the great, famous Nobel Prize winner Richard Stone wrote in his Nobel lecture about this, I made some suggestions, but at that time I would submit that it was actually quite hard to build the models in the way that one would want to. One could do the algebra, but it would kind of drop out after a while. Whereas now with numerical estimation, we can really move forward in an effective way and I'm looking forward to 2023 being a year when we really push forward with those models, and really build the human capital. And most importantly, alongside that, the wellbeing. Wellbeing is a much more complex indicator, and we have a consultation out at the moment which I see coming into fruition in 2023 around the measurement of our wellbeing. We talk about the increasing proportion of elderly and I think it is also important to think about that in the context of how are people ageing. Now, let me just give you a statistic, Miles. If I looked in 1951 at the age at which 1% of men had a probability of dying, that'd be about 50. If I looked at it now, it’s 65. So 65 is the new 50. And you can look at things in all kinds of ways like that, but that original idea is that of the great demographer James Vaupel. And this 65 is the new 50 is absolutely brilliant, but, and this is the nub of this, it needs to be healthy ageing. It comes back to that point about inactivity, what are we doing to enable people to feel that they can age healthily and therefore be productive whether that is through traditional paid employment or through other issues such as volunteering, that's something we will be spending a lot of time over the next little while estimating.    MILES  You mentioned ageing and on the topic of health in 2022, the introduction of what some may view as the GDP of health and that is the Health Index for England. Another important piece of work that's been going on here.    IAN  What the Health Index allows us to do is to get down to the local levels and we've got a pilot with colleagues in Northumberland, Director of Public Health up there to go down to sub local areas. And I think the important thing to recognise is the geographical difference here in levels of health. It's interesting to look at the national level, we need to look at the geography, expectations of life at birth for men in Glasgow City are 14 or 15 is less than expectations of life for men in places like Westminster and Kensington and Chelsea, you know, that's a real issue. When I worked in Scotland, the Director of Public Health for Grampian region put out some statistics which showed within Aberdeen the difference between the two wards, probably seven or eight miles apart was 16, a full 16 years. Those are the kinds of differentials that I think we need to understand more, we would all agree it is a priority to reduce those inequalities in health. And it seems to me there is a challenge for us to understand that and to reduce those inequalities.    MILES  Okay, so we've talked about health, personal wellbeing, economic wellbeing as well. Now there's an additional element of attention for the ONS now, and that's been the environment and particularly monitoring progress towards net zero emissions by 2050 and to help with that ONS has contributed to the official climate change portal, which you can view at climate-change.data.gov.uk. Here's a statistic from that, in 2021 84% of our energy still came from non-renewable sources.    IAN  And that's what we need to continue to measure. And clearly the focus on energy and energy supply has increased this year as a result of the conflict in Ukraine. And we over the next while need to make sure that we have very accurate data on sources of energy. And our job is to monitor that in an effective and efficient way. And we will do that.    MILES  Now, we mentioned to some of our podcast listeners, we'd be speaking to you today and asked them to come up with their own questions on topics they'd like to put to you.   So let's kick off with this one from Professor Athina Vlachantoni, from the University of Southampton no less, who asks: What's the most intriguing number or statistic you've come across during your time as national statistician?    IAN  One of the most interesting I would have to say, was the very first number that we got from the COVID infection survey, because we had to look at it very, very, very carefully, to make sure going back to an individual level, to look at the amount of virus in each positive case, so that we were sure that we did not have a high number of false positives. And what that showed, and when we linked it in with our questions about symptoms, was the number of asymptomatic cases. And I found that really, really interesting. On a lighter note, the data that we get from credit card and debit card sales. On July 21, I think it was in 2021, “Freedom Day” as it was called, when people were able to go to the pub we saw a spike in sales in pubs but we were also able to identify whether those sales were in person or online. We've been monitoring online sales during the pandemic very carefully. And I was really surprised to see a spike in sales in pubs with the person not present. I was wondering whether there were people down the street, you know, with very long straws. Of course, what I hadn't realised is that in some pubs now, you can get an app for your beer and it arrives as if by magic at your table. And so it was a learning experience for me that it was possible for large numbers of people to enjoy a drink, while apparently not being at the pub.    MILES  Well, that's a lovely example of fast digital data contributing towards incredible insight, which the ONS is now able to access. But actually it leads nicely on to our next question which comes from Sam Smith, from Cambridge, who asks: Hhat are the longer-term opportunities and threats to the public from the use of safe settings and the Integrated Data Service? Now that's a question that’s essentially about security and the ethical use of data for the public good.    IAN  Sam, that's a really super question and something that we're absolutely passionate about. Firstly, using data positively on the lives of our fellow citizens is what we're here for, and therefore we recognise at all times that we use data with the implicit permission of the public. So the first answer I would say to Sam is that we are absolutely committed to public engagement, transparency to make sure people know what we're doing, how we're doing it. And we don't just talk about data, but what are we going to use it for, and how is it going to be used and can you find out how it has been used. These are really, really important questions and public engagement and involving the public in our decision making is important. Secondly, when we build something like the Integrated Data Service, we are very, very careful about the security and we work very closely with the top security people across government to make sure that we have the highest levels of security so that all the data doesn't need to be in one place. We are able to bring the data we need from different places so that we're not, if you like, moving large amounts of data around and forming data lakes, that is not what we do. Thirdly, we are very, very careful about how people can use the data and how they can access the results. So we work very carefully to make sure that those results have no way for people to impact on the privacy and our data can only be used by approved people and the projects on which they work on have to go through an ethical committee and have to go through a research approvals panel. We call this process “the 5 safes” and we believe that that does enable us to be able to look any member of the public in the eye and say that we are taking every precaution with your data, but at the same time, the proof of the pudding has to be in the eating and the public have to be able to see, I would argue, how those data have been used and how there are real concrete examples of how the lives of them or their fellow citizens have been improved by the use of linked administrative data.    MILES  Final question. This comes from Jennifer Boag from Scotland - clue there - and she asks: Do you have confidence that the work being done to retrieve Scotland’s census will give us reliable UK wide statistics, so that Scotland's data will be comparable with the rest of the UK?      IAN  Well, thanks, Jennifer, for that. A census is a process and we are seeing that our colleagues in Scotland working on the Census have now got the ability to use the data they collected as well as the coverage survey, and now the administrative data, to be able to bring those three sources together into a reliable estimate of the population. I would just like to thank Professor James Brown and the international steering group for the very hard work that they've been putting in providing very strong steers on what should we do. And my position at the moment is that we can expect, if everything goes well, to see some reliable Scottish data during 2023. And we at the ONS are working extremely hard to make sure that we can roll forward our data in a way that means that we will have the 22 best estimates for the whole of the UK which we can put our hand on heart and say that we trust. We're not there yet. I believe we can get there. And I will do everything in my power to ensure that we do.    MILES  Data from Scotland on the way then, and more data from England and Wales still to come, but also in 2023 a decision on whether the UK Scotland, England, Wales and Northern Ireland perhaps will have censuses in future?    IAN  Well not a decision on all four because undertaking a census isn't independent that Scotland and Northern Ireland will take their own view, as will Wales. Currently we do the census for Wales with our colleagues in Wales, but at the end of the day it is a Welsh Government decision for that to happen. We in the ONS will be making a recommendation to our board and through them a recommendation to Parliament as to whether we believe that we can produce regular population estimates and the multivariate data that comes with them in a way that means that we will not have need to have another census in 2031. I mean, I would say that we're able to do this and there's an enormous amount of work going on. And that's a real major breakthrough because while I'm passionate about censuses and a census is an incredibly beautiful and wonderful thing, I would have to say that it is out of date as soon as you've done it, and therefore being able to have regular estimates would be a breakthrough rather than simply rolling forward and we can't hide from the fact that as you roll forward and you get further rolling forward, it becomes much more difficult at the local area level to make those estimates. And so I am really excited about that decision and will be consulting during 2023 on where we have got to, which of course also brought about a statutory responsibility to see whether we can make local estimates of average income, and we will continue to look at that as well. So I think it's an exciting 2023 with regard to the future of the census.   Miles, it's been a real pleasure. Thank you very much, and I look forward to another opportunity to join this podcast in the future. Thank you.    MILES   Well, that's it for another episode of Statistically Speaking and if you're one of the people who collectively browsed the ONS website 21,809 times on Christmas Day last year, rest assured that this year you'll be able to access every single one of our podcasts from 2022 directly from the homepage now on the ONS website.   And as always, you can subscribe to future episodes on Spotify, Apple podcasts and all the other major podcast platforms. Do also please follow us on the @ONSfocus Twitter feed.   I'm Miles Fletcher and from myself, our producer Steve Milne, and the whole of the Office for National Statistics, have a very Merry Christmas.    ENDS
Health: The role of public data in taking the pulse of a nation.
28-11-2022
Health: The role of public data in taking the pulse of a nation.
Miles is joined by colleagues from the Health and Life Events team to explore how data is good for our health. Within the diagnosis: the Health Index, dubbed “the GDP of health”; the impacts of Covid-19 as well as an ageing society; and the increasing importance of linking data from numerous sources to generate complex insights that inform decision-making.    TRANSCRIPT    MILES FLETCHER  Welcome again to Statistically Speaking the Office for National Statistics podcast. This time we're taking the pulse of the nation's health and exploring the role of public data in making it better. Of course, we would say that statistics are good for you. We recommend at least five a day, but more seriously, what do the ONS figures say about the state of our health now? And what are we doing to create new and better statistical insights to support a healthier population in future?   With us to examine all are ONS colleagues, Julie Stanborough, Deputy Director of Health and Life Events, Neil Bannister, Assistant Deputy Director of Health Analysis and, later in the podcast, Jonny Tinsley, Head of Health and Life Events Data Transformation.   Julie to start with you. The World Health Organisation defines health as a state of complete physical, mental and social wellbeing and not merely the absence of disease or infirmity. Now, the ONS has begun a major project that seeks to capture the key elements of that in one place and to a certain extent in one single number. Can explain what that is, and what it's all about?    JULIE STANBOROUGH  Yes, so that will be the Health Index, and as you say, it is kind of regarded as the GDP of health. And at its simplest, it allows the health of England and local authorities to be tracked over time, which allows greater understanding of the relationships between the drivers of health and health outcomes. So the index starts in England in 2015. And we've got data up to 2019, which is available online, but we're going to be publishing 2020 figures very shortly.    MF  So tell us about the nuts and bolts, what are the data sources here and how have they been put together?    JS  We've got a huge number of different data sources that go into the Health Index. We've grouped them into three different themes, that we have healthy people, healthy lives and healthy places. And we use data sources from within ONS, but also from across government, and more broadly, to give that really in-depth breadth of all the data that goes into health.    MF  What sort of factors, what sort of elements are we looking at? People living without serious health conditions?    JS  Yeah, so it's a whole range of things. For example, looking at child poverty through to access to green spaces, life expectancy, a whole range of different factors which contribute to whether a particular area is deemed to have high health index or a low health index.    MF  Is there particular value - because you can understand wanting to understand disparities at local level and we'll talk about that a bit a bit later - but boiling it down to a single reading, a GDP. That's a very ambitious thing. How useful, how relevant, is that figure going to be? Is it something that the future will look to us regularly and take as seriously as a big number like GDP?    JS  I'd really hope so. And I think because the complexity of health is so complex, if we can boil it down to one number and be able to track that over time, at a national level, or at a local level, that really helps people understand what's going on and helps them to engage, but equally because it has all the different data sources in there, it allows those policy makers in local authorities to be able to go into that data and explore what really is happening in their particular area.    MF  More than simply measuring the outputs or successes of the health services, it's about understanding a much wider range of factors as well as the environment in which people live and their socio-economic position as well.    JS  That's right. I mean, there are so many different aspects to it. And that's why the Health Index has so many different data sources in there. But because of that complexity, it makes it really difficult for people to understand what they should be doing to improve the health in their areas. So you need that breadth, but then the ability to aggregate it up into a single number helps with the accessibility.     MF  So the index will provide this big reading of this multi factor estimate of health but perhaps it'll be the case that it isn't so much what the index says at any given time, but how it changes over time, that'll be its real value.    JS  That's right. And it's being able to track that at a national level. And at a local level. We're going to be publishing 2020 results, but we're going to have to be quite careful with those results because it'd be the first year with the pandemic and so we'd expect to be seeing some changes as a result of the pandemic. But equally, some of the data collections will have changed as a result of not being able to interview people in the same way because of lockdown. So we're going to have to monitor that data over 2020 / 2021 and further to really see the impact of the pandemic.    MF  And provide also perhaps some measure of people's changing economic circumstances at a time when there's so much concern obviously around the cost of living.   In the meantime, because this project the Health Index is still in its relative infancy of course we have a wealth of other data already that the ONS generates and brings in from elsewhere and works with. Of course the number one indicator of a nation's health is our life expectancy - how long we might be expected to survive. Tell us what's been happening - the broad picture - as far as life expectancy is concerned.    JS  Life expectancy, if I just explain what that is, is a statistical measure which estimates the average number of years a person can expect to live. So male life expectancy at birth in the United Kingdom for the years 2018 to 2020 was 79 years, and that compared to 83 years for females. And during the past two decades life expectancy has grown, but much faster growth appeared in the naughties, and during the 2010s. We've seen that life expectancy pretty much slow right down and flatten.    MF  As well as this obviously the key measure of life expectancy. There's another important dimension here and this is particularly relevant if we're talking about health and that of course is healthy life expectancy because it's all very well to be alive, but if you have not got a great quality of life, well that brings all sorts of other issues and it brings problems for the health service as well of course. Tell us about healthy life expectancy. What is that as a statistic, how is that measured? What are the characteristics that inform healthy life expectancy?     JS  It's slightly different to life expectancy. Healthy life expectancy is a measure of the average number of years someone can expect to live in good health or free from limiting illness, and in 2018 to 2020 male healthy life expectancy at birth in the UK was 63 years, which meant that you had 16 years of life in not good health. In contrast for females, they had 64 years of healthy life expectancy, which meant that they had 19 years of life in not good health.    MF  That's fascinating and obviously begs the question, has that period of healthy life expectancy been going up in line with overall life expectancy, or have people simply been living longer in poor health?     JS  Yeah, so between 2011/13 and 2018/2020, both males and females, there was no improvement in health and life expectancy.    MF  That goes some way to explaining some of the current pressures on the National Health Service.    JS  That's right. I mean, if you've got more people that aren't in good health and have limiting conditions that's going to have increasing pressure on our health services and our GP services.    MF  And it does mean also that people are dying from different things, and they might have died younger from different conditions. They're living longer, but perhaps in poorer and poorer health in many cases, and in the end, actually dying from different causes. What are the data saying?    JS  So there's a range of different factors which are associated with a healthy life expectancy, and things that you'd probably think yourself. So when we looked at areas across the country with the lowest healthy life expectancy, 29% of males aged 30 to 49 smoked compared to just 17% of those that were in the highest healthy life expectancy areas. So smoking is clearly one of the drivers. We've also looked at whether people are overweight, and more than one in eight children in the lowest healthy life expectancy areas became overweight between entering primary school and starting secondary school. In contrast, those in the highest healthy life expectancy areas, it was just one in every 10. So there's a number of different factors there that we can see are driving it.    MF  If any justification was needed on why public health campaigns tend to concentrate on issues like obesity and smoking that's starkly revealed in the numbers.   So that's the big picture. That's what's happening at a national level. But tell us about the differences from place to place because the local variations are quite significant too, aren’t they?    JS  That's right. So to commit those geographical variations, Ribble Valley in Lancashire is ranked the healthiest out of 307 local authority areas in England, and that's using the Health Index.  MF  And the least healthy?  JS  So we do have all those rankings, but we do try to not think about the scores in a sort of ranking capacity. The whole point of having this information put out there is for local authorities to be able to compare themselves with similar local authorities or their nearest neighbour and see how different aspects of health are given the different policy initiatives that they're implementing in their local areas.    MF  Because lo and behold, whenever these league tables – and I do emphasise that we don't claim them to be league tables, they're often seen as such - when they appear of course, people want to know where is top. Whereas, surprise surprise, normally it goes with socio-economic status doesn't it. To put it bluntly, the better off areas see the highest life expectancy and healthy life expectancy?    JS  Yes, that's right. And even for those areas, you'd want them to be perhaps comparing themselves to other similar areas with the same sort of socio demographics and then to think about where different aspects of, whether it's smoking prevalence or childhood obesity, how are those different areas responding, what are the policies that they're putting in place to try and improve those statistics.    MF  Because again, it's not a matter of stating the obvious, which is self-evident, isn't it? Health outcomes tend to be better in more prosperous areas. This has been well known for some time, although we opened a local paper the other day writing up some of these numbers and saying certain towns in the West Midlands have been named and shamed as having the worst health locally. This is emphatically not about naming and shaming areas, neither is it about stating the obvious. As you say it's about informing better health outcomes, so resources can be better targeted.    JS  That's right. I was actually looking at a Coventry Marmot city review, and they have been using a whole range of different public health measures to try and improve the outcomes in that area. And one of the key measures they use is healthy life expectancy. They're comparing the outcomes after a number of years in their area to what's been going on nationally. So it's helping them benchmark the initiatives that they've been putting in place    MF  As with the overall Health Index itself, it sets the standard doesn't it. Puts in numbers what is clearly self-evident, but useful numbers because they give you that sense of the scale of the issue at the local level. That's at least as far as England is concerned, but also we've been working with the devolved administrations around the United Kingdom as well, and what do we know about that picture?    JS  So on the Health Index, that's actually one of the areas that we were looking to expand. So the Health Index at the moment covers England – we would really like to develop them for Scotland, Northern Ireland and Wales and then create a UK wide one as well. So that's something that we're looking to develop in the future.    MF  That's a work in progress, and a ‘watch this space’ then for forthcoming publications, both of the Health Index and of data being compared across the UK as well.    So Neil, people are living longer, but with that experiencing a whole range of health conditions. Tell us what we're picking up in the data and what's changing.    NEIL BANNISTER  That’s right Miles. So age is a very big important social determinant for health and an ageing society places a big burden on the health and social care systems in the country. Recent Census analysis from the 2021 Census showed that nearly one in five people in England and Wales was over 65 now, with the fastest increase happening in the 85 plus age group. So there really is a fundamental kind of growth in the ageing population, and that leads to increases in certain disease types. So for example, we know that being in an elderly age group you can experience being more disabled and having more multiple chronic and complex health conditions as well as there being an increase in dementia and Alzheimer's disease. So for example, with dementia, we know that around about 900,000 people in the UK have been diagnosed with dementia and by 2025 it is expected to reach around about 1 million people in the UK. In terms of how we look at it from our data within ONS, we know that 12.5% of all deaths that we record are caused by dementia and Alzheimer's, and it is the leading cause of death in age groups over 80 plus within England and Wales.  MF  That is a relatively recent development.   NB  That's right. So that's happened really over the last three to five years, we've seen this increase in the dementia and Alzheimer's as a leading cause of death in England and Wales.    MF  And is the rate of increase showing any sign of abating?     NB  Well, if you take away the COVID pandemic period, no, it doesn't. It looks like it's actually on track to continue to be the leading cause of death and with the new figures that we have in from Census showing there is an ageing population, and the age is increasing, we would expect there to be a continued increase in the number of deaths from dementia and Alzheimer's and, as I said, the number of diagnoses as well.    MF  Yes, that's a stark finding and something you'd suspect we're going to be hearing quite a lot more about.    NB  It's not just within the UK that this is occurring though. When you look across other economically developed countries. So looking at the data from the OECD, for example, we can see that Japan, Italy and Greece - these are countries with well-known elderly populations - they have a very high prevalence of dementia. The UK out of the 44 OECD countries UK is 15th highest in terms of the prevalence of dementia, which is equivalent to where Denmark is as well in terms of comparability.    MF  And that speaks loudly to some of the challenges the health system is going to face in future, and the social care sector as well, which is already under pressure in some respects. Tell us about the potential impacts there, what are we seeing?    NB  What we found during the pandemic is that there are big gaps in data around social care statistics and being able to understand that population within our society and that group in society.    MF  Is that because the sector is diverse, and it's sprawling and it's uncertain and in places it's quite informal?    NB  Absolutely. There are different types of social care. There's social care that happens within care residences, and there's also social care that happens within the home. There’s a big private industry there as well as the public sector being involved. And trying to pull together information across that diverse and complex landscape is very difficult.    MF  What are we doing to try and close some of those gaps?    NB  So we're working very closely with the Department of Health and Social Care. They have a large programme of work to try and collate data and improve data collections across the piece. What we've been doing, we've been looking at particular areas. So we're looking at trying to understand more about self-funders - individuals who fund their own social care, as opposed to those who have the state to fund it for them. And other areas of what we're doing is to look also at the workforce in social care, which is very hard to track over time and to understand the size and scale of that workforce. So that's another area of work that we're doing.    MF  And this is just part of a much wider body of work going on across the ONS to try and shed new light on health inequalities in particular.    NB  Yes, that's right. So we are going to be using the Census, the 2021 census data, to really look in more detail at social care once that data becomes available. But what we have been able to do though, during the COVID pandemic, is use the 2011 census data to link to other sources to really understand how, for example, the COVID pandemic had impacts across a number of different groups in society. We were able to produce statistics for the first time looking at the impact that COVID had on particular ethnic groups, on religious groups, and on the disabled groups in society.    MF  And what did we discover about the unequal impacts of COVID?     NB  Yeah, so when we're looking at ethnicity for example, since the start of the period where the Omicron variant was more prominent, we found that the Bangladeshi ethnic group of males had the highest rate of death of COVID-19, as opposed to the white British group. And we also found that for females, the Pakistani ethnic group had the highest rate of death involving COVID-19, which is 2.5 times higher than that of the white British group    MF  On the topic of ethnicity, was it factors such as the nature of the occupations undertaken by those groups, or perhaps socio-economic status, living conditions and so forth? Or was there something, by the very nature of their ethnicity, that was actually contributing towards higher mortality? Have we got to the bottom of that?    NB  It's very hard to know that, Miles. What we've done is some complicated modelling to understand, and we've taken into account certain social demographic groups and economic factors, but we still do find that certain ethnic groups have a higher rate of death, even when taking into account those factors. Things that it could be, but we don't know the detail yet, could maybe be how people in those ethnic groups live in terms of having multi-generational households, for example, and maybe that was a contributing factor, but to understand that in more detail much more work is needed to be done.    MF  Another area where research remains in progress. And also more recently, we've gone into partnership with one of the world's great philanthropic organisations to try and uncover what's going on behind some of these inequalities.    NB  That's correct. So there's a piece of work that we're doing working with the Wellcome Trust and the Race Equality Foundation. And what we're trying to do is to understand that there are different sources of ethnicity data within the health system and also with our Census data as well. What we know is that there are different qualities of how that data is recorded. What we're doing with the Wellcome Trust is to really understand the quality of the data across the different sources so we can provide a better understanding of the analysis that can be done with those data sources, which is really important as its data itself, which is a fundamental building block of any analysis that we can undertake. And the quality of that.    MF  It's quite hard to disentangle the effects of the pandemic at the moment, and it's probably worth discussing those. Are we in a position yet to know how life expectancy has been affected by COVID?    NB  At the moment, we have some indication. So the last publication we produced for healthy life expectancy covered the period of 2018 to 2020, which has a period of a COVID pandemic within that analysis, and that did show that there has been a drop in healthy life expectancy both in England, Wales and Scotland. But what we don't know for certain yet is the full impact of that because we haven't had the data to analyse for the entire pandemic period. And that's work that's ongoing within the office.    MF  So we will in due course then be able to get a much better understanding to what extent life expectancy might have been impacted by long COVID. But in the meantime, other ONS data suggest that a lot of people at least say or think they are suffering long term effects from it.    JULIE STANBOROUGH  That's right. We estimate over 2 million people in the population are experiencing long COVID. And it is self-reported long COVID. So we collect this data from the COVID Infection Survey, which was started at the beginning of the pandemic and people are reporting whether they're experiencing a whole range of different symptoms, which are associated with long COVID. And we've been monitoring that on a monthly basis to see whether those numbers have been increasing or decreasing and which types of people in the population are more likely to be experiencing long COVID.   MF  And what’s been the pattern of those numbers?  JS  It’s actually been broadly stable, a slight upward trend but broadly stable over time, and you would hope that over time it will start to drop down, but we're not in that situation at the moment.    MF  So the data at the moment is seeming to suggest that - so obviously, we know a lot of people have been infected - a lot of people seem to be suffering symptoms for a protracted period afterwards, but at least as far as the data are concerned, they will tend to imply a lot of those people are getting better.    JS  So we measure whether people are experiencing long COVID after a set number of weeks. So there's a significant proportion of people that still experiencing long COVID At least 12 months after their first infection – it is a small group but it is a significant number of people. But of course it has impacts on their ability to go about their day to day lives. Look after family, go to work, study. So it does have a significant impact on people   MF  And what sort of effects are they reporting?   JS  So it can be a range of things from fatigue, breathing difficulties to perhaps more severe symptoms. So a whole range of different symptoms.     MF  What further analysis are we doing on the impacts of COVID generally? We've explored differences in ethnicity, other characteristics as well. Tell us a little about that work and what’s up next for this programme of research.    JS  As you say, yes, we've done a whole range of different analysis to support the COVID pandemic. A lot of the analysis that we have produced has gone into the COVID Insights tool, which is on the ONS website. And that brings together a range of different data and analysis around hospitalizations, infections and deaths but also tries to put it into a sort of societal context, in terms of wellbeing, and employment as well. It's actually one of the most looked at on the ONS site.    MF  So even though the pandemic subsides - as at least we hope it will - a lot of work will continue to assess its full impact.    JS  That's right. It will be trying to understand in more depth what happened during the pandemic as well as monitoring the long-term effects, either on employment or in terms of people experiencing long COVID.    MF  The ability to link data to provide complex insights, of course, is such an important area of research at the moment.   And that brings us to Jonny Tinsley. Jonny this is very much your area of expertise.   And with that in mind, tell us about the Public Health Data Asset. What is that and how does that bring together data in that very useful way?    JONNY TINSLEY  During the pandemic data became incredibly important to understand what was going on and a lot of data sources in the health space exist. The NHS collects an awful lot of information about people and a lot of other organisations produce analysis, including the NHS themselves of that data. But one of the things that is unique to ONS is its access to non-health data and in particular, the Census data. By bringing in some of that health data from the NHS, which we’re able to do for statistical purposes, we were then able to link that with the Census 2011 data and also our mortality data and create what we call the Public Health Data Asset. And what that effectively gives us is a huge cohort of people that were here in 2011, at the Census and then in combination with that mortality and health data able to analyse, giving it such a huge cohort of people. It allows us to have quite a lot of power and the statistics we can produce and pick up. Some of the differences that Neil was talking about actually, because the Census data includes things like ethnicity, religion, and disability status. We're able then to look at differences across those groups for things like COVID-19 mortality.    MF  So we can track essentially, as I understand it, we can track what's happened to individuals' health over that period of time, from the information supplied to Census and from their interactions with the NHS and other public services?    JT  To give a specific example, what we can do is for these different groups, so the Census effectively allows us to separate out the groups. For example, it shows that these people are of this ethnicity whereas these people are of this ethnicity, and then for those groups we will then know which people have died and when and what was the cause, in particular during the pandemic obviously, whether that cause was
Crime: Understanding its impact on society through data.
31-10-2022
Crime: Understanding its impact on society through data.
In this episode of Statistically Speaking Miles is helped with his enquiries by Meghan Elkin and Billy Gazard from the Office for National Statistics, as he investigates how we use data to get valuable insights into the impact of crime on modern society. Along the way he debunks common misconceptions; learns how the nature of crime continues to evolve; and uncovers the work being done behind-the-scenes to make crime data more inclusive.   TRANSCRIPT   MILES FLETCHER  Hello, and welcome again to ‘Statistically Speaking’ the Office for National Statistics podcast. I'm Miles Fletcher and in this episode, we're going to be investigating crime.   What is the statistical evidence that despite the impression you might have got from the media, overall crime in England and Wales has actually been falling? Or is it the case that the nature of crime has simply changed and we're more likely these days to be targeted online than in the streets, and what in any case is the value of understanding the overall level of crime when that term captures such a wide and varied range of social ills and harms?   Helping us with our enquiries today are Meghan Elkin, head of the ONS centre for crime and justice, and Billy Gazard head of acquisitive crime and stakeholder engagement.   Meghan, so much to talk about in the many and varied crime figures that ONS produces, but let's focus first on where those numbers come from. In this case, there are two major data sets and the first and arguably the most significant of those, statistically at least, is a very large survey and it's not information gathered from the police or government. It's information that comes directly from people and their experience of crime. Tell us all about that.     MEGHAN ELKIN  That's correct. So the best source we have for measuring crime is the crime survey for England and Wales and this is a massive undertaking. We interview around 34,000 people aged 16 and over each year, and over 2000 children, and we really appreciate everyone who takes the time to respond to our survey as it helps us to produce these important figures. As you said, crime covers a wide range of offences and there's no perfect source, but the crime survey has had an established methodology over a long period of time, which really helps us to get a good idea of the trends and changes in society that people are experiencing.    MF Give us a sense of the scale of this operation. Is it one of the biggest surveys the ONS runs?    ME  It is, I would say that we are consistently speaking to 34,000 people each year and what's probably different to most surveys is that we have children as part of the response as well. So when we go to a household, we'll interview an adult, so someone aged 16 and over, to ask about their experiences. If there are children aged 10 to 15 in their household. We'll also ask if one of them would be able to complete our children's survey so that we get a picture of the crime that they're experiencing as well.    MF  And what is the particular value of speaking people to people face to face in their homes like that?    ME  I mean, the real value of the crime survey for measuring the trends is that it doesn't matter if people have reported what they've experienced to the police or not, so unlike police recorded crime, it doesn't have that impact. And so we can ask people about their experiences in the last 12 months. We'll also ask them questions about their attitudes towards crime related issues such as the police and amount of security that they have, and for the most sensitive questions rather than being asked by the interviewer directly, we'll give someone a tablet so that they can complete those questions privately themselves to ensure that confidentiality and confidence in telling us such sensitive information.    MF  That’s taken the survey into some quite new areas, hasn't it in recent years, would you like to talk about some of those developments? You talk about actually, and this is highly unusual, of course a very sensitive area, it's about the ability to actually speak to children as well. Tell us to what end that work has been directed...    ME  So for children in particular, we've been working closely with a number of stakeholders to understand what's most useful for us to ask children. So we do collect their general experiences of crime in the last 12 months, but we also ask them about their experiences online and that's provided some really useful data about children's lived experiences about being bullied and whether that's happening at school or online, but also the behaviours and activities that sometimes could be quite risky that they're taking part in online. And that's given some new information into that sector that we had just not understood before, and has been really useful in shaping policy and understanding how children can be better protected online.    MF  So this is quite an intensive encounter with the ONS data gatherer as they're sitting down for about 40 to 45 minutes or so. But how are the people selected? And how do you go about ensuring that they're a good representative sample and that we're not missing out important sections of the population, which, on a subject like this, of course, it's very important to get a really accurate picture of how people are experiencing crime at that grassroots level.    ME  So we use a postcode address file, basically a list of addresses to sample from, so households are chosen at random to ensure that we've got a representative sample for England and Wales. That's why it's really important and we really appreciate people responding to the survey because that's how we ensure good quality data, by getting that good, rounded sample.    MF  So there's a lot of rich data coming out of the crime survey, but by its nature, it doesn't cover some of the more serious offences does it?    ME  No that's true, particularly the higher harm but lower volume crimes, for example knife crime, those don't appear in the survey very often. And so we look to other data sources for those. It also excludes crimes that are often termed “victimless”, such as possession of drugs, which again, we then measure through different sources.    MF  And that is where the other major data source starts to become more relevant. We're looking at very serious offences particularly, including murder and rape. Those offences are covered by the police and their recording of crime. Tell us about the value of that data, and how that contributes to the wider understanding of crime.    ME  So the police record all the crimes that are reported to them and those are fed into us via the Home Office as a record of police recorded crime. And it has lots of advantages as a data source in that for some crime types, it is a good measure. And unlike the crime survey for those crime types, it can be very good at looking at short term trends. So particularly through the pandemic it was helpful for some of those crime types where we know that it's a better measure. But we also know that there are a lot of crimes that people don't report to the police and that's where that source of data struggles the most, particularly for really hidden crimes. Rape would be one of those crimes, where relatively few people do report that to the police so it doesn't appear in the numbers as much. But the police figures are subject to changes in recording practices. So when new offences are introduced that obviously changes how the count is put together, but also it’s impacted by police activity and how they record and that also will change the numbers. When you see increases in police recorded crime, for example, it doesn't necessarily mean that crime has gone up. And that's part of our work at ONS to unpick and understand what's going on there. But it does have benefits as you say, for some of the higher harm but lower volume crimes that we see, homicide it records very well, and for knife crime it's our best measure. So there's definitely a place for it as a data source still.    MF  So two major data sources contributing to this bigger picture. And what has that bigger picture been showing us these last few years?    ME  Well when we look across trends in general, actually, over time, crime has been decreasing since the mid 90s, and has been more flat in recent years. So the crime survey estimated around 20 million offences in 1995. And we've seen that decreasing over time and our latest data shows that it's around 5 million offences. And that's when you're using a comparable estimate. So the overall picture is very much if that crime sits much lower than it used to in the mid 90s. And that's not just a pattern that we've seen in England and Wales. It's a pattern that's reflected across other countries, across Europe and America. And it's something that lots of people have tried to understand what's really driven that long term change. More recently we have seen some decreases, some of them very much linked to the pandemic. But now as we look and compare before the pandemic to our most recent data, we have still seen some decreases. I think it's always important to point out that while total crime is a useful measure and reflection, it's only when you really start digging into the individual crime types that you can start seeing some trends that just get averaged out when you look at the total.    MF  Yes, you need to understand what kind of offences we're talking about. And if we talk about that long term picture, isn't it the case that we saw, coming out of the 1980s into the 1990s, turn of the century, violent crime decreasing, damage to property and so forth and theft from cars. Was that the broad trend that we saw?    ME  Yeah, so we've seen decreases in that time period across a number of crime types. One of the most popular explanations of the overall pattern there is the “security hypothesis”, which is very much built on the widespread improvements we've seen in security devices which have prevented crimes from happening and caused that decrease. So you mentioned there of vehicles, vehicle theft has decreased, most likely due to some things like improvements in central deadlocking systems and electric immobilisers, those security measures that have improved so much. But we have also seen decreases in violence across that time as well.     MF  Threat to property is one thing of course, but yes, personal safety and and our well-being on the streets, is of course a major factor as well. Talk us through the trends on that because if you rely entirely on the news media for your understanding of violent crime, you probably think that things are in a pretty desperate situation.    ME  So when we look back over that long term picture again, the estimate that we have from the crime survey for violence shows that there were around 4.5 million offences in 1995 And that compares to 1.2 million in the most recent data. Obviously, we've talked about the limitations to the crime survey data for understanding violence, but the more serious crimes within this type that we don't see in the crime survey are at much lower levels. They are lower volume, thankfully, and so we have seen some patterns there of variation during the pandemic.    MF  Another important development these last few years, of course, has been getting a much better understanding of the nature and extent of child abuse, an area of huge sensitivity and massive public concern. Can you talk a little about the work that's been going on in that area?    ME  So we've been conducting a feasibility study over the last few years to look at whether a measure of prevalence of child abuse could be estimated. A few years ago we put together a compendium of statistics on child abuse to help people understand the levels of child abuse and the nature of child abuse being experienced in our society. But the major gap in that evidence base is a prevalence level for what's being experienced now by children. We do in the crime survey for England and Wales ask people about the experiences they had as children. So we asked that of adults and that gives us some insight but it's still not helping policymakers understand what's actually happening in society today. So we've been conducting lots of research to understand the challenges, and how we might be able to overcome those of asking children such sensitive questions. And that work has been going really well, we're now at the stage of looking at what questions could actually be asked and the safeguarding that would need to wrap around that survey to look after the children completing it. So we're working very closely with DFE and Ofsted and schools to understand how that might best work going forward. So that's the next stage of that project.    MF  What has that experience and that engagement brought to this highly sensitive topic?    ME  We work very closely with the NSPCC, who have been extremely supportive of the project and how it's developing and helping us understand the safeguarding procedures that we might be able to use with a survey, and the support that we can give children and the different ways of doing that. There's a careful balance of helping children feel they are able to open up and tell us about experiences while also then safeguarding them and managing that challenge of confidentiality. And the NSPCC and others like them, obviously have great experience of being in this place and supporting children that we can then take on board to make sure that we do the survey in the best way possible.    MF  That's going to remain an important piece of work for the future. If there's one really important use of all this data, it is to understand the risks that any of us face of becoming the victim of crime at any given time. Billy, what are the numbers saying about that?    BILLY GAZARD  So I think it's quite a complicated picture. When we're talking about all the crime that the crime survey measures, for example, just under one in five people would have experienced a crime in the last 12 months according to the latest data, but obviously that varies across different crime types. So for example, fraud, about one in 12 people would have experienced fraud in the last 12 months, whereas offences such as violence, only about 2% of the population would have experienced a violent offence in the last 12 months.    MF  That overall is kind of reassuring, I guess, but nevertheless, those are significant sections of the population.    BG  Yes, I agree. That still translates into a lot of people experiencing that crime. So obviously, it's really important that we continue to monitor levels of violence moving forward to see how that changes over time.    MF  And if you break it down by geography, I guess of course, in some areas, those risks, particularly of violence and crimes against property are going to be much higher?    BG  This is looking at the national picture, but there will be variations at geographical levels, as well as by lots of different characteristics. For example, we know that younger people are at more risk of experiencing violence than older sections of the population.    MF  So that's the overall picture, but Meghan the risks might be rather different if you happen to be female.    MEGHAN ELKIN  There are some crime types that disproportionately affect women and girls compared to men and boys. Say for example, we estimate 1.6 million women aged 16 to 74 suffered domestic abuse in the last year and that one in three women over the age of 16 were subjected to at least one form of harassment in the last year. So there again, there is that variation in crime types that people are experiencing. And when we look at measures around domestic abuse, again, the crime survey for England and Wales is our most trusted measure. And as I reflected earlier, those are the crime types where we actually give respondents a tablet so that they can complete those questions confidentially. And actually, that posed us a particular challenge during the pandemic where our face-to-face interviewing had to stop and we moved to telephone interviews, and we managed to make that switch very quickly to be able to keep getting the crime estimates that were needed to understand society. But we did think there was a risk of asking people on the telephone those really sensitive questions about experiences of domestic abuse and sexual assault, but the concerns around confidentiality and respondent safeguarding were just too great for us to be able to ask those questions. So for a period of time, we weren't collecting that information when the survey returned to the field, though, we went back as early as we could so that we could start collecting those important topics again. And we now have the first data from those for domestic abuse since before the pandemic started. Now that we've started to get the face-to-face survey back into publication, some caution needs to be taken for interpreting those results. Because of how the surveys come back there are some challenges to quality and so again, we need to be a bit cautious in interpreting them, but it's so important that we've got those figures back. And actually what we see from the crime survey is that there's been no change in the prevalence of domestic abuse in the most recent data when compared to before the pandemic. But this is an opportunity to show how we use multiple data sources to really understand what might be going on in society and what people are experiencing. Because while the crime survey has now shown no change in the prevalence of domestic abuse, we have seen increases throughout that time in police recorded crime data. And we've also seen increases in data that we collect from charities. We work closely with a range of charities in the domestic abuse space to understand the changes that are happening to their services and the demand they're seeing, but also to help us understand the nature of abuse. So during lockdowns for example, we saw a 22% increase in calls to the National Domestic Abuse helpline for the year ending March 21, so there was definitely that increase in demand. But now combining that with the crime survey evidence that we haven't seen an increase in prevalence, actually that helps us understand that maybe that increase in demand from charities primarily came from a lack of other coping mechanisms and people reaching out in different ways to get the support they needed during that difficult time.    MF  And that would be seem to be a very valuable example of using other data sources than police recorded crime to get an accurate picture of what's going on, because of the simple reluctance that so many people have in reporting these experiences when they happen to them.    ME  Yes, that's true. I mean, the evidence we have is that one in five victims of partner abuse in the last year would have told the police, and that just shows how hidden these crime types are. And that's true when you look into sexual assault as well, where one in six tell us that they would have told the police about what happened to them. And that's an area where we haven't used charity data before to help us understand sexual assault, but it's something we're working on at the moment to be included in next year's publication.    MF  Are there other areas of offending where we could possibly get a better picture than we currently have at the moment?    ME  So harassment is also an area that in initial work on violence against women and girls, we found that actually there wasn't as much data as we thought there might be to help understand that situation. So we used some questions on the opinion survey last year to help us understand levels of harassment at a very basic level, for lack of a better description. But we've now introduced new questions on the crime survey as well to help us understand that topic. But again, I think that's going to be one where when that data becomes available to us to analyse we'll be able to start looking at other groups and organisations we'd like to work with to understand better that situation and support our efforts to make our statistics more inclusive. Working with stakeholders really helps us to look for these new data sources and new insights, to really understand the scale and nature of crime that people are experiencing.    MF  So Billy, just as the recording of crime evolves over time, so does what we consider to be a criminal offence. Tell us about the offences of the past, and what acts were regarded as criminal in their day and are no longer.    BILLY GAZARD  Yes I think it's important to remember that our laws are always changing to reflect the concerns of our society as it evolves. Something that was criminal hundreds of years ago might sound pretty absurd today. So for example, playing football used to be an offence in mediaeval times, there was punching the ball as well as kicking the ball and deaths were not uncommon.   MF  That's not a well-known fact!   BG  It actually became an offence in 1388 and wasn’t repealed until 1845.    MF  And were any people prosecuted? I think we know we know what the sentence was...    BG  The sentence for breaking this law was actually six days in prison. There are no stats on how many people were punished for breaking this law or how many people were put in prison for that. Another offence it seems absurd today, but we do have some stats on how many people actually were prosecuted for this is witchcraft. This actually became an offence in 1542 and it wasn't repealed until 1736 and during this time 500 witches were put on trial and over 100 of those were executed.    MF  Grisly stuff! History has moved on, and of course these days we're dealing with some very 21st century phenomenon, and that of course is the growth of online crime, cybercrime and and phishing scams. Tell us about the emergence of that type of offending. What has happened over the last few years and what is the position now?    BG  So what we've seen with fraud and computer misuse offences is very different to what we've seen with other types of offences. But unfortunately, we've only been starting to measure fraud and computer misuse offences on the crime survey since 2017. So we don't have the same long standing time series that we have for the other crime types, and this is obviously because a lot of online crime, this is a fairly new phenomenon, so we've taken our time to really develop those questions and now they are on the survey. What we have seen over the last five years since we started recording these offences is that those offences have stayed fairly flat over that time period. Over the pandemic however, we did see an increase in fraud and computer misuse offences during that period and we think that's probably to do with people spending more time at home and spending more time online. And what we did see in terms of fraud, we saw that the proportion of fraud incidents that were cyber related increased up to almost two thirds, from about 50% before the pandemic. So it suggests that actually, a lot of the rise in fraud offences that we did see were because of a rise in cyber related fraud rather than offline fraud.    MF  One popular conception is that it's mainly elderly people who are the targets of this online crime, but that's not actually the case is it?    BG  No. And definitely, when we look at our data, that's definitely not something that we're finding. Actually what we find is that adults aged 75 years or older are actually less likely to be victims of fraud. It's those in working age groups, adults aged 25 to 44 for example, who are more risk of receiving phishing messages, those employed and those living in less deprived areas are much more likely to receive those messages. And that might be to do with fraudsters targeting those groups because they know that they have more disposable money. So definitely older people are at less risk than the working population.    MF  So there is something in this argument perhaps that crime generally has moved online?    BG  I think there’s definitely an argument that a lot more crime is happening online, and we're definitely seeing that with fraud incidents. We have less data on other crime types, though obviously the internet and the act of being online can be used across many crime types. For example, harassment, stalking, these are other offenses that people can use online tools to commit. And that's something that we're always trying to improve on the crime survey, to introduce those types of questions so that we can get a better understanding of how online tools are being used to commit crimes.    MF  So online crime is a relatively recent development, but crime and offending of course, continues to develop unfortunately and go in different directions. Tell us about other developments that the ONS has got in hand. To try and either capture new types of offending or perhaps just get a better insight on more established patterns of crime and harm.    BG  In the Crime Survey for England and Wales (CSEW), we ask people living in private households lots of questions about their experiences with crime so we can produce an estimation of how much crime that group of people is experiencing. That's about 98% of the population of England and Wales. But what the survey doesn't cover is people who do not live in private households. This covers, for example, people living in residential care settings, or homeless people, students living in student halls. So although this is only about 2% of the population, these groups have very different experiences of crime. And it's really important that we also try and capture their experiences so that we can provide information for policymakers to take action on the crime that those groups are experiencing. One of the things that we're trying to do is produce a publication looking at crimes experienced by non-household populations as well. So we're currently doing some work investigating what other data sources are available that we can use to shine the light on it at ONS and share that information alongside what we do with household populations. So we're going to be going out talking to various stakeholders, talking to different data holders to see how can we work together to bring a picture of all the data that we have and better understand what the risks are for these groups in terms of experiencing crime and how can we bring all of that together.    MF  So as crime continues to evolve you can count on one thing, the ONS will continue to measure it, and explore it, and hopefully contribute to solving it.   Thanks very much to Meghan Elkin and Billy Gazard. I'm Miles Fletcher, and you've been listening to ‘Statistically Speaking’. You can subscribe to new episodes of the podcast on Spotify, Apple podcasts and all other major podcast platforms.   Our producers at the ONS are Steve Milne and Alisha Arthur.   Until next time, goodbye.
Trust in Data: The importance of ethics and privacy in producing statistics for the public good
22-08-2022
Trust in Data: The importance of ethics and privacy in producing statistics for the public good
In this episode Miles is joined by Professor Luciano Floridi of Oxford University; Simon Whitworth of the UK Statistics Authority; and Pete Stokes from the ONS to talk about data ethics and public trust in official statistics.   TRANSCRIPT   MILES FLETCHER    Hello, I'm Miles Fletcher, and in this episode of Statistically Speaking we're exploring data ethics and public trust in official statistics. In 2007, 15 years ago to the very day we are recording this, the UK Parliament gave the Office for National Statistics the objective of promoting and safeguarding the production and publication of official statistics that serve the public good. But what does, or should, the “public good” mean? How does the ONS seek to deliver it in practice? Why should the public trust us to act in their interests at a time of exponential growth in data of all kinds? Where are the lines to be drawn between individual privacy and anonymity on the one hand, the potential of data science to improve public services and government policies to achieve better health outcomes, even saving lives, on the other.   Joining me to discuss these topics today are Simon Whitworth, Head of Data Ethics at the UK statistics authority, Pete Stokes, Director of the Integrated Data programme here at the ONS and Luciano Floridi, professor of philosophy and the ethics of information and director of the digital ethics lab at the Oxford Internet Institute.   Professor let's start this big concept with you. What do you think Parliament meant when it said that the ONS should serve the public good in this context?     LUCIANO FLORIDI     It might have meant many things, and I suspect that a couple of them must have been in their minds. First of all, we know that data or information, depending on the vocabulary, has an enormous value if you know how to use it. And, collecting it and using it properly for the future of the country, to implement the right policies, to avoid potential mistakes and to see things in advance - knowledge is power, information is power. So, this might have been one of the things that they probably meant by “public good”. The other meaning, it might be a little bit more specific...It's when we use the data appropriately, ethically, to make sure that some sector or some part of the population is not left behind, to learn who needs more help, to know what help and when to deliver it, and to whom. So, it's not just a matter of the whole nation doing better, or at least avoiding problems, but also specific sectors of the population being helped, and to make sure that the burden and the advantages are equally distributed among everybody. That's normally what we mean by public good and certainly, that analysis is there to serve it.    MF    So there's that dilemma between using the power of data to actually achieve positive outcomes. And for government, on the other hand, being seen as overbearing, or Orwellian, and spying on people through the use of data.    LF    That would be the risk that sometimes comes under the term “paternalism”, that knowing a lot about your citizens might lead to the temptation of manipulating their lives, their choices, their preferences. I wouldn't over-emphasise this though. The kind of legislation that we have and the constraints, the rules, the double checking, make sure that the advantage is always in view and can more easily be squeezed out of the data that we accumulate, and sometimes the potential abuses and mistakes, the inevitable temptation to do the wrong thing, are kept in check. So yes, the State might use the government’s political power, might misuse data, and so we need to be careful, but I wouldn't list that as my primary worry. My primary worry perhaps, would be under-using the data that we have, or making mistakes inadvertently.    MF    Do you think then, perhaps as a country, the UK has been too cautious in this area in the past?    LF    I don't think it has been too cautious, either intellectually or strategically. There's been a lot of talking about doing the right thing. I think it's been slightly cautious, or insufficiently radical, in implementing policies that have been around for some time. But we now have seen several governments stating the importance of that analysis, statistical approaches to evidence, and so on. But I think that there is more ambition in words than in deeds, so I would like to see more implementations, more action and less statements. Then the ambition will be matched by the actions on the ground.    MF    One of the reasons perhaps there might have been caution in the past is of course concern about how the public would react to that use of data. What do we know of public attitudes now in 2022, to how government bodies utilise data?    LF    I think the impression is that, depending on whom you ask, whether it is the younger population or slightly older people my age, people who lived in the 50s versus my students, they have different attitudes. We're getting used to the fact that our data are going to be used. The question is no longer are they going to be used, but more like, how and who is using them? For what purposes? Am I in charge? Can I do something if something goes wrong? And I would add also, in terms of attitude, one particular feature which I don't see sufficiently stressed, is who is going to help me if something goes wrong? Because the whole discussion, or discourse, should look more at how we make people empowered, so that they can check, they have control, they can go do this, do that. Well, who has the time, the ability, the skills, and indeed the will, to do that? It's much easier to say, look, there will be someone, for example the government, who will protect your rights, who you can approach, and they will do the right thing for you. Now we're getting more used to that. And so, I believe that the attitude is slightly changing towards a more positive outlook, as long as everything is in place, we are seeing an increasingly positive attitude towards public use of public data.    MF    Pete, your role is to make this happen. In practice, to make sure that government bodies, including the ONS, are making ethical use of data and serving the public good. Just before we get into that though, explain if you would, what sort of data is being gathered now, and for what purposes?    PETE STOKES    So we've got a good track record of supporting research use of survey data, that we collect largely in ONS, but on other government departments as well. But over the last few years, there's been an acceleration and a real will to make use of data that have been collected for other purposes. We make a lot of use now of administrative data, these are data that are collected by government not for an analytical purpose but for an operational purpose. For example, data that are collected by HMRC from people when they're collecting tax, or from the Department of Work and Pensions when they're collecting benefits, or from local authorities when they're collecting council tax - all of those administrative data are collected and stored. There's an increasing case to make those data available for analysis which we're looking to support. And then the other new area is what's often called “faster data”, and these data that are typically readily available, usually in the public domain where you get a not so deep insight as you'd get from a survey of administrative data, but you could get a really quick answer. And a good example of that from within the ONS is that we calculate inflation. As a matter of routine, we collect prices from lots of organisations, but you can more quickly do some of that if you can pull some data that are readily available on the internet to give you those quicker indicators, faster information of where prices are rising quickly where they're dropping quickly. There's a place for all of these depending on the type of analysis that you want to do.    MF    This is another area where this ethical dilemma might arise though isn't it, because when you sit down with someone and they've agreed to take part in the survey, they know what they're going in for. But when it comes to other forms of information, perhaps tax information that you've mentioned already, some people might think, why do they want to know that?    PS    When people give their data to HMRC or to DWP as part of the process of receiving a service, like paying tax for example, I think people generally understand what they need to give that department for their specific purpose. When we then want to use this data for a different purpose, there is a larger onus on us to make sure that we are protecting those data, we're protecting the individual and that those data are only being used ethically and in areas of trust, specifically in the public interest. So, it's important that we absolutely protect the anonymity of the individuals, that we make sure where their data are used, and that we are not using the data of those data subjects as individuals, but instead as part of a large data-set to look for trends and patterns within those data. And finally, that the analysis that are then undertaken with them are explicitly and demonstrably in the public interest, that they serve the public good of all parts of society.    MF    And that's how you make the ethical side of this work in practice, by showing that it can be used to produce faster and more accurate statistics than we could possibly get from doing a sample survey?    PS    Yes, exactly, and sample surveys are very, very powerful when you want to know about a specific subject, but they're still relatively small. The largest sample survey that the ONS does is the Labour Force Survey, which collects data from around 90,000 people every quarter. Administrative datasets have got data from millions of people, which enables you to draw your insights not just at a national level and national patterns, but if you want to do some analysis on smaller geographic areas, administrative data gives you the power to do that when surveys simply don't. But, any and all use of data must go through a strict governance process to ensure that the confidentiality of the data subjects be preserved. And not only will the use be clearly and demonstrably in the public interest, but also, will be ethically sound and will stand up to scrutiny in that way as well.     MF    And who gets to see this stuff?    PS    The data are seen by the accredited researchers that apply to use it. So, a researcher applies to use the data, they're accredited, and they demonstrate their research competence and their trustworthiness. They can use those data in a secure lockdown environment, and they do their analysis. When they complete their analysis, those can then be published. Everybody in the country can see the results of those analyses. If you've taken part in a social survey, or you've contributed some data to one of the administrative sources that we make available, you can then see all the results of all the analysis that are done with those data.    MF    But when you say its data, this is where the whole process of anonymization is important, isn't it? Because if I'm an accredited researcher selling it to see names and addresses, or people's personal, sensitive personal information.    PS    No, absolutely not. And the researchers only get to see the data that they need for their analysis. And because we have this principle, that the data are being used as an aggregated dataset, you don't need to see people's names or people's addresses. You need to know where people live geographically, in a small or broad area, but not the specific address. You need to know someone's demographic characteristics, but you don't need to know their name, so you can't see their name in the data. And that principle of pseudonymisation, or the de-identification of data, before their used is really important. When the analyses are completed and the outputs are produced, those are then reviewed by an expert team at ONS, and so the data are managed by us to ensure that they are fully protected, wholly non-disclosive, and that it's impossible to identify a member of the public from the published outputs.    MF    Historically, government departments didn't have perhaps the best record in sharing data around other bodies for the public benefit in this way. But all that changed, didn't it? A few years back with a new piece of legislation which liberalised, to an extent, what the ONS is able to do.    PS    So, the Digital Economy Act, passed in 2017, effectively put on a standard footing the ability of other departments to make their data available for researchers in the same way that ONS had already been able to do since the 2007 System Registration Service Act. It gave us parity, which then gave other departments the ability to make their data available and allow us to help them to do so, to take the expertise that the ONS has in terms of managing these data securely, managing access to them appropriately, accrediting the researchers, checking all the outputs and so on, to give the benefit of our expertise to the rest of government. In order that the data that they hold, that has previously been underutilised arguably, could then be fully used for analyses to develop policies or deliver services, to improve understanding of the population or cohorts of the population or geographic areas of the country, or even sectors of industry or segments of businesses, for example, in a way that hasn't previously been possible, and clearly benefits the country overall.    MF    So the aim here is to make full use of a previously untapped reservoir, a vast reservoir, an ocean you might even say, of public data. But who decides what data gets brought in in this way?    PS    We work closely with the departments that control the data, but ultimately, those departments decide what use can be made of their data. So, it is for HMRC, DWP, the Department for Education, it’s for them to decide which data they choose to make available through the Secure Research Service (SRS) or the Integrated Data Service (IDS) that we run in ONS. When they're supportive and recognise the analytical value of their data, we then manage the service where researchers apply to use those data. Those applications are then assessed by ONS first and foremost, we then discuss those requests and the use cases with the data owning departments and say, do you agree this would be a sensible use of your data?     MF    Is there an independent accreditation panel that reports to the UK statistics Authority Board, that assesses the request to use the data is in the public interest, that it serves the public good?    PS    The ethics of the proposal are also assessed by an independent ethics advisory committee, whether it's the national statistician's data ethics advisory committee or another. There's a lot of people involved in the process to make sure that any and every use of data is in the public interest.     MF    From what we know from the evidence available, certainly according to the latest public confidence and official statistics survey - that's a big biannual survey run by the UK Statistics Authority (UKSA) - I guess for that, and other reasons, public trust remains high. The Survey said 89% of people that gave a view trusted ONS, and 90% agreed that personal information provided to us would be kept confidential. But is there a chance that we could lose some of that trust now, given that there is much greater use, and much greater sharing, of admin data? It should be said that it doesn't give people the chance to opt out.    PS    I think one of the reasons that trust has remained high is because of the robust controls we have around the use of data. Because of the comprehensive set of controls and the framework that we put around use of data that protects confidentiality, that ensures that all uses are in the public interest. And another important component of it is that all use of data that we support is transparent by default. So, any analyst wanting to use data that are held by ONS, or from another department that we support, we publish the details of who those analysts are, which data they're using, what they're using them for, and then we require them to publish the outputs as well. And that transparency helps maintain public trust because if someone wants to know what their data is being used for, they can go to our website or directly to the analyst, and they can see the results tangibly for themselves. Now, they might not always agree that every use case is explicitly in the public interest, but they can see the thought process. They can see how the independent panel has reached that conclusion, and that helps us to retain the trust. There's a second half of your question around whether there is a risk of that changing. There is always a risk but we are very alive to that, which is why as we built the Integrated Data Service, and we look to make more and more government data available, that we don't take for granted the trust we've already got, and that we continue to work with the public, and with privacy groups, to make sure that as we build the new service and make more data available, we don't cross a line inadvertently, and we don't allow data to be used in a way that isn't publicly acceptable. We don't allow data to be combined in a way that would stretch that comfort. And this is that kind of proactive approach that we're trying to take, that we believe will help us retain public trust, despite making more and more data available.     MF     Professor Floridi, we gave you those survey results there, with people apparently having confidence in the system as it stands, but I guess it just takes a couple of negative episodes to change sentiment rapidly. What examples have we seen of that, and how have institutions responded?    LF    I think the typical examples are when data are lost, for example, inadvertently because of a breach and there is nobody at fault, but maybe someone introduced the wrong piece of software. It could be a USB, someone may be disgruntled, or someone else has found a way of entering the database - then the public gets very concerned immediately. The other case is when there is the impression, which I think is largely unjustified, but the impression remains, that the data in question are being used unjustly to favour maybe some businesses, or perhaps support some policies rather than others. And I agree with you, unfortunately, as in all cases, reputation is something very hard to build and can be easily lost. It's a bit unfair, but as always in life, building is very difficult but breaking down and destroying is very easy. I think that one important point here to consider is that there is a bit of a record as we move through the years. The work that we're talking about, as we heard, 2017 is only a few years ago, but as we build confidence and a good historical record, mistakes will happen, but they will be viewed as mistakes. In other words, there will be glitches and there will be forgiveness from the public built into the mechanism, because after say 10 or 15 years of good service, if something were to go wrong once or twice, I think the public will be able to understand that yes, things may go wrong, but they will go better next time and the problem will be repaired. So, I would like to see this fragility if you like, this brittle nature of trust, being counterbalanced by a reinforced sense of long-term good service that you know delivers, and delivers more and more and better and better, well then you can also build a little bit of tolerance for the occasional mistakes that are inevitable, as in everything human, they will occur once or twice.    MF    Okay, well, touching my mic for what would in effect be my desk, I can say that I don't think ONS has had an episode such as you describe, but of course, that all depends on the system holding up. And that seems a good point to bring in Simon Whitworth from the UK Statistics Authority, as kind of the overseeing body of all this.  Simon, how does the authority go about its work? One comment you see quite commonly on social media when these topics are discussed, is while I might trust the body I give my data to, I don't trust them not to go off and sell it, and there have been episodes of data being sold off in that way. I think it's important to state isn't it, that the ONS certainly never sells data for private gain. But if you could talk about some of the other safeguards that the authority seeks to build into the system.     SIMON WHITWORTH    The big one is around the ethical use of data. The authority, and Pete referred to this, previously back in 2017, established something called the National Statisticians Data Ethics Advisory Committee, and that's an independent committee of experts in research, ethics and data law. And we take uses of data to that committee for their independent consideration. And what's more, we're transparent about the advice that that committee provides. So, what we have done, what we've made publicly available, is a number of ethical principles which guide our work. And that committee provide independent guidance on a particular use of data, be they linking administrative data, doing new surveys, using survey data, whatever they may be, they consider projects from across this statistical system against those ethical principles and provide independent advice and guidance to ensure that we keep within those ethical principles. So that's one thing we do, but there's also a big programme of work that comes from something that we've set up called the UK Statistics Authority Centre for Applied Data Ethics, and what that centre is trying to do is to really empower analysts and data users to do that work in ethically appropriate ways, to do their work in ways that are consistent with those ethical principles. And that centres around trying to promote a culture of ethics by design, throughout the lifecycle of different uses of data, be they the collection of data or the uses of administrative data. We've provided lots of guidance pieces recently, which are available on our website, around particular uses of data - geospatial data, uses of machine learning - we've provided guidance on public good, and we're providing training to support all of those guidance pieces. And the aim there is, as I say, to empower analysts from across the analytical system, to be able to think about ethics in their work and identify ethical risks and then mitigate those ethical risks.     MF    You mentioned the Ethics Committee, which is probably not a well-known body, independent experts though you say, these are not civil servants. These are academics and experts in the field. Typically, when do they caution researchers and statisticians, when do they send people back to think again, typically?     SW    It's not so much around what people do, it's about making sure how we do it is in line with those ethical principles. So, for example, they may want better articulations of the public good and consideration of potential harms. Public good for one section of society might equal public harm to another section of society. It's very often navigating that and asking for consideration of what can be done to mitigate those potential public harms and therefore increase the public good of a piece of research. The other thing I would say is being transparent. Peter alluded to this earlier, being transparent around data usage and taking on board wherever possible, the views of the public throughout the research process. Encouraging researchers as they're developing the research, speaking to the public about what they're doing, being clear and being transparent about that and taking on board feedback that they receive from the public whose data they're using. I would say that they're the two biggest areas where an estate provides comments and really useful and valuable feedback to the analytical community.     MF    Everyone can go online and see the work of the committee, to get the papers and minutes and so forth. And this is all happening openly and in a comfortable way?    SW    Yes, absolutely. We publish minutes of the meetings and outcomes from those meetings on the UK Statistics Authority’s website. We also make a range of presentations over the course of the year around the work of the committee and the supporting infrastructure that supports the work because we have developed a self-assessment tool which allows analysts at the research design phase to consider those ethical principles, and different components of the ethical principles, against what they're trying to do. And that's proved to be extremely popular as a useful framework to enable analysts to think through some of these issues, and I suppose move ethics from theory to something a bit more applied. In terms of their work last year, over 300 projects from across the analytical community, both within government and academia, used that ethics self-assessment tool, and the guidance and training that sits behind it is again available on our website.    MF    I'm conscious of sounding just a little bit sceptical, and putting you through your paces to explain how the accountability and ethical oversight works, but can you think of some examples where there's been ethical scrutiny, and research outcomes having satisfied that process, have gone on to produce some really valuable benefits?    SW    ONS has done a number of surveys with victims of child sex abuse to inform various inquiries and various government policies. They have some very sensitive ethical issues that require real thinking about and careful handling. You know, the benefits of that research has been hugely important in showing the extent of child sex abuse that perhaps previously was unreported and providing statistics to both policymakers and charities around experiences of child sex abuse. In terms of administrative data, yes, there are numerous big data linkage projects that have come to ONS and have been considered by ONS, in particular, linkage surveys that follow people over time. Linkages done over time provide tremendous analytical value, but of course need some careful handling to ensure that access to that data is provided in an ethically appropriate way, and that we're being transparent. So those are the two I think of, big things we are thinking about in an ethically appropriate way. And being able to do them in an ethically appropriate way has really allowed us to unleash the analytical value of those particular methods, but in a way that takes the public with us and generates that public trust.    MF    Pete, you are part of the organisation that in fact runs an award scheme to recognise some of the outstanding examples of the secure use of data?    PS    We do, and it's another part of promoting the public benefit that comes from use of data. Every year we invite the analysts who use the Secure Research Service (SRS), or other similar services around the country, to put themselves forward for research excellence awards. So that we can genuinely showcase the best projects from
Labour & Wages: The tracking of employment and pay across the UK
26-07-2022
Labour & Wages: The tracking of employment and pay across the UK
David Freeman and Nicola White join Miles to discuss how the Office for National Statistics (ONS) tracks employment and pay across the UK.   Transcript: Hello and welcome again to Statistically Speaking, the Office for National Statistics podcast. In this episode, we enter the world of work and clock on for a shift with the ONS labour market team. We'll explore how they keep track of employment and pay across the UK and find out how the figures we hear so much about in the news should really be interpreted. At your service, are employees of the month, our head of labour market and household statistics David Freeman, and later on his colleague, senior statistician Nicola White.   David, let's start with the basics. And one common misconception you still hear around the official statistics on unemployment is that they're based on the number of people claiming out of work benefits. And so, the theory goes therefore, that they're subject to manipulation in some way. But to be absolutely clear, the figures don't come from any other government department. This is data that comes from the ONS talking directly to real people, in their tens of thousands.    DAVID FREEMAN  That's absolutely right, Miles. The bulk of the information that we publish as part of our labour market statistics come from something called the ‘Labour Force Survey’. As this is one of our big household surveys, every three months we sample 40,000 households across the UK. And we go and we interview the people in those households about their labour market status. So, are they working, are they not working. We also gather a lot of information about the people in those households, what age they are, whether they have got a disability, what ethnic group [they belong to], which gives a us rich picture of the UK labour market.    MILES FLETCHER  And by the standards of any survey, any regular survey, that's a huge sample isn’t it. I know we don't go in for superlatives, but it's possibly the biggest household survey regularly undertaken of any kind?    DAVID FREEMAN  I think it is the biggest one in the UK, outside of the Census of course, and again, through the data that we use, we’ll learn about the labour market, but the data will also feed into things like population estimates. So quite a wide range of uses, but its core purpose is really trying to measure the UK labour market.    MILES FLETCHER  And it's that time spent with people to gather a whole raft of data from them, and at scale, that can give a localised picture, which is so important too.    DAVID FREEMAN  Absolutely, we get a lot of information from the Labour Force Survey, either by age groups, by country of birth, also by regional level, and we have an annual version of the Labour Force Survey where we put the data together across a longer time period, which means we can get data down to things like local authority levels as well which is important for local government.    MILES FLETCHER  And how do we choose people to take part?    DAVID FREEMAN   It’s a totally random process. So we have access to the postcode directory for the UK, which is effectively a list of all the households in the UK, and we take a random sample of those. However, we make sure within taking that sample that we're represented across the country. So within each local authority area, we've got enough people to be able to give us a robust estimate of what's happening there.   MILES FLETCHER  You stay in the survey a little while, don’t you?  DAVID FREEMAN  You do, that's right, and that's one of the strengths of the Labour Force Survey. If you're selected to take part, you are in there for what we call “five waves”. So if you're selected in January, we'll also come back and talk to you again in April, July, October and the following January. And that's important because not only do we find out what people are doing now, as you say we find out how people have changed, and whether they have moved into employment, out of employment, how have their circumstances changed. And that gives a deep insight into how people are flowing through the labour market and changing over time.    MILES FLETCHER  So, big sample, lots of data coming in. When it comes to the analysis though, essentially, we group people under three big categories. Now the first of those is employment. It sounds self-evident, but what is the definition of an employed person?    DAVID FREEMAN  To be employed is to be someone who has done paid work in the reference week, so when we interview people we’ll say, what were you doing in the week before we're interviewing you? They are considered employed if they have done paid work for a minimum of one hour in that week. So the bar is, you could say it’s quite low, in terms of one hour of work a week. But we have looked, and not that many people work that little in a week – less than 3% of people work less than five hours. So, as well as you'll get paid, we have a couple of other areas as well. We cover people who are employees, so employed by a company, the self-employed, people in government training schemes and people who work for their family business and might not get a wage packet but benefit from working for that business.    MILES FLETCHER  What is the average number of hours that employed people do?    DAVID FREEMAN   Overall, the average is around about 31 hours a week, and that does differ between if you're full time or part-time. So if you're full time, then the average is around 36. If you're part time, the average is around 16 hours a week.    MILES FLETCHER  Okay, so that's a working week. Now who is unemployed? Technically speaking.    DAVID FREEMAN  The technical definition of unemployed, there are three elements to it. Firstly, you've got to be not employed, so not doing any paid work. But you must also be actively seeking work in the previous four weeks. So that means applying for jobs, going to interviews, looking through listings, etc. And finally, you must be available to start work in the next two weeks. So you have got to be available to start a job within the next fortnight after we interview you. Again, another international definition used across the world to define who's unemployed.    MILES FLETCHER  And how long do you have to be unemployed to be classed as long-term unemployed? Because that's a very important category to understand as well.    DAVID FREEMAN  To be considered long-term unemployed, a person must have been in that position for a year or more.    MILES FLETCHER  What's the average time that people are currently spending unemployed?    DAVID FREEMAN  It's a bit hard to say, we don’t have a technical age or an average time, but the majority of people who are unemployed have been unemployed for less than six months. So people moving into unemployment after having recently lost a job or moving through unemployment to get to a job. And it's just under 1 in 3, who have been unemployed for more than a year.    MILES FLETCHER  So if you don't satisfy any of those two definitions. You're not doing any kind of paid work and you're not actively seeking it in the way you've described, where does that leave you?    DAVID FREEMAN  Well, that leaves you in a third group that we call the “economically inactive”. And so these people are not in work, and are either not actively seeking work, or are unavailable to start work. So you can be looking for work and not available, and you'd be economically inactive, or you might be available and not looking, and again, you'd be economically inactive there. And the sort of people included in this category are the sort of people who may be looking after family or home, they are stay-at-home parents, or they have caring responsibilities that mean they can't work. They might have a long-term illness or disability which means they are not able to work, or they may have retired. It's the people who aren't working and are not looking or available for work.    MILES FLETCHER  One contentious area under this definition of the economically inactive is a group that swells and contracts according to the economic cycle, and it’s that group of people who are unable to work and are collecting benefits. What do we understand about that group at the moment?    DAVID FREEMAN  That group as you say, it does change over time. And the reason for that is because people on benefits depend on the rules around those benefits. So, over the years we have published something we call the “claimant count”. This counts people claiming benefits and the main reason they're claiming benefits is because they're out of work.   MILES FLETCHER  And that used to be the main measure of our unemployment, as it was understood.    DAVID FREEMAN  You’re absolutely right. If we go back to the early mid 90s, it was a lead measure. But at that point the rules around the benefits were such that the official unemployment count and the benefit count was about the same. However, when we moved to Jobseeker's Allowance in the late 90s, the rules changed on benefits. So fewer unemployed qualified for the benefits, and the two measures did diverge there.    MILES FLETCHER  It's been said that there's a very large group now who are on out of work benefits alone, and that is hidden unemployment?     DAVID FREEMAN  Some of these people will be unemployed if they're out of work, and actively seeking or available to work. However, out of work benefits will also include people who we would class as economically inactive. Such as people who have a long-term illness or disability that prevents them from working. They'll be getting out of work benefits because they're not working, but because they're not able to look for work, or not actively looking for work, we wouldn't count them in our unemployment statistics. So yes, there are a lot of people on out of work benefits, more than we would count as unemployed. But not all these people would fit that definition of unemployed that we use.    MILES FLETCHER  But nonetheless a very important indicator when you're thinking about how people might be helped into work.    DAVID FREEMAN  That's right. Yeah, and and it indicates what that potential workforce could be. But obviously, some of these people may need some help to get themselves into a position where they're able to look for work and gain employment.    MILES FLATCHER  Okay, well what that briefly explained, is how the headline measures - you might like to call them your classic ONS measure of employment and unemployment - work. But one criticism that you might care to make about this system is that it takes a while to process and the numbers when they come out...there's a bit of a lag isn’t there.    DAVID FREEMAN  There is a little bit of a lag, again because of the size of the sample, the amount of data we have to process and the fact that we have to make sure we're getting enough responses in. There’s about a six-week lag between the end of the period we're looking at and the data being published into the public domain.    MILES FLATCHER  So in order to speed things up a bit, and to have a timelier indicator of what was happening with employment, and this came in very useful with the arrival of the pandemic, we've been using faster sources of information to supplement the headline employment figures. Can you talk us through that? What progress has been made and how useful these other sources of data have been?    DAVID FREEMAN  Yeah, so probably the biggest one that we've been using throughout the pandemic has been the counting of people for the real time tax information from the Revenue and Customs department. So this is a big database that HMRC hold, and it contains information about everyone on a payroll. So if you are on a pay as you earn scheme, all your information is collated in HMRC for the purposes of calculating your tax. At the end of 2019, we started working with HMRC on publishing regular data from that system. I counted the number of people on payroll schemes and how much they're earning. The benefits of this are that it is a complete count of people on the pay as you earn scheme, so it gives us lots of information, meaning we can analyse smaller levels and small groups of people without impacting on the confidentiality of the data. When the pandemic started, we worked with HMRC to see if we could speed the data up, because previously it was at the same sort of pace as the Labour Force Survey, so about six weeks, and we managed to move to what we call a flash estimate. This means we can publish the data for a particular month within three weeks of the end of that month, which is so much faster and was a real benefit at the beginning of the pandemic. Getting information quickly about what was happening to employees on tax schemes.    MILES FLETCHER  And that was vital wasn't it, to inform the policy response to the pandemic when it arrived. Because you know, waiting a few weeks could have been too late for a lot of people.    DAVID FREEMAN  It could have been, and this is a big step forward in using this local administrative data in the labour market, and we've carried on doing that flash estimate. And as well as that we've been, over the pandemic period and up to the present day, adding more and more information from the pay as you earn tax data. So, a company produces data for a local authority level, we also do it by regional and industry. So, lots of information much more quickly than we can get it from our survey data.    MILES FLETCHER  You could say we've got the best of both worlds now. We've got the rich data coming out of the Labour Force Survey. But on the other hand, we've also got the much quicker data coming hot off the systems of HMRC to give that flash picture as you described it.    DAVID FREEMAN  One of the things that has been very developed over the pandemic is having this extra data and it provides a very, very rich picture. And when you put it together, you do get a very, very good picture of what's happening in the economy. I mean, the next step is to try and actually bring these data sources together. So linking data from the tax system to survey data, and trying to exploit even more, the benefits of having these sorts of information available.    MILES FLETCHER  Do you think we'll get to the point where we replace the survey completely? Or will it continue to have that very important central role?    DAVID FREEMAN  I think surveys will always have a central role. The tax data is brilliant. It does only cover employees, so we don't we don't cover the self-employed, you don't cover government trainees or people working for their family business. Also, the level of information we get from the Labour Force Survey is much bigger than we get from administrative data. On the tax system, we merely have information that's relevant to people paying tax. So that means we don't get a lot of the information that we get from labour force surveys - whether someone's got a disability, what their ethnic group is, what their nationality is - and these are all important variables in terms of informing government policy and giving a picture of what's happening in the UK.    MILES FLETCHER  You mentioned that the tax data was a development that was already in progress before the pandemic, but it was sped up given the urgency of that situation, but other sources of data have been coming in as well?    DAVID FREEMAN  Another big source of data that we've been working with over the pandemic period has been the online job vacancies data from a company called Azuna, who we've been partnering with over the period. And this has been another big step forward in calculating the number of vacancies in the UK economy. The data we are getting is really really timely, so we can take a download of data on the Friday, and we’re publishing it the next week. So really timely. And, the information you're getting in an online job vacancy means we can look at things like where the vacancy is, so what geography it’s located in, and some indication of the skills or the occupation of that vacancy as well.  MILES FLETCHER  Obviously, if you think about impacts of the pandemic for quite a period, over the last two years, when you add it all up, we spent a lot of time chained to our laptops, in many cases, working from home. How has that rubbed off on the workforce now, and what do we think is the lasting impact of the working from home trend?    DAVID FREEMAN  Certainly, on the latest data we've got, it does look like there's been a bit of a shift in terms of the number of people who work at home on a regular basis. Prior to the pandemic, fewer than three in 10 people had ever worked from home at any point, whereas if you look at the most recent data, around 35% of people are working from home regularly. So that 1 in 3 people are now doing some work at home during the working week.    MILES FLETCHER  So that's a huge change and we reckon that is, to some extent, showing signs of lasting?    DAVID FREEMAN  It does look like it is lasting. Home working doesn't necessarily work for everyone. When we did the analysis, there's quite a few professions or occupations where homework is relatively low. That’s particularly in the caring occupations, retail, catering and construction, where it's hard, or if not impossible, to work from home.    MILES FLETCHER  We'll have to see how that develops over the months ahead. But another phenomenon that was spotted as we emerged from the pandemic was what's been called ‘The Great Resignation’. Over 50s apparently disengaging with the labour market, and that I guess, is them going from employment in large numbers into the ‘economically inactive’ category? What do we know about that?    DAVID FREEMAN  You're absolutely right. This is something we've seen particularly in the last 12 months, people over 50 are moving out of the labour market into economic inactivity. Some of these people are retiring, so particularly the over 60s, most of those people are retiring. However, for the people aged 50 to 59, a lot of them are retiring for health reasons. They've developed a long-term illness, which again may be related to COVID, which is preventing them from carrying on with work. And this is having an impact on the overall labour market because the employment rate is still lagging behind where we were pre-pandemic, and a lot of that is down to these people moving outside into economic inactivity.    MILES FLETCHER  That's an important factor because other ONS statistics tell us that there were some 800,000 people who report, or we estimate, are suffering the effects of long COVID. So that would be a big factor in this, one might think, and it really isn't a question then of people having had a taste of being at home all the time and thinking, “Oh I just don't want to go back to work. Let's call it a day now”.    DAVID FREEMAN  You're right. So the older people aged 60+, again, particularly people who have got a private pension and won’t rely on the state pension, it is that retirement. But say for those 50-59s, while some of them are retiring early, there are people who believe themselves too ill to work    MILES FLETCHER  And what do we understand then from our lifestyle survey? About how people's patterns of leisure and work have changed?    DAVID FREEMAN  There are a few things to think about again, will the people who have moved out of the workforce want to go back into the workforce. Looking at those over 60, only about 18% of those want to go back and will consider returning to work. Whereas those in their 50s, just over half would consider returning to work, but looking for a job that suits their skills and would suit their lifestyle. So, people wanting more flexible work and something that will fit around their caring responsibilities as well.    MILES FLETCHER  So overall, how do we think the UK did in terms of dealing with a pandemic? And particularly its impact on the labour market compared with other countries? Did they see these kind of impacts as well?    DAVID FREEMAN  It's quite interesting when you look at the impact of the pandemic across different countries. In terms of the UK, we have a very similar pattern to the rest of Europe. We saw a drop off in employment rate at the start of the pandemic and then gradual increases. But that drop off in employment was about 2 to 3% of the employment rate, and that's in stark contrast to the USA and Canada where the pandemic impact was much greater in terms of falling employment - about nine to 10 percentage points of the employment rate. Moving onto inactivity, what seems to be the difference is the coronavirus job retention scheme in the UK, and similar schemes across Europe, kept people linked to their job and in employment, rather than moving into unemployment. Unemployment remains, again in the UK and across Europe, relatively low. But all countries, including the USA and in Europe as well, saw an increase in the level of inactivity during the pandemic.    MILES FLETCHER  So overall the UK not too exceptional really, in how governments responded to the impacts of a pandemic, and how those effects played out on the labour force.    DAVID FREEMAN  Not very different at all at the beginning of the pandemic. We're seeing a little bit of a difference now, and we touched on it earlier in terms of economic inactivity, is that the UK employment rate is still a bit below where it was pre pandemic, whereas the EU and USA and Canada, they've got back to about where they were at the beginning of 2020. This links to the over 50s moving out of the workforce. We're still a little bit behind other European countries at the moment.    MILES FLETCHER  And explains perhaps why the over 50s are the subject of particular research, extra research going on now to understand what's really going on there.    DAVID FREEMAN  Yeah, absolutely. Because that does seem to be the difference between us and the rest of Europe.    MILES FLETCHER  Okay, well I mentioned earlier on, the richness of the data that we get from the Labour Force Survey, and when you delve into the data, you get to explore some quite interesting topics. And one of them we uncovered the other day was that even in 2022, there are still some jobs that are dominated by one gender. Tell us about that.    DAVID FREEMAN  Yeah, so this is a really interesting thing. We do put out regular data, where we go right into the detail of some of the occupations. And it is interesting when you look at the sort of gender split in some of these jobs. So, there are a few jobs where we have hardly any women at all doing them, so that includes ship officers and metal workers, and at the other end of the spectrum, we've got very few men who say they are dancers or choreographers.    MILES FLETCHER  You might be less surprised to hear that pipelayers tend to be all male, but also veterinary nurses are almost exclusively female.    DAVID FREEMAN  That's right. And again, if you look at other occupations, that are predominantly female, they are things like midwives, school secretaries, PA’s and secretaries, child minders, nursery nurses and medical secretaries. And then if you go to the occupations that are predominantly male, they’re very much in the construction space, so carpenters, bricklayers, electricians and plumbers.     MILES FLETCHER  How do we classify people into jobs? We don't just listen to how people describe themselves. You have to fit into some classification, don't you? How does that work?    DAVID FREEMAN  Well, we have got a classification, it's called a ‘standard occupational classification’, and that gets updated regularly. The latest version was updated in 2020. And the way we classify people, when we do the interviews as part of the Labour Force Survey, we ask them what their occupation is. And then we take that description, and we match it onto our list of occupations. There are hundreds of potential occupations. We've got a computer programme that helps when you put the description in, it'll narrow it down to a few options, and then the interviewer can pick the most suitable of those options to match what the person has told us.    MILES FLETCHER  And that makes the figures internationally comparable. Again, you can't tell the Labour Force Survey, well, I'm an image consultant. They'd have to find a way of matching that against one of the definitions, and I see we were asked the other day whether ‘Social Media Influencer’ was a classified job, it turns out it isn’t. They're either marketing associates, or actors and presenters, it turns out. These classifications, they're reviewed every 10 years or so aren't they, perhaps the next update will recognise a job like that.    DAVID FREEMAN  If it grows in terms of importance and the number of people doing it, it's quite likely it could end up with a classification. I mean, the latest update started including programmers as a separate job description. They were lumped in with other things in earlier classifications, again because of a growing occupation.    MILES FLETCHER  It's quite a good test this. If your mum asks you if you've got a proper job yet. If you can point to the standard occupational classification, I think that that'll answer the question for her quite satisfactory wouldn't it. By the way, recent additions are coffee shop workers, not surprisingly, given the huge growth in coffee serving establishments, what other ones have been officially designated recently?    DAVID FREEMAN  Lots of jobs linked around the internet and web development and website development as well. You go back 15 or 20 years and it didn't even exist. And things like ‘Play Workers’ as well, with the use of child minding and child play facilities, they’re also new additions to the list.    MILES FLETCHER  So, working in the gig economy, you know, the hours might be irregular, you might be on a zero hours contract, but nevertheless, chances are you're your job is officially recognised.    DAVID FREEMAN  Almost certainly, even if your job may not have an official designation, you would still be fitting into the framework somewhere.    MILES FLETCHER  And it might be worth noting since we're sitting in the ONS, that data analysts have only been recently recognised as an official classified occupation.  Well, just as important as finding out what people do is the whole question of how much they get for doing it. And who better to talk to about that than our Head of Earnings at the ONS Nicola White, how does the ONS find out what's on people's salary cheques every month.     NICOLA WHITE  We use several surveys to estimate wages. So, one is a monthly survey, which gives us the latest picture of what's happening, and the other is once a year, and this allows us to measure not only weekly earnings but also annual earnings, hourly earnings and it enables us to also look at detailed characteristics such as age, sex, region and occupation. It's a much richer data source.    MILES FLETCHER  Again, this is a big national level, thousands and thousands of people.    NICOLA WHITE  For the monthly survey, we ask to provide us with the number of employees in their business, and then what they're paying out in wages that month, and then we just calculate the average weekly earnings. The annual survey is slightly different. It's filled in again by businesses, but we ask for a selection of employees so that we can collect the additional data that we require.    MILES FLETCHER  So, we're not just trusting people to come clean about how much they're earning because I wonder if people might be concerned about what the tax authority might say.    NICOLA WHITE  As we collect this from businesses, we think the quality of the data might be much better than giving the individual data.  MILES FLETCHER  For statistical purposes, what is the average wage in the UK?  NICOLA WHITE  So, the average weekly earnings for all employees at the moment is around 565 pounds a week. Then if we include bonuses into this, it increases it to around 600 pounds a week.  MILES FLETCHER  And what’s been the trend recently?  NICOLA WHITE
A Matter of Life & Death: The impact of declining fertility rates; the re-birth of a dataset buried for 50 years; and why you should call your baby Nigel.
20-06-2022
A Matter of Life & Death: The impact of declining fertility rates; the re-birth of a dataset buried for 50 years; and why you should call your baby Nigel.
In this episode Miles is joined by Dr James Tucker and Sarah Caul MBE to talk about how and why the Office for National Statistics count births and deaths, and what current fertility trends might mean for the future population. They look at the impact of popular culture on the most common baby names in England and Wales, and discuss the new significance of a dataset that was itself buried for 50 years.   Transcript:   MILES FLETCHER   I’m Miles Fletcher and this episode of ‘Statistically Speaking’, the official ONS podcast, is literally a matter of life and death. Specifically how and why we count births and deaths and what those numbers are telling us. We'll talk about the possible impacts of declining fertility rates in the UK and of children being born to older parents. And at the other end of life we'll look at the new significance of a dataset that was itself almost buried for 50 years I'm joined here at ONS by two people who lead on all our data around births and deaths - Head of Analysis in our health and life events teams, James Tucker, and our very own Head of Mortality, Sarah Caul MBE, honoured for her work during the pandemic about which we will talk later.   Starting with you then James, at the beginning as it were, with births - how does the ONS gather information about the number of children being born in England and Wales week in, week out?    JAMES TUCKER  So the registration of births is a service that's carried out by local registration services in partnership with the general register office in England and Wales and the good thing about this, from the perspective of having a really nice complete dataset, is that birth registrations are actually a legal requirement, giving us a really comprehensive picture of births in the countries.    MF  So we gather the numbers, we add them up, what do we do with the information then?    JT  So there's a couple of ways that we look at the data. One is to simply look at the number of births per year. So for example, we're looking at about 600,000 births per year at the moment. But an alternative approach is to use what we call the ‘total fertility’ rate, which is basically the average number of live children that women might expect to have during their childbearing lifespan. So it's a better measure than simply looking at the trends in the number of births because it accounts for changes in the size and age structure of the population.    MF  So it has a sort of multi-dimensional value then statistically that you can use to infer various things about the age at which people are likely to have children, and how many they're likely to have.    JT  That's exactly right. So we've seen some changes in the total fertility rate in recent years. So if you've heard the expression 2.4 children as describing the average number of children per family it's now considerably lower than that. In fact, it hit a record low in 2020 when the total fertility rate was 1.58.    MF  That's a sharp decline. In fact, though, you've got to go as far back as 1970, when the current series began, that's when it really was 2.4. What's really striking is if you look at that graph, the decline that happened between 1970 and about 1977 - very sharp decline there. Do we know what happened during that period? What were the factors driving that particularly?    JT  I think there can be all sorts of socio-economic factors affecting the fertility rate: improved access to contraception, reduction in mortality rates of children under five, which can result in women having fewer children. And also, more recently, as we've seen the average age of mothers going up, we might see some lower levels of fertility due to difficulties conceiving because of that postponement in childbearing.    MF  Sarah, I can see you want to come in on this.    SARAH CAUL  So my mother had three children by the time she was 30, and growing up I would just assume that that was the route I was going to take because it was what I've known. I am now 31 and I think if I was pregnant, that thought would scare me. I don't think I've grown up enough to have a child. I’m a dog mum, but those don't come into the statistics.    MF  So there was a bit of fanciful talk about people in lockdown finding - how should we put it delicately? - you know, things to do with their time, and that might lead to a boom in births. But that didn't really transpire?    JT  The increase in 2021 would actually coincide with conceptions across the second and third lockdowns. So yes, there was some speculation that people may have had enough of board games and were occupying their times in other ways, but I think it's actually more likely that it's a result of people delaying having children earlier on in the pandemic because of the uncertainty that was around at that point. And then towards the end of 2020 people had moved on from that and we saw a bit of an increase.    MF  Nonetheless though, historic data shows that there is a most common time of the year for conceptions to take place and that has something to do with the festive period, doesn't it?    JT  That's right. So the most common birthday is generally - almost always in fact - towards the end of September. So it doesn't take a statistician to work out that means the most popular time to conceive is over the Christmas and New Year periods. So that could be due to the Christmas festivities, but it might be also be something a bit less romantic than that. Some people, for example, might consider that there's an advantage to children being older in their year in school for example.    MF  The ONS also publishes the list of most popular baby names every year, and it is apparently one of the most downloaded and most popular bits of content on the ONS website. James, a lot of people scoff at this as an exercise. Is there any value in this list of baby names? Or is it something the ONS just produces because people like it?    JT  As you say it is one of our most popular releases and I think people use it to inform their own choices of names, and it can also tell us some really interesting things about culture in the country at the time. The top of the league table hasn't been that interesting, to be honest. So Oliver and Olivia have been the most popular names for the last few years, but it's beneath that that there's some really interesting trends emerging. So there's always a lot of interesting names that are going extinct. For example, last year, it was picked up a lot in the press about the name Nigel, which joined the list of critically endangered names like Gordon, Carol and Cheryl, and we do also see some really interesting influences of popular culture. And also royal babies always have a big influence. Some of the interesting ones from the last few years - we've seen some more Maeves and Otis’, which are characters from the TV series ‘Sex Education’, and even some Lucifers from the series of the same name. But generally you'd expect there to be positive associations with baby names so you do almost always see an influence of royal babies - we've already seen that with George but might be predicting a rise in Archies with Prince Harry’s son.    MF  And it’s quite interesting, seeing the cyclical thing with names that you might have associated with previous generations coming back into popularity, and Archie is a great example of that, isn't it? Sarah was one of the most popular girls names for a long time, certainly in the 80s and the 90s. But Sarah it's dropped out of the top 100 altogether.    SC  It has dropped down, but there's a Sarah in every single generation in my family. I think we're all named after each other. So my family is doing its best to keep it alive.     JT  Just a bit of a question for you. Where would you put the name Miles in the ranking?    MF  Well, it’s probably not in the top 100 James.    JT  Yeah, I'm afraid it's not quite top 100 material, but it is number 144. There were 390 Miles in 2020. And it's actually been on a bit of a roll recently. So that's the highest ranked it's been since 2002.    MF  Perhaps it’s the growing popularity of this podcast James, or maybe something else at work. Anyway... One thing worth noting about this before we move on, it should be pointed out that producing the baby names list is not an expensive exercise for the ONS.    JT  No, the data is very straightforward to collect. It's just a matter of compiling it into something that can be easily accessible and interesting for people to look at.    MF  And it's also one of the reasons that we don't compare the spelling of different names, because there's this long running thing isn't there about how if you added up the different spellings of the name Muhammad, then that would be the most popular boys name in England. That's not something the ONS does because, quite simply, we're just seeing the spelling that people enter on the system.    JT  Yeah, that's exactly right. And I think increasingly that could become even more of a task to compile those, because we're seeing an increasing use of shortened versions of names or alternative spellings. And if we were to try to compile those into one then that would definitely increase the time that we spent on it.    MF  Well, there you are, everything you need to know about baby names and - more seriously - the measurement of births and fertility. Plenty more information of course on the ONS website.    With that, we must turn to the other end of life, and that is measuring deaths - a topic which has been very much in the news for the last couple of years since the outbreak of the pandemic. Right at the centre of that has been my colleague Sarah Caul, who's sat with us this afternoon. Sarah, you're recognised for your achievements during that period with an MBE, official honour, which you collected from Windsor Castle.    SC  It was definitely very surprising. I wasn't expecting it, but I'm very thankful for it. It's quite a proud moment in my life. If you ever see my mum, she'll just scream at you: “My daughter’s got an MBE”, so that's always nice.    MF  Recognised now then as an authority in this area - it's fair to say that the ONS was publishing this list of weekly deaths very quietly, almost unnoticed, for many years. And then of course, sadly, that changed at the start of the pandemic.    SC  With ‘weekly deaths’ it did have a small audience, to the point where they were considering actually not publishing it anymore. Pre-pandemic it wasn't a very large part of my job, because it was just something very quick and easy to do. My main analysis would be on annual data - we release annual data the summer after the end of the reference period. We would look at different causes of death and see where we could investigate further to help monitor the picture of what people are dying from, and if that can be prevented.    MF  That all changed of course March / April 2020 with the arrival of COVID-19.    SC  We started quite early thinking of what we could do with COVID and we added just one line into the spreadsheet, which was the number of deaths. It went from something like five to over 100 in one week and we were like “okay, we have to do a lot more of this now”. It just grew bigger and bigger because we were having more and more deaths and we needed to get out, as quick as possible, as much information as we could. We would be doing something that would usually take us months to do in a matter of days, every week. And we're actually still doing it to the same level now because we are still seeing COVID death - it hasn't completely gone away.     MF  Incredible demand for information from government, from everybody, of course - desperately concerned about what was happening. There was suddenly this incredible focus and attention, and huge pressure, on you to get those numbers out very quickly.    SC  Those first few months were quite a blur, because we were publishing weekly and monthly and were constantly adapting and constantly trying to figure out what people were interested in seeing. And getting that information out into the public domain is probably the most challenging time that I've had here. I don't think I've ever worked at that pace before. But we have got so many experts in the health analysis and life events area that we're in. We had expert coders, experts in different causes of death. It was great to see everybody come together and work really well together. Despite the enormous amount of pressure, we were having to deliver things that would normally take us months in days, and sometimes hours.    MF  Your team were actually among the first to see the full impact, because there wasn't so much testing going on among people who have been infected. And it was in those mortality figures that the real impact was first being revealed.    SC  It wasn't until our death certificate information came out, because testing was so limited in the early days, that you could kind of see the impact, and see how quickly it was increasing.    MF  How do we gather those numbers?    SC  So when somebody dies, the informant - or family member usually - will register the death, usually within five days, but depending on if it needs to go to a coroner, it could take months or even years to register that death. And we don't know about a death until it is registered. When that information gets put through all of the causes of death listed on the death certificate comes through to us at the same time with an assigned underlying cause of death, as well as contributory cause of death. So we have all of that information on each and every death registered in England and Wales.    MF  And it's very important to understand you can have more than one cause of death because this is very relevant to understanding how many people might actually have died because of COVID.    SC  The majority of deaths, regardless of cause, have more than one cause listed on the death certificate because you have complications, and one cause could lead to another cause. So the way we categorise it is deaths ‘due to’ COVID - where COVID was the underlying cause of death or any other condition - and then deaths ‘involving’ it - so where it was mentioned on the death certificate as the underlying cause or a contributory factor.    MF  Do you think a lot of people were actually confused by that?    SC  One of the things that people struggled to understand sometimes during the pandemic was that this is a different number to the public health measure. So somebody could test positive for COVID-19 but not have COVID-19 on the death certificate, because it didn't contribute to the death. So the example that gets told quite a lot is if somebody tests positive and then gets hit by a bus, it's very unlikely that COVID will be mentioned on the death certificate.    MF  And that's absolutely vital in understanding how many people have died ‘from’ COVID as opposed to a death ‘involving’ COVID.    SC  Yeah, so it's very important. The public health measure’s great because it's really fast, and it gives us a more instant knowledge of what's happening. Our statistics come out about 11 days later, but it's where COVID contributed to the death, and not just was present time of death    MF  That helps us to really understand what the mortality impact of COVID-19 has been so far.    SC  It is really important. So from the start of the pandemic to the week ending 13th of May, we know there's about 195,000 death certificates that had COVID on them, and that's the whole UK as we've worked with colleagues in Northern Ireland and Scotland to bring a UK figure together, as usually we only report on England and Wales. And then that enabled us to do further investigations about who was most at risk of dying from COVID. And we did a lot by age, place of death and any breakdowns we thought possible to try and help identify those most at risk.    MF  Another great strength you might say of the ONS numbers is the comprehensive nature of the way the information is gathered centrally and reported very quickly. And that was evident during the pandemic when you saw the UK numbers coming along and influencing policy decisions really quite rapidly, compared to similar countries around the world. Central to that is the whole concept of ‘excess deaths’. That's a good objective measure of impact, regardless of what doctors have written on the death certificate. Sarah, tell us how that works, particularly what is its statistical value, and what's it been saying?    SC  We use ‘excess deaths’, which is the number of deaths we see in a period compared to what we would expect - and to get the expected number we use an average of the previous five years. By doing this, it takes into account the direct and indirect impact of COVID, so we have a fuller measure. It's really useful as well for international comparisons, because we're not relying on everybody recording deaths in the same way. It's just a straightforward “how many deaths above what we would expect are we seeing?”    MF  And what has it shown so far - what has been the impact on excess deaths?    SC  So we've seen quite a high number of excess deaths during the pandemic. In 2020, we saw over 75,000 more deaths than we were expecting originally. In 2021 that is lower - we saw around 54,000 deaths more than we'd expect. And currently to date for 2022 we are seeing the number of deaths slightly below what we'd expect looking at our five year average.    MF  Do we know yet - at the least the early indications - for what this might all mean for life expectancy?    SC  We have released some life expectancy statistics for 2018 to 2020 as we do three-year combined, and we do see a bit of a dip in the last year because of the high number of deaths in 2020, which was due to the pandemic. We're still seeing the numbers are significantly higher than at the start of our time period, which was 2001 to 2003. Somebody in England in 2018 to 2020 would live to about 79 years as a male, or 83 years as a female. Whereas in 2001 to 2003 it was more like 76 years old for males and 81 years old for females.    MF  So in recent history we've seen these really quite pronounced increases in life expectancy for men and women.    SC  People are living longer. It’s increased more for males than it has for females. It's reducing that inequality gap, because we do see that women do tend to live longer.    MF  Do we know why men are catching up with women in terms of life expectancy? Is it lifestyle, nature of work perhaps?    SC  There is a lot more of a decline in heart diseases, and especially in males, so I think that could indicate healthier choices, which would then increase somebody's life expectancy.    MF  Another important concept when understanding how the ONS looks at mortalities is the whole question of ‘avoidable deaths’. So how does that work and what is it been telling us?    SC  So ‘avoidable mortality’ is defined as a cause of death that is either preventable - so for example COVID and appendicitis is included in this – or are treatable - so this would be different types of cancer. For those aged under 75 in 2020, 22.8% of all deaths in Great Britain were considered avoidable. This is around 153,000 deaths out of 672,000. The categories where we've seen the biggest increase since the start of our time series was alcohol and drug related disorders, which is the only group of causes where the mortality rate is significantly higher in 2020 when compared to 2001. But the biggest driver of avoidable mortality would be the cancers.    MF  So those figures for avoidable death might suggest then that there is still considerable disparity in life expectancy between different groups.    SC  So we see through our data that those living in the most deprived areas have a substantially higher rate of death from avoidable causes - with deaths due to COVID-19, drugs and alcohol being notably higher in the most deprived areas. Avoidable deaths accounted for 40% of all male deaths in the most deprived areas of England, compared to 18% in the least deprived areas in 2020. And then we see the difference again for females. It was 27% of deaths in 2020 in the most deprived areas, and then 12% in the least deprived areas. So this gap in avoidable mortality between the most and least deprived areas - it's actually at its highest level since 2004 for males, and since the data began in 2001 for females.    MF  James what are the factors that are driving those disparities which are, on the face of it, pretty serious?    JT  The difference between the most and least deprived areas is one of the most striking statistics we produce actually. And I think it really shows the importance of looking beyond those top level figures. And that's the ability we have here to look at the minute detail of the data. I mean, there's all sorts of factors that can go into life expectancy. So there are things like access to health care, nutritional aspects - there's plenty of things that can drive that gap, but it's really, really striking and definitely needs looking into.    MF  What's the direction of our work in this area? Because for some areas are we not seeing actually a sustained reversal of life expectancy, not just shorter life expectancy, but one that's actually getting shorter.    JT  I think you mentioned earlier Miles about how this mortality data had kind of risen from obscurity I think. During the COVID pandemic the spotlight has been shone on deaths and Coronavirus itself, but really there's going to be a period where we're really going to have to make best use of that data to look at the indirect effects of Coronavirus as well. So, take for example just within the pandemic we saw a big increase in alcohol related deaths in 2020, and that tallies with other research that shows that patterns of drinking have changed during that time with heavy drinkers drinking more. So beyond the pandemic as well - we're looking at things like delays to treatment times for certain diseases. So there’s plenty of analysis still to do on the impacts of the pandemic.     MF  Deep in the recesses of the ONS data though, the causes of deaths that are recorded - some of them are, you have to say, they're unusual, they're quite remarkable. Sarah, can you give me some examples of some of the most unusual deaths that have been recorded?    SC  So I’ve got a few of the least common causes of death, and I don't want to scare anyone - the numbers that I've got here are over an eight year period, so they're very rare. So I don't know if you want to see if you can take a guess at how many people are ‘bitten or stung by non venomous insects and other non venomous arthropods’?    MF  People attacked by bees and wasps, that kind of thing.    SC  Not because they're venomous, but because of the incident themselves.    MF  Well I'd like to think there was a very small number. I don't know - over an eight year period - hopefully less than 50 or so?    SC  It was less than 50. It was 12 - which is more than I was expected. Another one we have is ‘fall involving ice skates, skis, roller skates, or skateboards’?    MF  Can be very dangerous. I don't know, 5?    SC  Three! Very good guess. I for some reason thought it would be more than being bitten or stung by an insect. We've got ‘victim of lightning’?    MF  Rare again. Highly unusual. I don't know... 10?    SC  Seven! You're quite good at the guesses. I’m very impressed.     MF  You know, you hang around the ONS long enough and you start to get a feel for these things. What do we think is the most unusual cause of death that we've recorded?    SC  We've got a lot that only have one death. One of the ones that springs to mind is ‘bitten by rat’. I did expect more people to die from that than some of the other ones we've got, like ‘contact with powered lawnmower’. But I guess that's quite a dangerous thing to do, especially if you're like me and start doing it in your flip flops. So yeah, dangerous.    MF  Definitely not recommended.   So we've looked at births and we've looked at deaths. But what's the balance between the two at the moment, James, and what's the impact on our population of all this overall?    JT  Population change is driven by the number of live births and the number of deaths and the balance between those, but also the migration that takes place each year. So the difference between the number of births and the number of deaths is a component known as ‘natural change’. Over the last decade or so, although we've generally seen more births than deaths, we've actually seen a narrowing of the gap. So all else being equal, that means that the population growth will slow. Also, we did actually see a blip in 2020 when for the first time for a while the deaths exceeded births, but that's going to be due to the very high number of deaths that we sadly had from Coronavirus in that year.    MF  And that was highly unusual - the first time in many years we've seen that.    JT  Yes, that's right. So the general trend has been more births than deaths and we've seen a return to that in 2021.    MF  Well, there we are, proof that the ONS really does cover us from the cradle to the grave.  ‘Statistically Speaking’ comes to you from the Office for National Statistics. I’m Miles Fletcher, thank you very much for listening. Join us for the next episode, which you can hear by subscribing to this podcast on Spotify, Apple podcasts and all the other major podcast platforms.   Our producers at the ONS are Julia Short, and Steve Milne.    ENDS
Evolution of the Economy: The science of measuring rapid change in a complex, globalised and increasingly turbulent economic situation.
23-05-2022
Evolution of the Economy: The science of measuring rapid change in a complex, globalised and increasingly turbulent economic situation.
Our topic this time, and it's a big one, is the economy. The science of measuring rapid change in a complex, globalised and now increasingly turbulent economic situation. In this episode Miles is joined by second permanent secretary Sam Beckett, and head of inflation, Mike Hardie, to look at how the ONS is keeping on top of rising prices, and how two of the biggest economic shocks in recent history have helped shape the Office for National Statistics' (ONS) current approach to collecting its key economic data.    TRANSCRIPT:   Miles Fletcher Sam, one angle I'd like to explore with you is the extent to which everything has changed recently, and the way that the ONS measures the UK economy, the extent to which that was informed by the experience of what happened 14 years ago now and the financial crisis. Could you talk us through what happened there in terms of the ability of the statistical system to actually spot what was going on? And what lessons were learned during that period?    Sam Beckett  Yes, certainly. That is going back quite a while now, isn't it? But I think one of the key things that you can really compare and contrast with where we are now compared to then, is about the timeliness of GDP. Back at the time of the global financial crisis the Office for National Statistics was very slow to spot the turning point. We were dealing with crucial data for the economy's output. And it was probably about six months before we were able to sort of scale the downturn in the economy and see the economy going into recession.    MF  Meanwhile, during that period, of course, people were being hit quite badly by that economic downturn. But the official statistics that were available had nothing to say about what was happening.    SB  No, that's right. So we would have been waiting to find out the extent of the downturn as people were seeing it hit their livelihoods, for something like six months back in 2008. If you fast forward then to the experience that we've had over the pandemic. You know, our monthly GDP statistics are out about six weeks after the period they refer to so you're getting a very timely indicator on what is happening to the real economy now. So you can really compare a sort of six months gap to a six weeks gap now. And if you think about the way the pandemic played out with, you know, the economy being closed down to try and limit transmission and then opened up again successively, and in the waves, if we'd been waiting three months or six months to find out what was happening, it really would have been a hopeless situation. But we got those very timely official statistics on GDP, but not only those but even more timely statistics from business surveys, and opinions and lifestyle surveys that we've done, where we can actually get a two week turnaround on what is happening to the economy and how people are responding.   MF  So it was really a question of learning from that experience and putting in place the kind of mechanisms that can help us as a country to actually find out what was going on closer to the point it was actually happening out there in the real world. Has the rest of the world learned that lesson as well, or is the UK among countries that have been quicker onto this do you think?    SB  We're certainly one of only a handful of countries that publish a monthly GDP figure. So I think in that big kind of headline and official statistic, we're still in a relatively select group that publish as frequently as monthly and as close to the time. We're also looking at financial card transactions data; we are looking a lot at admin data on the labour force, and trying to bring together a host of statistics that shine a light on what is going on, on the ground during the economy. And I think we count ourselves amongst a relatively small group of national statistical institutes that are cutting edge in their use of innovative data sources.    MF  So by the time the pandemic then comes along, two years ago now, the ONS is in a better state to actually find out what's happening, but nevertheless, was there a certain extent to which the organisation had prepared for another downturn like 2008, rather than what actually happened which nobody had foreseen, a widespread pandemic including a serious risk to life?    SB  Indeed, I mean, who would have thought that you know, we would have been hit by a pandemic of such a global scale and impact? I think one of the things that is a huge advantage for the government and the UK economy has been to have this objective handle on the level of infection out in the community. And that is something that the Office for National Statistics signed up to deliver really early on in the pandemic. So, our COVID infection survey, which has now swabbed millions of people on their doorstep, gave us a great handle on just how many people have had COVID, not just relying on the data of people who were turning up at doctors and hospitals, who had symptoms already. So you know, the COVID infection survey was a more random sample of the community and gave us that objective handle on how many people had COVID and indeed, some of them asymptomatic, you know, no symptoms of COVID but tested positive on the doorstep and that gave us a great insight over the pandemic and helped advise the government on what should be done to try and limit transmission.    MF  So meanwhile, as well as setting up that very important survey, there were a lot of other very quick changes that were put in place as well to measure the economic impact, the impact on individuals, on businesses as well. Can you talk us through some of the work that was done there to give that very quick turnaround, the fast indicators, that quick view of how items in the shops are being affected; how people in the workforce were being affected; and how the country and the effects of lockdown - to what extent they were actually hitting the economy in real time?    SB  I mean, starting with those quick turnaround surveys, there's two really that are really good companions to each other. The first is the business insights and conditions survey - and that surveys about 40,000 businesses and asks them questions around, you know, what is happening to their customer base, what is happening to their workforce. And there's about a two-week turnaround on that information. So, we could ask questions of businesses about how many of their staff, for example, they were intending to put on furlough and get that information just two weeks later to give us a handle on what a big uptake there would be on that scheme. The companion one is the opinions and lifestyle survey and through that we were able to ask people things like were they wearing a mask when they went to the shops? You know, were they staying at home as per the guidance and what were they leaving the home to do? And you know, were they washing their hands more and all those non pharmaceutical interventions that were so important in controlling the early stages of the pandemic. And again, between that sort of survey of households and individuals and businesses, you could track those two sides of how the pandemic and the government's measures to control it were impacting on people's lives and livelihoods.    MF  So in the old world of statistics, where paper forms would have been sent off, we'd have been able to produce an estimate in, ooh I don't know, a couple of months. But actually with the onset of the pandemic, this information was being fed into government, directly into government within a matter of a few days and informing that response, the actual action that was being taken on the ground.    SB  Absolutely. And I think also looking at some of our more traditional statistics, there had to be huge effort to keep the show on the road. Labour market statistics, I mean, incredibly important, over a period of economic turbulence, we had to go from what had been a face to face survey to a telephone based survey. And we reinforced that picture by getting information from payrolls from HMRC’s PAYE database, to understand what was happening to the labour market and keep that total picture, even though our standard survey had to move rapidly to a telephone based one. But I should add, you know, when people think about that admin data, I would like to emphasise that we're incredibly careful that none of that would identify anything about individuals. And we're extremely careful to ensure that we don't collect data that we don't need and that everything is de-identified.    MF  And that's a very important point now, because it's not just a question of people taking part in surveys is it? It's about the ONS having relationships with the credit card companies, for example, with mobile phone providers as well. And while these huge datasets give a fantastic up to the minute picture of of what's going on - money being spent and how movement is being affected as well - people are going to be understandably concerned about government having access to that sort of data. So how do we ensure that that is working in the public interest, only producing information that's genuinely needed for the public good?     SB  Our reputation rides on treating people's data incredibly carefully, and by abiding by all the regulations that are appropriate to personal data and business data. So we're incredibly scrupulous and careful in this regard. We don't gather data that can identify people if it is not needed, and we have got very reliable methods to de-identify data before we use it for analysis or indeed publish it. So you know, that's incredibly important to maintaining public trust in our statistics.    MF  So what have we been doing to try and measure the individual impacts that some of the price rises we've seen recently have had on households with different incomes?    SB  We are facing a period of some time to come where I think this is going to be incredibly high profile in the public debate about the challenges of the economy and what people are facing and indeed of measurement for us as an office of statistics. What we've been doing is trying to think about ways in which you can dig under that very average national figure of inflation. Now that is going up and most forecasters, such as the Bank of England will expect it to go up further, but it does, as you say, fail to show how different people can be impacted. You know, if they drive a lot and the cost of fuel has gone up a lot, relatively poor households spend a high proportion of their money on energy bills and on food and we know that both of those categories have been affected. So we have published some statistics that seek to look at inflation cut by different income brackets of households.    MF  Given that there is now so much data from supermarket scanners, from credit cards, from an incredible range of digital sources. What are the limits of all this do you think?    SB  Data is a by-product of the productive economy these days, isn't it? You know, data is being produced in all the other activities that we undertake online in our lives. So along with that, computing power has got so much cheaper and you put those two things together, and you just have this enormous capacity to measure activity in so many different ways, and so much more up to date, I mean, compared to anything we could have done, instead of 10 years ago, or 20 years ago, and the cost of them has come down massively. And with that, the sort of potential to get insight from them has expanded.    MF  Now we’ve mentioned GDP several times of course – that’s Gross Domestic Product - the traditional very long-established way of measuring activity in the economy. And it's held by many still to be the single most important national economic statistic. But at the same time, there's a debate going on at the moment about the continuing usefulness and relevance of GDP, particularly as it takes no account of the environmental dimension as well. And of course, in this country and internationally, that environmental dimension and climate change has become evermore important. So what are we doing as an organisation to factor the environment into the economic picture?    SB  GDP is an important measure of the productive economy. I think it's here to stay. But even in terms of it measuring the productive economy we're continually trying to improve its quality and make it more timely as we've talked about, but also more granular, you know, get more of a sense of what is happening down at a more granular level of geography. What we're trying to do is develop further, all aspects of our kind of economic welfare measures and bring things into the kind of spotlight that GDP has that are really important to all our futures. And I think, you know, climate and net zero, and those environmental statistics are one area where we're working really hard to try and give them a due prominence. I mean, we are relatively far ahead of international averages in terms of our level of development here. We've been publishing natural capital accounts for some 10 years. So we're starting from a good base, but there's so much more we can do. So, we've got two strands of work here. First, we've got an approach which tries to extend that concept of GDP, the production and asset boundaries that it measures to natural capital in the environment, as you've mentioned, but also human capital, as well. You know, the extent to which the skills of the UK workforce are being enhanced, and other aspects of economic activity, which currently fall outside of GDP, like household production, like unpaid for household work, which also really ought to be in your concept of how productive you are as an economy. So, we're developing this suite of measures that sort of extends the national accounts into these harder to measure areas that we also know are really important to our sense of economic progress and prosperity as a nation. And so that's that sort of integrated set of extending the concept of GDP to these broader concepts. But also, alongside that, we are doing some things that are a little bit more tactical and fleet of foot. They have a framework to them, like our Climate Statistics Portal, but that brings together all kinds of climate statistics from across government into a kind of one stop shop for users to explore things like climate and weather and emissions by different area, impacts and mitigations and provide insights from that. Now, not in a way that you can really aggregate with the GDP number, but in a way that would give you sort of broad insight as to progress towards net zero and what is happening to our climate and weather. So, this is a huge agenda. We call it the ‘Beyond GDP’ agenda, something where we are a relatively leading internationally but so much more work that we can do. We've got some really interesting stuff coming out later this month that will look at some of these issues and you can obviously catch up with that on our website.    MF  So much more change still to come. Finally, Sam Beckett, a very wise economist once said  - slightly tongue in cheek – that the chief function of economic forecasting is to make astrology seem respectable. Do you think the point will come at ONS when the data becomes so good and so rapid, that actually the ONS could get into the whole business of forecasting the economy with a great deal of accuracy?    SB  Well, I think we are increasingly getting up to the moment, if I can put it like that in terms of our economic statistics. Yes, there's still some time lag between the observation and the publication of the data in in most cases, but we're getting closer and closer. And we are using techniques where even where some data might be missing, we can use sophisticated economic modelling techniques to bring it up to date. So, a good example there would be if we didn't have a full local breakdown of GDP data for last month, we could make up for that using what we know about the other areas, and how they changed in GDP, and also the past performance of the missing areas. So, we can put together this picture that brings things really up to date using some of those modern techniques. I think the world of measurement is different from the world of forecasting, quite fundamentally. And, you know, we leave that to colleagues at the Office for Budget Responsibility and the Bank of England, who do kind of look ahead and try and paint that future picture. But the two are interconnected. And I think you can only produce good forecasts, if you've got really reliable readings on what is happening now and what past trends have been. So, they are hand in glove and I wouldn't want to say those were two distinct but we do have our own particular objective, which is about you know, economic and societal measurement. We're not yet in that forecasting game. But we are bringing it as up to the minute as possible.    MF  So, while not actually trying to predict the future, at least we can measure the very, very recent past. Sam, thank you very much for speaking to me.    Now, after decades of relatively low inflation, rising prices are back in the news. Tracking the impact of that on households is of course, vitally important work and at the ONS, that's the responsibility of the head of inflation, Mike Hardie.     Well, Mike, anyone who follows the news and particularly recently with concern about the rising cost of living will understand the importance of inflation. But there are lots of different measures of it. Can you talk us through the different ways in which ONS measures inflation, and why each of them is significant?    Mike Hardie  So we have a range of inflation measures. The first family of statistics are consumer price statistics. And so we have the consumer prices index which most people will be familiar with and the consumer prices index including owner occupied housing costs, and they are our macro economic measures of inflation that are based on economic principles. We also have a second group of statistics which are called the household cost indices, and they are specifically designed to measure the changing costs and prices faced by different household groups. And that completes our family a consumer price statistics. And then beyond those, we produce business prices. So those measure what we describe as output or ‘factory gate’ prices. So those are the prices of goods leaving the factory gate and we also produce input prices as well. So all of the component parts that are used in the production process to produce a final product, how the price of those has changed over time, too. And that completes our business statistics. And then beyond that, we also produce house prices as well, which is very topical at the moment given the buoyant housing market in the UK.    MF  And underlying all those different measures of inflation is a very large data gathering operation. Now, there's a lot of change going on in that area at the moment, but first of all, describe for us how this traditionally has been done.    MH  Traditionally, in order to produce our consumer price statistics, we have sent price collectors out across the UK. We have over 300 price collectors, they go to over 140 different locations in the UK, with mini clipboards, and they go into stores and they price a range of different items. So at the start of the year, we construct a large shopping basket, a virtual shopping basket, which is based on what UK consumers spend their money on. And there's a list of approximately 700 different items. And we send the price collectors out to collect information on those items. And we also have some collection within the ONS as well. So we have a couple of teams that go online and collect a wide range of prices too. We also have some admin data as well. So for example, we get admin data on how the price of insurance has changed. And then we aggregate all of that data together to construct our consumer price statistics.    MF  Rail fares of course are always a big driver of inflation as well. Where does that come from at the moment?    MH  So that comes directly from the uplift that consumers face every year. So, when rail fares are increased on an annual basis, we capture that increase in our inflation measures. But one of the developments that we're actually undertaking at the moment is to move to using data from the rail delivery group. So that's essentially a census of all rail journeys in the UK. So, it gives us a much more detailed picture of how rail prices are changing across the country.    MF  So, we have groups of people out with clipboards, moving up and down the aisles in the supermarket; people looking at the web; some companies like rail companies, obviously providing information about their fares. But was that sufficient to provide a really good accurate measure of inflation or was it felt that there was much more that can be done    MH  So, it was sufficient to provide a high -level accurate measure of inflation. These are economy wide averages that we publish on a monthly basis. We're moving away from the manual collection that I described, where we send price collectors out into stores, where we are working with a number of leading retailers to get access to their electronic point of sale data. So, whenever you go to a supermarket for example, and spend money on your weekly shop, that information is captured by the retailer. We have a number of partnerships in place. Co-Op are one of the retailers that are happy to be named, where we get information directly from their supermarket tills directly to our systems at ONS, and we can use that data then instead of sending people into stores to compile our inflation estimates. And that data is extremely detailed. So, when we send people into store obviously there's cost implication to that. And they collect prices of narrowly defined items. So, they may for example, go in to collect the price of a loaf of bread off the shelf - we try to price the most commonly available item. What the electronic point of sale data will give us is a census of all of the prices within that store, and more importantly, not just the prices, but how much of each product have been purchased by consumers. So that fixed basket approach that I mentioned, where we set the basket at the start of the year, that will change likely for areas of the basket where we're using these new data sources, because it'll essentially be a dynamic basket that updates every month because we will have a summary of what consumers are spending their money on in real time which is really exciting.    MF  That's a real step change in approach then. How does the UK compare - are other countries doing this, moving away from the traditional approach into this much more dynamic and data driven way of setting inflation?    MH  It’s the general direction of travel. So other National Statistics Institute such as the Netherlands and Australia have been doing this. It's really difficult to do, because utilising those new data sources such as scanner data requires the development of new methods, and also new systems as well. So just to give you an idea of the size of some of these data sources. We currently use around 200,000 price quotes to compile our consumer price statistics every month at the moment. And it's likely we'll be moving to several hundreds of millions of prices every month. So, we need to change our systems in order to manage the sheer size of the data essentially.    MF  This really is big data in action.   MH  It is really exciting and gives you additional insights into changing consumer spending patterns and how prices are evolving across the UK economy.    MF  Does that mean the annual updating of the basket of goods - which is always quite a popular occasion as we look to see what's in and what’s out - is that going to go then?    MH  Not in the short term. So, there are specific areas of the basket that we're targeting with these new data sources.  I've mentioned groceries, we've also touched on rail fares already and also used cars. But for the remainder of the basket, we will use traditionally collected data, so sending people out into stores and data that we've received directly and collect at ONS. So, we will still need to update that basket to reflect wider consumer spending patterns. Also, if you think about groceries, we have these new data sources for larger retailers. But in order to ensure that our statistics remain representative of price changes in the economy, we also need to capture prices from smaller retailers as well.  Some of them won't have the facilities to provide us with data - so there will still be an element of manual collection.    MF  Now all this change - and very exciting change too - comes at a time of heightened concern about the rising cost of living and also the frequently expressed opinion that what appears to be the headline rate of inflation doesn't actually reflect people's own experience of rising prices that they face, particularly recently in the supermarket. How has the ONS been responding to that?    MH  So, the inflation measures that most people are familiar with such as the consumer price index is an average and when you dig into that average there will be some variation. So, everyone has their own personal rate of inflation depending on what you spend your money on. So, in terms of how we responded as an organisation, you can go on to the ONS website, and use our personal inflation calculator and outline what you were spending your money on every month. And based on that spending pattern we can work out your personal rate of inflation and how that compares to the headline. We're also undertaking some work on a set of measures called the household cost indices. And these are designed to measure the changing costs and prices faced by different household groups. So, you can break down those statistics into income decile you can break them down to expenditure decile, households with or without pensioners, and with or without children. So, you can see how changing prices and costs are affecting different household groups. And another piece of work that we're doing at the moment that’s particularly interesting is we are aiming to publish over the next month a low cost index. So, this has been widely covered in the media, where some consumers who purchase value brands in supermarkets are being forced to move to more expensive brands because those value brands are no longer available. So, what we are looking at is for the price of those lower priced products when people are forced to move to higher priced products, what that means for price changes and the implications for the household budget on a weekly basis. So that's another piece of work that we're doing to provide further insights into the recent rise in the cost of living and how that's impacting different groups of people.    MF  And that could shed important light on people's actual experience of shopping when they find out that the cheap packet of pasta they used to buy simply isn't there anymore.    MH  Yeah, so one of the fundamental principles of a price index is that we control for quantity and quality changes over time, because we want to isolate that price change. So, what you've just described there wouldn't necessarily be captured by a price index, but it obviously has implications for people in terms of the household budget. So, we're looking at producing, you know, a range of supplementary statistics to complement our headline measures of inflation, to provide insights into these types of changes, which are having an impact on people's household budget.    MF  Now one of the big debates, one of the big issues surrounding the measurement of inflation in recent years, has of course been the retail prices index. Tell us a little bit about that - the criticisms of the RPI as a statistic, as a measure of inflation, and how ONS has responded to that.    MH  So we currently produce the retail prices index as a legacy measure of inflation. Our position on this statistic has been clear for some time. We think it is a poor measure of inflation, that tends to over or underestimate inflation. And we don't think it has the potential to become a good measure either. And if you were to address all of the shortcomings of the retail prices index, you move close to our headline measure of inflation, which is the CPIH, which is the consumer prices index including owner occupiers housing costs. So, we made a proposal to bring the data sources and methods from the CPIH into the RPI and that is due to take place in 2030. But we only produce it currently as a legacy measure as we acknowledge as an organisation that it is used for a wide variety of purposes across the economy.    MF  So, we've had the CPI measure of inflation for quite some time. It's very important of course, it's used by the Bank of England to target the reduction of inflation. It's also used very widely around Europe. But it doesn't include that measure of housing costs. Why is it so important to include housing costs as an element? What are the challenges of measuring that given that some people live in their own houses and other people rent them? That's the problem isn't it - trying to measure how those costs are changing for different people.    MH  It's a large part of people's expenditure every month. So, it's essential that it is reflected in our inflation measures. It's conceptually quite challenging to measure. So, we use an approach called rental equivalence and we use rental prices as a proxy for owning and maintaining and living in your own home. And we have very detailed information for the valuation office agency, which we use to compile our measure of owner occupiers housing costs.    MF  And that comes up essentially within a notional figure of what it would cost you to rent your own home.    MH  Essentially, and this is the direction of travel internationally as well. So other NSIs are moving towards using a measure including owner occupiers housing costs. At the moment, the consumer prices index is the Bank of England's inflation target and is widely covered in the media every month, but our aim in the medium term is to move our stakeholders towards using the CPI.    MF  Looking into the future then, a lot of exciting changes going on. And we continue to report inflation on a monthly basis. Can you see the time when perhaps there might be a more frequent reporting of inflation, perhaps even coming down to weekly or even daily?    MH  That is possible with the new data sources - we could produce more timely estimates. Producing our inflation statistics on a monthly basis is really challenging. It's quite a tight timetable, you know, to send price collectors out to bring in all admin data sources, and in future, the scanner data that we've discussed, as well. So, there's quite a tight turnaround. So, it's very likely that CPI and CPIH will continue to be produced on a monthly basis, but it is possible that we could produce supplementary statistics that are maybe more timely, but our focus at the moment is improving our headline measures of inflation.    MF  Inflation in the news, as it hasn't been for many years at the moment - you must be very conscious of the impact that your numbers have when they come out. Describe for us the importance of the work that you're doing.    MH  Well inflation statistics impact pretty much every aspect of UK society. They’re used to uprate pensions, government guilts, student loans, various benefits, taxes. So, we have a very low risk appetite in terms of transforming our statistics because it is absolutely essential that we get them right because the implications are enormous if we do not. And that's been one of the challenges in bringing in these new data sources and developing new methods and systems. We've had to move carefully. We're very ambitious, but it needs to be measured ambition, because we need to ensure that while transforming our consumer price statistics we get them right, and produce robust statistics that are used across the UK economy.     MF  Because once reported, there's no going back - there are no revisions to inflation are there?    MH  No, so RPI is an un-revisable index, so we do not revise. And for CPIH and CPI, there is some scope to revise the indices, but it would have to be extreme circumstances for us to do that. And thankfully, to date, we haven't had any errors in CPIH or CPI so we haven’t had to cross that bridge just yet.    MF  Thank you for listening to Statistically Speaking and please join us for our next episode, which is quite literally a matter of life and death. To ask a question or suggest ideas for future podcasts, please do so via our Twitter feed @ONSfocus. I'm Myles Fletcher and our producers at the ONS are Steve Milne and Julia Short.    ENDS